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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
12z ECM not quite so warm warm next weekend, though still very mild. But crazy warm in the Baltics.

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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@davidof, Where in Courcheval is that photo from?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
kitenski wrote:
@SnoodyMcFlude, run down to la tania looks more fun than sitting at home!!

https://www.facebook.com/latania.co.uk/videos/10153714155788617/



That'll do! Family were impressed with the video after hearing there was no snow. I was starting to expect we'd be bussing round to 1850 next week, which isn't that big a problem as I don't forsee the Christmas week being exceptionally busy, and limited areas will still be fun.
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ouch....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015121312&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=333
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I see a lot of short range weather forecasts and gfs etc but not many articles like this which explore and interpret weather patterns on a larger scale.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/north-atlantic-cold-blob-could-affect-gulf-stream-weather-europe-eastern-us/52869594

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-europe-winter-forecast-seasonable-london-paris-storms-france-italy-alps/52871620

I know it all basically boils down to no one can call it and the only really reliable forecast is tomorrow's! But I find the weather science interesting and accuweather pretty much nailed last year and the year before.
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@Jones82, you aren't looking hard enough.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
High pressure over Europe remains persistent deep into this morning's output.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
It was 7 degrees at 2600 metres in Val Thorens yesterday. The pistes are in remarkably good condition and in better state than this time last year with more runs open.

You can see the snow line has moved up the valley. If I knew how to post pictures I took one yesterday that showed the snowline now just below village level at VT, with St Martin and Les Menuires surrounded by fields.


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Mon 14-12-15 8:39; edited 1 time in total
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Small amount of snow forecast for Tignes Tuesday/Wednesday. Does this not show up on any of your charts or is it just a little local snowfall?
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stewart woodward wrote:
Small amount of snow forecast for Tignes Tuesday/Wednesday. Does this not show up on any of your charts or is it just a little local snowfall?
It's forecast locally in VT as well for Tuesday night.
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@stewart woodward, no it does and light snow on Tuesday into Wednesday as well as some on Friday night continues to look likely. It looks heavier further east mind you.

But looking at the general picture suggestions of a shift next week have receded and high pressure appears to maintain it's grip.

This is how the GFS 00z sees snow accumulation over the next week.

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@nozawaonsen, every morning I log on here hoping for some good news from your daily updates. Not a great update for a Monday morning.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
It comes to something when you dial up the latest GFS and are relieved to see the forecast precipitation diminishing. Unrelieved mild high pressure sunshine would be better than frontal rain. Even in Tignes it looks like it will be rain, rathr than snow, in the lower parts of the domain. And more snow in higher areas further east will probably translate into very heavy rain at resort and medium altitudes. Sad
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
not good.........was hoping that the high breakdown would be confirmed!!!!!!!

Still time but early indicators not playing ball
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Snow forecast has turned the GFS into FL over 3000m in the Tarentaise by the weekend. Only a handful of stragglers showing lower temperatures.
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Nearly a fully pisted mountain at Zell am See down to 750m asl. It has been very cold in the village (-5/-6) every night due to this alps wide temperature inversion probably for the last two weeks.

Furthermore, due to the top of the mountain being not too high temps have not affected the upper slopes and it looks like on arrival on boxing day there should be close to a whole mountain to go at.
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kitenski wrote:
@SnoodyMcFlude, run down to la tania looks more fun than sitting at home!!

https://www.facebook.com/latania.co.uk/videos/10153714155788617/


Looks good to me, appreciate that there's plenty of brown and green off to the side, and that the less shaded areas will have cover of thin to none, but from the webcams and that video I'm fairly happy there's enough to keep me entertained for a week Smile
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
pam w wrote:
It comes to something when you dial up the latest GFS and are relieved to see the forecast precipitation diminishing. Unrelieved mild high pressure sunshine would be better than frontal rain.


I'm starting to think the same for next week, for preservation of existing snow as well as that sun will make for a nicer holiday than rain whether skiing or not.


Meanwhile in Scotland:

https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10208517321194259&id=1344803620&set=gm.1106308996055408&source=48



Not my photo, I was at Hillend!
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chrisb wrote:
@davidof, Where in Courcheval is that photo from?


I forget which webcam it came from but it is looking over to la Plagne. It is from October.
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Photo is from top of Croisette gondola station http://www.courchevel.com/winter/en/webcams-lc72.html but only on 360 cam
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Great Scotland photo - where is it exactly??
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I'm guessing the central ridge line us the Mamores
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@mountainaddict, head for Carlisle and keep going, can't miss it.
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BOOM NehNeh
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Piemonster wrote:
I'm guessing the central ridge line us the Mamores


Yes, I reckon so, with Ben Nevis and Carn Mor Dearg the other side of Glen Nevis (moving up the photo), then Aonach Beag/Mor etc continuing away.
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Dr John wrote:
@mountainaddict, head for Carlisle and keep going, can't miss it.
hahaha
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Piemonster wrote:
BOOM NehNeh


Yes
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Pretty much as you were with the 12z GFS.

In the short term light snow tomorrow and into Wednesday at altitude for Tirol and Valais, maybe a few snow flakes elsewhere in the Northern Alps too. A repeat looks likely Friday.



Snow line looks to be around 1800m, a little higher in the west (2000m) a little lower in the east. Should freshen things a little up high, but it'll be damp lower down. Wednesday looks windy too. Might be one to get a space fireside...



Looking further ahead it does look like getting very warm next weekend, but although temperatures stay mild they look like cooling towards just above seasonal averages as we approach Christmas.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
How do these high pressure scenarios usually end? Do they tend to fizzle out over the course of a few weeks, or can it be a more sudden shift? I am assuming that the answer is probably 'it depends', but I welcome any potential straws to clutch at Very Happy
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Hey all,
Im new here! Ive read a lot of posts over the last year or two but never contributed- so now its time Wink Anyway im off to the Milky Way in late January and Morzine early March. Already sweating a bit on snow for January as they have literally none still and none forecast for the next week but I guess I shouldnt worry, still 5 weeks to go. I have a feeling this season could be a bit up and down, some large dumps but warm interludes between. Lets hope that first dump comes sometime before xmas for a lot of you!

Looking forward to following the threads- particularly this one!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@stef88, Welcome to snowHead

You've come to the right place for all things weather related Smile
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
stef88 wrote:
Hey all,
Im new here! Ive read a lot of posts over the last year or two but never contributed- so now its time Wink Anyway im off to the Milky Way in late January and Morzine early March. Already sweating a bit on snow for January as they have literally none still and none forecast for the next week but I guess I shouldnt worry, still 5 weeks to go. I have a feeling this season could be a bit up and down, some large dumps but warm interludes between. Lets hope that first dump comes sometime before xmas for a lot of you!

Looking forward to following the threads- particularly this one!


It's difficult not to start thinking about your trip, but there's not much you can do even if it's crap...plus there's plenty of time for things to change.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Mount Baker, in northwest US, has received almost 500cm of snow already this season, including 100cm over the recent weekend. And it is not even Xmas yet...

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Powder score US 500, Europe 0

Add in Japan, Scotland, Iceland etc. The only straw I can grasp is that there is snow falling somewhere, and with a few shifting patterns, it could come our way again
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Well I for one am very happy for Mount Baker, and not at all jealous. rolling eyes
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Whitegold wrote:
Mount Baker, in northwest US, has received almost 500cm of snow already this season, including 100cm over the recent weekend. And it is not even Xmas yet...



Funny isn't it? If we had 500cm of snow everything would be closed! Are American cms smaller than our European ones?
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
telford_mike wrote:
Funny isn't it? If we had 500cm of snow everything would be closed! Are American cms smaller than our European ones?


American cms are non-existent aren't they? You have to go north of the border to discover people that have moved onto the metric system.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
telford_mike wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Mount Baker, in northwest US, has received almost 500cm of snow already this season, including 100cm over the recent weekend. And it is not even Xmas yet...



Funny isn't it? If we had 500cm of snow everything would be closed! Are American cms smaller than our European ones?


Not 500cm in one go... And in the timeframe they received it not everything would have closed over here.

However Baker probably deserve some snow: they barely got anything other than rain last season, and had to close early!

(image from Feb):

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Like @clarky999, says the set up in the US is quite different to last year. it is much wetter in parts of the west including California, although Utah is licking it's lips at the storm heading their way as it has been rather dry there of late.

http://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf

On the eastern side the position is reversed with records for mild temperatures being reached or exceeded (compared to extreme cold last year).

I put some thoughts on this and the strength of the polar vortex on the bottom of pages 26/27. There's a very good and far more knowledgeable take on it and how it might shift here though.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
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clarky999 wrote:
telford_mike wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Mount Baker, in northwest US, has received almost 500cm of snow already this season, including 100cm over the recent weekend. And it is not even Xmas yet...



Funny isn't it? If we had 500cm of snow everything would be closed! Are American cms smaller than our European ones?


Not 500cm in one go... And in the timeframe they received it not everything would have closed over here.

However Baker probably deserve some snow: they barely got anything other than rain last season, and had to close early!

(image from Feb):




Mount Baker has averaged about 1500cm snowfall per season for the past decade or two.

Even in its worst ever season, last year, it got 300cm of snow -- about the same as somewhere like Kitzbuhel in an average season.
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