Weather Outlook Thread

brian

rob@rar, no, not really ! Laughing

On the one hand, ECM is slightly better according to the published verification stats and (more subjectively) seems to show something more similar to what we've had recently rather than GFS which is showing a pretty big (and unwelcome) pattern shift.

On the other, I think GFS has won the last couple of major bouts of model divergence.

Confused

A snowHead

OK, that doesn't really fill me with much confidence for heading out this weekend. Oh well. Let's hope the GFS will have a change of heart in the next couple of runs. From my very amateurish reading of these things I'm hoping that there will be a bit of snow above 2,000m in the Tarentaise.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

rob@rar,

Metcheck updated this morning seems to have changed to much heavier snow falls early part of next week in Les Arcs.

Would there be any lifts open out there?

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/snow_forecast.asp?resortID=28

brian

rob@rar, sorry mate, I was away out into the middle of next week there. Yes, you're right about the weekend, possibly a flake or 2 on Saturday and a few more arriving Sunday night.

Horror scenarios for next week seem much less likely this morning snowHead

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

Yeah, it's looking like we're going ot miss the most of it. Shouldn't rain much above 1500m. But there's a good bit of something on the way, so if it does rain there could be trouble! If not then happy, happy days.

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USAF latest 5 day snow outlook. Looks good for Sitzerland & Austria

http://ows.public.sembach.af.mil/

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

Can anyone give me any hope that something might happen in Andorra by the 14th? (apart from rain heavily) Sad

After all it is free

wrongsideof30, There's always hope... Smile

14th of April? Bound to be something

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brian,

snowHeads are a friendly bunch.

brian · Last edited by brian on Mon 3-12-07 23:50; edited 1 time in total

rob@rar, will you still be there on Monday wink

You know it makes sense.

brian, are the colour gradients temp or accummulated? I assume the white diagonals are snowfall?

brian · Last edited by brian on Mon 3-12-07 23:50; edited 1 time in total

rob@rar, could be wink

waynos, accumulated precip, here's the corresponding surface (well 2m above surface) temp chart, I think Val d'Isere is just off the bottom, but you get the picture ....

A snowHead

brian

Looking good for major snowfall arriving from the North West tomorrow night. rob@rar, I'm expecting you to be out for a 1st hand report when it starts dumping ! Laughing

It should snow most of Monday and Tuesday right across Northern French alps, Switzerland and Austria. Doubtful if much (for some parts any) will make it to Italy or Southern France.

I would expect snow pretty much all the way above 1500m, maybe sleet/rain at times below that, particularly later on Tuesday. Drier, sunnier, warmer on Wednesday then cooler again later in the week with promising signs of more snow on the far horizon Very Happy

The Azores High seems happy to actually stay over the Azores this year, huzzah !

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

brian, ah, bless you Smile

It's been snowing lightly in Les Arcs for the last hour or so. Currently 1 degree at 1800m with about a 1cm of new snow. Smile

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is the system which has dropped our barometric pressure by 6 mb in the last 6 hours, and already shoved the winds up from 18 to 30 knots and rising, the same one which is going to dump lots of lovely snow over the Alps? I shall enjoy the sound of the rain on our flat roof all morning...

brian

pam w, yep, it's the same beast. Wouldn't fancy crossing the channel today !

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brian, didn't fancy crossing the street. We were right in the teeth of an average wind of 40 knots, off the water, gusting force 10, for two hours. Glad I didn't clean my kitchen window as planned yesterday; it'll be covered in salt again.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

After all it is free

brian,

I can tell you they are expecting a Force 9/10 in the channel and the waves are just mesmerising to watch. I wouldn't want to be on a ship but the main problem with be docking and it is that which causes the delays...

When this hits the alpes, you might have a bad day of so but the conditions when the weather breaks should be awesome..

brian

So a nice looking queue of depressions (not depressing me that's for sure) lined up out in the atlantic. After tonight's heavy snow dies away tomorrow, a mild day on Wednesday with maybe a bit of sunshine then cooling down again with a weak-ish front on Thursday and a couple of beefier affairs to follow over the weekend. Happy days snowHead

btw, Wednesday looks like avalanche central, heavy fall of snow on a strong wind followed by a fairly rapid temperature rise. Skullie

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Hi folks,

Never said hi to everyone on my first post (sorry, very rude), so a big hello to all!!

Anyway here is a question, how does wind chill relate to freezing level etc? I see on snow forecast that wednesdays freezing level is above 3000 meters, yet temp at 2200 is around -1/-6. Does wind chill not affect the freezing level? Surely if its -1/-6 at 2200m the freezing level should be lower than 3000 m.

Trying to learn a bit more about weather, precipitation etc, any pointers or good easy to understand links would be welcome!!

Great forum

Sparkz

snowHeads are a friendly bunch.

snow reports

Here is the current Avalanche ratings for some Austrian states

Tirol

http://www.lawine.at/tirol/index.html?id=1

Voralberg

http://www.vorarlberg.at/lawine/

Salzburg

http://www.lwz-salzburg.org/defaultnew.asp

Steiermark

http://www.lawine-steiermark.at/

sparkzter, welcome to snowHead

The technical stuff about the weather is all above me but it is very interesting reading it especially in this thread. Some very knowledgeable people onboard so I'm sure you'll pick up lots of pointers!! Very Happy

You know it makes sense.

Serious snow and winds in St Anton today Very Happy

brian

sparkzter, welcome to snowHead

s.

No, windchill doesn't have an effect on actual temperatures, just how it feels to people. I'm not sure how snow-forecast derive their temperature forecasts but I suspect it might be due to the fact that on Wednesday a big splodge of warm air is forecast to arrive from the west. What can sometimes happen is that the arriving warm air rides up over the top of existing cold air which ends up (at least temporarily) trapped underneath. The result is a temperature inversion.

A snowHead

brian, your forecast is the same as the local one in Val d'Isere. It was a real storm today - high winds and maybe 30-40cm at resort level. Roads were chaos, not much skiing, but lots of smiles around the resort.

brian

rob@rar, smiles all round. 40cm fresh, 81cm total reported on the Anniviers Orzival automatic station this afternoon. wink

10 sleeps to go !! Very Happy

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

brian

Another major model conflict underway, diverging big style from about Sunday onwards. Once again GFS Sad

ECM

(and UKMO probably Smile

as far as I can see, it only goes out to T+144).

Will ECM win out again ? Looks a bit brrrrr if it does wink

Stay tuned .....

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

Looking at the longer term GFS I hope that it doesn't win Sad

(yes, i know it is a long way out!)

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5 day outlook from USAF looks good

5 day outlook from USAF looks good

brian

stanton, it does look good, but could you shorten your link please ? You're knackering the page width.

After all it is free

Due to cutrrent problems I can't alter this post properly.

brian

Thanks Helen, you got there in the end !

Help!!

Weather Outlook Thread

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