 Poster: A snowHead
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If you're reading it wrong then so am I. Not that that's unlikely.
By the way, I've noticed a few posts where GFS graphs have been embedded using links like this:
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| [img]http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MS_746_ens.png[/img] |
That Web site is continually updated with the latest GFS run, so if you do this then the image in your post will get updated too - potentially confusing for anyone reading it later.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyone been looking at the other models to see what they are forecasting?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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carled, I'm with you, I've been silently stalking your weather posts for ages.
If anyone cares it's snowing on mannlichen now, drizzle stuff in wengen.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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AxsMan, don't upset him, or he'll take his trout home. carled, we're not all philestines (sic).
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| stab wrote: |
carled, I'm with you, I've been silently stalking your weather posts for ages.
If anyone cares it's snowing on mannlichen now, drizzle stuff in wengen. |
Oooh, hang on, this could be all metaphysical and wotsit. I stalk your Wengen posts and you're stalking my posts... kind of a stalking black hole building up here...
The 12z wigglies aren't out yet, but the charts are and they look pretty darned good to me at first glance. Should create quite a nice set of wigglies. Tues/Weds is when it all starts getting white and snowy again folks. Have faith. Or just bog off and read snow-forecast if you like.
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carled, we all love you!! Hang on in!
PS Metcheck says 10 cms will fall next week but snow-forecast says only 5  Which one's right please?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| cathy wrote: |
carled, we all love you!! Hang on in!
PS Metcheck says 10 cms will fall next week but snow-forecast says only 5 Which one's right please? |
Neither. And Both. At least 10cms will fall next week and therefore 5cm will also have fallen. A falling tree makes a sound, a falling snowflake does not. Fresh does bloom the lilac that survives the winter chill. The sound of one hand clapping is "Cl...". You will meet a tall dark stranger wielding a large trout. He will smite the unjust mightily.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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carled, Brilliant. I love this thread. 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| carled wrote: |
| stab wrote: |
carled, I'm with you, I've been silently stalking your weather posts for ages.
If anyone cares it's snowing on mannlichen now, drizzle stuff in wengen. |
Oooh, hang on, this could be all metaphysical and wotsit. I stalk your Wengen posts and you're stalking my posts... kind of a stalking black hole building up here...
The 12z wigglies aren't out yet, but the charts are and they look pretty darned good to me at first glance. Should create quite a nice set of wigglies. Tues/Weds is when it all starts getting white and snowy again folks. Have faith. Or just bog off and read snow-forecast if you like. |
I like a broadly based analysis, so I read this thread AND snow-forecast.  At the moment you both seem to be in agreement, and more imprtantly are telling me what I want to hear!
Happy dance! happy dance! happy dance! 
P.S. when you are not in agreement, I always believe the source that predicts the most snow. Does that make me an optimist, or just misguided?
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no - you see the glass as 'half full' , makes for a much happier life
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You know it makes sense.
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to be honest with you all i now believe it will never snow again this season so have now booked my holiday in the sunny seaside resort of Essaouira Morocco for first week of May.
Go on weather prove we wrong, i dare ya
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Smokin Joe, my glands are up.. the trout are biting 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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red 27, does it hurt? Do the trout like them?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| RobCrock wrote: |
| no - you see the glass as 'half full' , makes for a much happier life |
Only briefly, but then it's time to refill it!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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twoodwar, yes, and I like it like that - that's why I dangle them in the river.
I see snow-met-fore-check-wetter-cast-club are predicting glasses will be filled and bunions will hurt like back-bottom-uggery between 3.54 pm on Saturday and 07.23 on wednesday week. Marvellous
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I've looked at snow forecast 3 times today...... predicting different levels of snowfall in Kranjs over the next 7 days on each separate occasion. Whats the point ????? I will be better off getting there and looking out of the window when I wake up on Sunday 9th.
Listen to Carled. I do now.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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See Fruity, you're actually in quite a good position if the charts come off as they're heading at the moment as the whole warm/cold clash has scooted off East (as I believe I may have already mentioned. Stop me if I'm boring you) and this has upped the chance of serious snow over there. Just had a look at the "wiggly" chart for KG and it is currently looking mighty fine indeed for you. See:
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carled, any good news on temps/possible snowflakes for the austrian alps anytime soon? I think that forecast there is for E.Europe right?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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carled, are you as entertaining in reality as you are virtually? If so, can I marry you? 
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There's nothing fundamentally WRONG with snow-forecast, they are using the same data, but they are just asking a computer to crunch numbers and produce very certain-looking, quantified stuff every six hours. It needs human interpretation to smooth out the wigglies and add lots of words like "possible" "could be as much as" "unless it moves faster than currently looks likely" or "impossible to say right now, mate".
It could also do with some kind of indication of reliability but that would confuse all the punters who just want numbers and no "ifs and buts". Really, when the models are all giving conflicting and rapidly changing information they should sometimes just put up a blank screen saying "our forecasts at the moment are such a pile of marmotte doo-doo so we're not going to insult your intelligence by publishing them"
However, there are so many people just begging for their intelligence to be insulted, and even to pay for it, that you can't blame them for obliging.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| pam w wrote: |
| There's nothing fundamentally WRONG with snow-forecast, |
Although it does use only one meteo model (GFS, see wigglies above) whereas there are several other models available to make informed judgements on (not that I have those skills). No one model, whether that by GFS or any of the others, is infallible, so best to look across all the forecast data that are available.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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You know it makes sense.
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carled, shame, we'll have to be at the airport by then.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Well, FWIW the GFS indications are beginning to show up on both Meteoschweiz and the Laax web site - both forecasting a return to winter overnight from Monday to Tuesday. Temps around Zurich on Mon 12 deg, on Tues 2 deg 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Ah - so that's where Kitzbuhel's hyooge dump pottered off to! Now just a little dump (but I'm still very happy! )
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Carled - anychance of the latest fancy diagram for the french alps for next week
arrive on saturday night, looked at a couple of evil forecasting sites, but obviously your graphs are 10 times better
i'm on my knees begging
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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snowscreen, this is for Morzine/Les gets/Avoriaz area apparently (the sticky at the top "Begiiners guide to forecasting' has a few links to the different area graphs:
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But are not most forecasts based on one model? Yes, of course forecasts are sometimes very wrong. I was sailing for week in November 2005 when the Met Office Shipping Forecasts had got it completely wrong, to the extent of failing to forecast even strong winds for the Solent when what actually materialised was a gale force 9. They got it spectacularly wrong all week, the weather was just being difficult. But to conclude from that that the Met Office are rubbish would be absurd. They have to turn a huge mass of data showing a vast range of potential local variation into a comprehensible 2 minute synopsis and forecast for entire swathes of the country.
If you pay (a lot of) money you can talk to a personal forecaster who will give you accurate, changing, local forecasts (“You should miss the worst of it, but give me a ring before you leave in the morning in case it starts moving a bit slower than we predict, or tracking a bit further north).
Services like snow-forecast, which do the whole world, every 6 hours and have to reduce the weather to a few numbers (wind speed, precipitation, temperature), and do it free of charge for punter, must be treated with suitable caution. You get what you pay for; good forecasting is extremely expensive because its manpower-intnsive and, however good, only accurate for small local areas.
Best take all the info you can get, treat it all with caution, and hope that someone who has the knowledge, and the inclination, to have a look at a range of models, and forecasts, and interpret it all in ways you can understand, is willing to do it for you, absolutely free of charge. Fortunately we have several such paragons on Snowheads! (where's the smiley with the halo?)
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right im going to ask. whats the grph for tignes/val area look like then. some snow if any over the next week would be sweet
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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it is snowing there at the moment (lightly) , based on the live Solaise webcam , we are arriving on the 9th and hoping for fresh snow too. I have no idea how to read these graphs so an eductaed response on Val/Tignes prospects of fresh snow would be great. Val D'Isere has stated it had 2cm of new snow last night , and that was not forecast on any websites and they are saying more snow today and tomorrow.
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FAQ
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(Do I need bigger Wigglies 