 Poster: A snowHead
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class, i saw the funny side though!!!
To be fair, all the speculation is just torture anyway, don't know why we bother
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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This is now getting faintly ridiculous. Take a look see at the latest ensemble run... doesn't matter where it's for, all of alpine region is afflicted by this at present.
So in the reliable timeframe we now have a good consensus on a brief one day dip in temps around the 28th Feb. Sadly not a lot of precipitation around to take advantage of. Then in the decent reliability stage, the cold plunge looks fairly certain now for around the 4th March and this is, happily, accompanied by snowy goodness.
Now where it all starts going a bit squirrel-shaped is from the 6th onwards. Entertainingly enough we have the high-res main run (thick green line) tootling off up to the dizzy old heights of 2000m freezing levels, whilst the control run (thick blue line) dives for the most amazing opposite extreme of siberian temperatures down to low resort level... There is a tantalising glimpse of sanity returning from the 12th/13 March as the main run suddenly realises it has dropped a donkey and it embarrasingly and rapidly flings itself off the climatic cliff of doom and tries to rejoin the control run down in the cold zone...
Quite what all this means is, putting it mildly, a pile of marmot doo-doo. It'll be worth referring back to this chart in a few days time just to see what the changes are as I cannot even conceive of a situation outside of a meteor strike (and even the GFS struggles to spot those) that can possibly create such an enormous disparity of a forecast model... sheer lunacy.
Mind you, I think Brian, in the past, has said that interesting times are afoot when the main run and the control run diverge significantly, so taking the above charts at face value, we're in for very interesting times indeed at some points over the next couple of weeks...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Don't know whether to smile or cry at the above post. Not going until the 29th March didn't plan on getting hit by a meteor in Zermatt but it would be different  Good photo opportunity.
Will watch with baited breath.
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carled,
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First chance of anything lower down (below 1500m) is Tuesday/Weds as things stand at present.
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thank you for your firm binding commitment to meet my request of tuesday snow 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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carled, Wow, that chart is certainly one for the album. As you say, they've agreed to disagree... Keep it coming, much appreciated. 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| carled wrote: |
| Mind you, I think Brian, in the past, has said that interesting times are afoot when the main run and the control run diverge significantly, so taking the above charts at face value, we're in for very interesting times indeed at some points over the next couple of weeks... |
On the sticky thread kitenski posted the following:
One thing to look out for is when the operational run and control run diverge from each other. This in my experience suggests that a new pattern is breaking and you should follow the subsequent GFS runs closely
Which appears to say pretty much the same thing. (Though I'm very disappointed to learn that it's not called the control run because it controls the weather.)
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No, no it can't go squirrel-shaped around the 6th, no. I'm leaving on the 8th and squirrel-shaped is not acceptable, wow no!!
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just to be clear that was a quote from Brian, not me!
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One thing to look out for is when the operational run and control run diverge from each other. This in my experience suggests that a new pattern is breaking and you should follow the subsequent GFS runs closely
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Sorry about the mistaken attribution. Anyway, the 12z run is now out and the 15degC divergence between main and control has disappeared - now they don't start to differ significantly until the 10th, and 'only' by about 7 C. The 4th/5th still looks good for some snow, assuming I've mastered the art of reading the wigglies.
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I thought I had mastered the wigglies......and now I'm crying again. (That GFS thing is too close to 46 13 for comfort Carled.....did you chose it on purpose?)
Fxxxxxxx
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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All that lovely precipitation is still around... it's just buggered off a few hundred miles to the east... sadly the cold/warm clash has shifted to the East as I hoped wouldn't happen. Anyone going skiing in Greece or Turkey soon?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Is Lech really going to get 30cm of snow on Saturday? Sounds a tad ambitous but SCGB think so and going there on the 8th March 
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carled, east of austria I assume as there is no percip here other than a light shower. Still a nice precip bump for the weekend forecast for austria, fingers crossed. Looks like more suncream for today.
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You know it makes sense.
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I mean REALLY East. Greece, Balkans and the like. I'm talking more about late next week, not this weekend.
Any precipitation around this weekend (to be fair, there is a good chance of a decent amount) will be rain until you're up at... hmmm... Dunno, maybe 1800-2000m?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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carled, looks like my punt on the Stubai glacier this weekend was a good one then 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Suddenly the latest runs are looking better for BSM area on fri-sat.
Still rain on the lowest runs, but more than a sprinkling up top.
4th/5th march is looking like a nice baby dump with low temps:)
How do I create a wiggle for a specific long/lat?
Tux
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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snow forecast showing considerable snow at mayrhofen on saturday (about 15cm ) and then a big dump on tuesday 9 about 35cm
rain at resort level though which is a shame
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| nick0861 wrote: |
snow forecast showing considerable snow at mayrhofen on saturday (about 15cm ) and then a big dump on tuesday 9 about 35cm
rain at resort level though which is a shame |
er... you ever been to Mayrhofen before? Rain at resort level there isn't too much of a problem, trust me...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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rain at resort level though which is a shame
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yes, rain's always gloomy, but more snow is badly needed, so we mustn't nitpick.
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Suddenly the latest runs are looking better
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Hmm. I'm not mad about "suddenly". They could "suddenly" change again, I suppose? I must go and read that thread about GFS properly again and learn more about it. Am driving back to the Alps Wednesday/Thursday. Have checked the chains.... if I have to kneel to put them on I shall take the opportunity to offer up a few words of gratitude.
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| carled wrote: |
| er... you ever been to Mayrhofen before? Rain at resort level there isn't too much of a problem, trust me... |
Very true from a skiing point of view, but it's always a nice touch when the resort itself is white too... but nick0861 don't be greedy... some of us aren't getting out at all again this season! 
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| nick0861 wrote: |
snow forecast showing considerable snow at mayrhofen on saturday (about 15cm ) and then a big dump on tuesday 9 about 35cm
rain at resort level though which is a shame |
Oh and stop with the snowforecast thing and "35cm of snow" some 9 or 10 days out or I'll have to slap you with a wet trout.
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| tuxpoo wrote: |
How do I create a wiggle for a specific long/lat?
Tux |
How indeed. Hmm. If only someone had created a thread called "Beginners guide to forecasting, GFS models?" and put it in as a sticky in, ooh, let's say the "snow reports" thread, eh?
What....?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| pam w wrote: |
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Suddenly the latest runs are looking better
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Hmm. I'm not mad about "suddenly". They could "suddenly" change again, I suppose? I must go and read that thread about GFS properly again and learn more about it. Am driving back to the Alps Wednesday/Thursday. Have checked the chains.... if I have to kneel to put them on I shall take the opportunity to offer up a few words of gratitude. |
Listen to the sensible lady. She knoweth what she talketh about.
Listen, I know how desperate some of you are for snow and all, but stop getting deluded about anything this weekend. I promise you it is too warm for any precipitiation (which is going to be patchy to say the least - some areas will get a serious downfall and some will get drizzle at best) to fall as snow much below 1800m... maybe 1500m at times as some colder air moves through. *Maybe* some will fall a bit lower if it happens overnight as the temps will drop a bit more, but it won't last long the next day if it does.
There is not (apart from the odd blip) going to be a significant cooldown until around Tuesday/Wednesday next week. At one point (a week or so back) it looked like the cooldown would be earlier, but it shifted back a few days ago. There is a very good chance from next Tue/Wed onwards of having decent falls of snow over the entire alpine region right down to "resort level" but predicting the amount is impossible to do, as, once again, it will be highly localised and one valley will get dumped on when another neighboring one stays dry. That's weather for you, I'm afraid.
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carled, you're bright eyed-and bushy tailed this morning...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| carled wrote: |
| tuxpoo wrote: |
How do I create a wiggle for a specific long/lat?
Tux |
How indeed. Hmm. If only someone had created a thread called "Beginners guide to forecasting, GFS models?" and put it in as a sticky in, ooh, let's say the "snow reports" thread, eh?
What....? |
None the wiser!?
Ill stick to the normal GFS and ensembles.
Tux
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| tuxpoo wrote: |
| carled wrote: |
| tuxpoo wrote: |
How do I create a wiggle for a specific long/lat?
Tux |
How indeed. Hmm. If only someone had created a thread called "Beginners guide to forecasting, GFS models?" and put it in as a sticky in, ooh, let's say the "snow reports" thread, eh?
What....? |
None the wiser!?
Ill stick to the normal GFS and ensembles.
Tux |
Click here http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=14852
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Looking at Engelberg, the GFS ensembles are still not in agreement over both temp and precipitation for the next 3 days, so anything could happen! Further afield there is still a huge divergance between operational and control runs....
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You know it makes sense.
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So things are not looking rosey for the end of the season months at the moment...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Timmaah, based on what exactly? Chamonix Meteo, f'rinstance, are confidently forecasting as far as Sunday. So no-one has any idea what next month will look like, let alone next week.
Comments like that are what fuelled last years unwarranted doom and gloom.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Timmaah wrote: |
| So things are not looking rosey for the end of the season months at the moment... |
They're neither looking rosy nor not rosy... the end of season months are still, ooh, about a couple of months away and as the GFS doesn't know for sure what will happen beyond about three days, I think that your comment is utter tripe, if you don't mind me saying?
(I think it's utter tripe even if you do mind me saying, to be honest, but I'm just trying to look polite)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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NOBODY BOTHER GOING SKIING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS! IT WILL SUCK (for me to have the slopes all to myself)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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er... you ever been to Mayrhofen before? Rain at resort level there isn't too much of a problem, trust me...
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yes i have - not moaning at all - have been watching with great interest this thread and i know what rain at resort level means there - only a shame in that last time i was there the whole resort was blanketed in snow which is noce - not greedy at all though
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Oh and stop with the snowforecast thing and "35cm of snow" some 9 or 10 days out or I'll have to slap you with a wet trout.
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you can keep your trout down your trousers for now - the 35cm of snow if forecast for next tuesday (not sure where the 9 in my post came from) - i make that five days from now
- even if it doesnt happen it has made me happy for the time beingski-finder,
skifinder - i wont mention my april trip to val thorens then
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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The bbc says it's going to snow in Scotland on Monday!!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Winterhighland website says it is going to snow most of the weekend!!!!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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and if anybody even begins to suggest that early March is "late season" I'll get my old trout out as well.....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Laax web site is confidently forecasting snow (but not a megadump, a good freshening though by the look of it) above about 1500 for Fri, Sat and Sun, snow line coming down the later you go on. IME they're usually pretty accurate.
Still doing the snow dance for mid-week though as that would suit me very nicely indeed thank you very much
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Being new to looking at info from the Wetterzentrale, things are looking very positive for the next week in the Alps? Seems like most of the alps are in for some colder times and also getting some amount of new snow? Or am I reading the info wrong?
Going to Canazei tomorrow, so fingers crossed
//fish
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