 Poster: A snowHead
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@Whitegold, it might help people if you provided some evidence if you are going to make these type of assertions.
When Mount Baker closed in March this year it had had about 165cm for the season. But it's not just about what had fallen but when and how. Most of this came in a short spell in January. Snowfall amounts in both February and March were less than 30cm and this combined with mild weather lead it to the early closure.
http://www.onthesnow.co.uk/washington/mt-baker/historical-snowfall.html
Of course that's very un Mt Baker like and it's looking a lot better so far this season.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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snow line still around 1800m in Tarentaise ??
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@stefoy4me, maybe a bit higher, but snowfall looks further east in any case.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
This evening and tomorrow's snowfall on WRF. Snowline looks like it could end up being a bit lower in the east where snowfall looks most focussed (Arlberg and parts of Tirol) up to 1500m.
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Just watching those animations, the snow lingers in Tyrol/Salzburgerland until the middle of Thurs, some good potential for accumulations at altitude, particularly along the north-side of the main Alpine ridge...Arlberg, Silvretta, Otztal, Zillertal and the Hohe Tauern look to be in the firing line...seems like it's going to be a White Xmas in Ischgl & Obergurgl!!
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| Quote: |
still around 1800m in Tarentaise ??
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2300m according to the ever cheerful Meteo France. 
Chamonix Meteo say something I've not seen before "precipitation refreezing while falling through the colder air stagnating in the valley". I don't know whether that would fall as sleet, or snow, or hail, or what. Nozawaonson?
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| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
still around 1800m in Tarentaise ??
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2300m according to the ever cheerful Meteo France.
Chamonix Meteo say something I've not seen before "precipitation refreezing while falling through the colder air stagnating in the valley". I don't know whether that would fall as sleet, or snow, or hail, or what. Nozawaonson? |
It falls as rain at altitude, snow or hail lower down.
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Zebra Striped Mountains?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| pam w wrote: |
| Zebra Striped Mountains? |
Actually freezing rain is more likely with a temperature inversion. That is, the rain freezes on contact with the ground, so you end up with ice everywhere.
One thing you can get in the polluted valleys is snow caused by the pollution acting as a nucleate, so you may have snow falling below the temperature inversion's FL, sun above. The snow is usually very light, 100g/liter or less and difficult to ski without the fattest of skis as you sink straight through. We had nearly a meter of this snow once near Grenoble and it was horrible skiing as you were up to your thighs in snow but skiing on the base with 80mm skis. Someone with me had 120mm skis and thought it was fantastic. Still I wouldn't drag 120mm boards around for years around here for the very rare superlight powder days.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@davidof, experienced that once driving up from Bourg St Maurice to Les Arcs, but very light. A metre of that kind of snow is amazing!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Got a really good feeling about 06Z*
*this is based on no weather reporting experience or knowledge whatsoever.
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| rob@rar wrote: |
| @davidof, experienced that once driving up from Bourg St Maurice to Les Arcs, but very light. A metre of that kind of snow is amazing! |
More pollution near Grenoble - it "snowed" for about 2 days.
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You know it makes sense.
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| davidof wrote: |
| More pollution near Grenoble - it "snowed" for about 2 days. |
In the interest of snow quality I'm going to recommend that everyone in the Tarentaise buys a VW.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@rob@rar, you got a dealership or something? 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@pam w, I'm not sure it'll make much difference as it looks like it passes through the French Alps quite smartly.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@Whitegold, it might help people if you provided some evidence if you are going to make these type of assertions.
When Mount Baker closed in March this year it had had about 165cm for the season. But it's not just about what had fallen but when and how. Most of this came in a short spell in January. Snowfall amounts in both February and March were less than 30cm and this combined with mild weather lead it to the early closure.
http://www.onthesnow.co.uk/washington/mt-baker/historical-snowfall.html
Of course that's very un Mt Baker like and it's looking a lot better so far this season. |
You might need a new calculator
Mount Baker got over 300cm snowfall in the 2014/15 season from Nov to May (opened in Nov / Dec, closed in Mar).
Yes, it was a bad season for Mount Baker last year (but still almost as good as an average Austria low-resort season). Normal service has resumed this year.
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@Whitegold, not quite sure what you mean by the calculator line?
I've put up some supporting evidence from a perfectly reputable source, but it could be wrong and as ever there are lots of ways you can count these things.
Have you got anything that says otherwise? As I said if you do then why not share it?
Regardless of what the total was it was how it fell that caused the problem. All early in the season and then very mild. And the closed very early.
But yes Mount Baker normally gets lots of snow. Happens to be a bit awkward for me to get there mind you.
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^ Using the same source. Just add up the Nov 2014 to May 2015 season.
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Europe and UK very hot this week...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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^^^^
Jeeezzz... time to unpack the budgie smugglers and slap on some sun cream me thinks
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@Spike107, same for east coast of US too.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| ^ Using the same source. Just add up the Nov 2014 to May 2015 season. |
Fair enough, but like I say the problem wasn't the overall snowfall, but the distribution during the season (all at one point) and the warm weather in the second half.
Either way fair to say Mount Baker normally gets a lot of snow. But still isn't any closer to where I live.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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my eyes hurt
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@nozawaonsen,
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Either way fair to say Mount Baker normally gets a lot of snow. But still isn't any closer to where I live.
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Me either
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You know it makes sense.
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GFS 12z keeps the pattern pretty much in place all the way through to the end of the year, although in the last few days suggests the Euro high might start to head north towards Scandinavia, but far too far off in FI to place any faith in.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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eugh
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Poster: A snowHead
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looks like xmas week might be the better week this year.......and thats not going to be that good anyway.
11 days of warm temps and skier crowds across Xmas week will not do the slopes/snow any favours!!!!!!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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SLF on the snow coming in the next day in Switzerland.
Weather forecast through Wednesday, 16.12.2015
During the night, precipitation will commence in the west and north. As the day progresses, the weather will brighten up increasingly from the west and in the south. The north and east will remain overcast and precipitation will fall until the evening. The snowfall level will be approximately 2000 to 2400 m in the west and 1600 to 2000 m in the east.
Fresh snow
By Wednesday evening the following amounts of snow will fall:
- Valais, northern flank of the Alps, northernmost regions of Grisons: 5 to 10 cm, but up to 15 cm in the Bernese Oberland
- Other regions: a few centimetres, remaining dry in the far south
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
The snowfall level will be approximately 2000 to 2400 m in the west and 1600 to 2000 m in the east
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Hmm. As expected.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@pam w, but on the positive side much of the snow that does fall looks likely to be in the area where the temperatures are coolest.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
on the positive side much of the snow that does fall looks likely to be in the area where the temperatures are coolest.
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well, yes. We'd not want any significant precipitation with sky high FLs.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
ECM takes it cold from 16 December as does GFS.
GFS op run then goes milder, but a good number of the ensembles keep it cold. |
OK, I am by no means pulling this up to undermine the excellent work done posting all these forecasts. It is just a vain attempt to relieve the doom and gloom of the current setup. My point, as am sure most people know already, is that looking 9-10 days out is probably too far. Early december, I don't recall any forecasts for double digit temps for mid december. So is it fair to say that end of dec temps being forecast now could be out by 5-10 degrees?
I should add that I had to trawl back thru a lot of mild forecasts over the last week, which of course have been accurate.
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So, what happens to rainfall when there is an inversion? Freezing level is around 2300 but at the bottom of Tignes its -8. Does it fall as snow in the valley?
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I wonder if we are shaping up for a winter like 2006/7.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| davidof wrote: |
| I wonder if we are shaping up for a winter like 2006/7. |
Certainly seems familiar to then 
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@langball, that was about nine days in advance. What I was looking for at that stage was to see whether there was a sustained trend towards colder weather starting to develop in the distance which would have indicated a shift in pattern. At that sort of range it is wrong to see anything as a forecast. There will be considerable differences from run to run, between the different ensembles and between the major. So basically a whole lot of noise. At anything at that range should be treated with a great deal of care.
But if over a period of time you start to see similar patterns starting to appear you can have increasing confidence that you might be starting to pick out a signal from the noise. For a while there was a pattern starting to develop that might have indicated a change, but it didn't build. To have confidence increase you need to see it building across runs and across models. If it starts tobuild, confidence increases, if it starts to fade confidence in that outcome decreases.
At present what we are seeing is a fare amount of output that suggests the pattern will stay the same. So confidence in that outcome increases. But it is important to note that confidence in any outcome beyond about seven days is low. So any output that is for the end of December (over ten days away) is with low confidence whatever the outcome, but the more you see that outcome cropping again from run to run the more confidence you can have in that outcome.
Hope that makes some sense.
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