 Poster: A snowHead
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The link below is the first “The Weather Outlook “ winter forecast for the UK , Brian Gaze is an incredibly good amateur/Professional Forecaster that I’ve followed for many years He very rarely gets it wrong , this summer he was particularly spot on . The article has a good round up of the various weather agencies current thoughts and his own conclusion . I know it’s only UK but of course has a bearing on Western Europe as well as Scotland .
His current feel is
Taking the above into account the initial TWO view is that the chance of a relatively mild season is higher than the norm. However, the risk of cold spells in late autumn and the first half of the winter is relatively high. The signal for precipitation is very weak, but on balance above average amounts of rain look more likely in the north than the south.
Here’s the link to the full forecast, as we get closer he will cut the forecast into months .
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather-news/7226/winter-2024-25-weather-forecast
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sun 6-10-24 16:37; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Not great news for early season snowmaking, unless it stays dry and the temperature is the right side of marginal. The higher resorts may do OK if they can hold onto any Autumnal snowfalls.
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@Peter S, The suggestion is the opposite
‘the risk of cold spells in late autumn and the first half of the winter is relatively high’
December has proven to be quite good in the last few years only to be ruined by the Xmas/NY heat wave
As a caveat the forecast is for the UKmit is early and Brian updates again in start of November at some point he will change it to making actual forecasts for Dec.Jan and Feb
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Looking at current ocean temps, Europe is unlikely to see a cold winter.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Looking at current ocean temps, Europe is unlikely to see a cold winter. |
Warm enough for a lot of moist air from the Atlantic. Cold enough that when it dumps that moisture it is snow.
Unlikely but I will remain hopeful as I so every year.
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Predicting the weather 3 months out is just guess work. I’m tipping some cold days, some warmer than usual days, some snow days and some rain to high elevations.
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| sbooker wrote: |
| Predicting the weather 3 months out is just guess work. I’m tipping some cold days, some warmer than usual days, some snow days and some rain to high elevations. |
Some windy days as well 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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What will this hurricane bring for the mountains?
Will it suck down some cold air? Will it dump any moisture to its south?
Or is the answer sweet FA?
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With a rain snow line of 3500m in the Tarentaise tomorrow….
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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At least the reservoirs for snow making will be getting topped up 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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If true the alps would be the battle ground 
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You know it makes sense.
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
@Peter S, The suggestion is the opposite
‘the risk of cold spells in late autumn and the first half of the winter is relatively high’
December has proven to be quite good in the last few years only to be ruined by the Xmas/NY heat wave |
Yes, one of the best recent seasons was 3 years ago (from memory) when we didn't get the December rain, foehn, heat wave so the early snow stuck around into Winter even at low elevations.
It is the whiplash weather that we get now that ruins everything.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Doing what it supposed to do at the moment in the French alps as far as a I can see , glaciers are filling up and snow line gradually falling . Snow down to 2300m and later to 2100m overnight tonight .
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@afterski, seems perfectly reasonable, there appears to be a correlation between higher amounts of lying October snow at high altitudes and how cold (and snowy) the following winter is. This year there is more lying snow in Siberia than normal (though less in northern Canada) which if previous patterns are followed means a colder northern hemisphere winter. It probably doesnt mean much for snow in the alps (which is starting a warm phase, maybe 2 weeks). These things are not forecasts but general indications of weather patterns.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| Doing what it supposed to do at the moment in the French alps as far as a I can see , glaciers are filling up and snow line gradually falling . Snow down to 2300m and later to 2100m overnight tonight . |
Looks pretty dry to me below 3000m in Ste Foy. I would wait till November before hoping for a base to build
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@davidof, yes that was last week it melted as expected . My point was that the Grand Motte is looking in much better nick than the last few Oct . However then next week or two might put paid to that
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TL;DR: France: Poor start to season but abundant snowfall in January but probably above 1500-1800 meters. Priviledge high resorts. Avoid Morzine, it will rain. Or go to Northern Europe.
| Quote: |
Our seasonal forecasts offer you the predominant scenario for November, December and January in France and Europe, for the remainder of autumn and the start of winter. November is likely to be drier overall, following a remarkably wet September and October. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages overall in France.
Seasonal forecasts have given a particularly poor account of this autumn's exceptional rainfall, which has affected France since September. Inter-seasons are very often difficult to predict, particularly because of cyclonic phenomena which, as they move up towards higher latitudes, disrupt the numerical calculations. We are now heading towards a reduction in bad weather in November-December, but the dynamic ocean flow could resume in January.
Over the November-December-January quarter, forecast temperatures in France are likely to remain above seasonal averages (based on the last 30 years), with a difference of around +0.5° to +1°C. Precipitation, meanwhile, is likely to be fairly close to average over the three months, indicating a slowdown in the remarkably wet spells of the last two months.
The climate scenario for the next few months is for rainfall to return to more in line with seasonal normals, with less abundant rainfall from November onwards. A relative deficit could be felt in December. Precipitation will then return in January, with the prospect of a mild, wet oceanic flow for the winter.
November: a seasonal month, with less rainfall
In November, a less dynamic ocean flow could predominate than in October. There will be alternating disturbances and periods of calm. The disturbances are likely to affect the regions near the Channel and around the Mediterranean. The signals are not very strong, ruling out extreme phenomena.
Temperatures are likely to remain around +0.5 to +1°C above their seasonal averages, but at this time of year, low-pressure systems under high pressure can bring cool, foggy days to central and eastern regions in particular.
To remember: a seasonal month, sometimes cool under high pressure, with a high degree of uncertainty over the level of rainfall.
December: fairly calm weather over France
By this time, our model predicts the continuation of conditions known as ‘high-pressure rim’ (the high-pressure system being located more over the Atlantic) with a slight deficit in precipitation for the season (this does not mean that it will not rain, but that the rainfall will be less than the usual average). There could be a shortage of fresh snow in the mountains. The risk of thunderstorms diminishes markedly in the far south. Air masses are likely to remain fairly mild over France, but due to thermal inversion, cold nights are likely with freezing fog. Elsewhere in Europe, there could be a very cold month to the north of Scandinavia, while instability is likely to persist over the countries around the Mediterranean.
To remember: a calm month with a risk of a lack of snow in the mountains.
January 2025: mild and rainy
Our seasonal forecast model predicts the resumption of a vigorous Atlantic flow. If this situation were to be confirmed, the parade of disturbances would bring rainfall in excess of seasonal norms by around +50%, particularly on the eastern flank of the country. Temperatures would be around +1 to +2°C above seasonal averages, so that snow cover in the mountains would be mainly confined to the high mountains (possibly in abundance).
To remember: very unsettled, mild and rainy weather, which would be unfavourable for snow cover at mid-altitude.
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https://actualite.lachainemeteo.com/actualite-meteo/2024-10-11/previsions-saisonnieres-vers-une-diminution-des-precipitations-et-un-hiver-doux-50090
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Thank you davidof, but I like to be optimistic about the coming season (and search all the weather sites for the ones with the forecast I want).
So, paragraph 2 admits they all got it wrong for the Autumn, so no reason to think they will be any better with the winter.
December will be perfick 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Jonpim, wait and see but this is the weather outlook thread.
You've not booked Morzine have you? 
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Cold front moving out of the Aleutian Islands bringing moisture and snow to the Coast Mtns in BC. Whistler and Blackcomb getting a light dusting last night along with the Northern Cascades. Thursday comes a colder air mass out of the Gulf of AK bringing mositure and snow at higher elevations above 6k feet. Will warm up into the weekend and that snow will mostly melt except at the higher peak elevations. Could see up to a foot in Montana (Big Sky), the CO Rockies, Telluride and Wasatch range in Utah. La Nina predicted for North America, so we shall soon see how things play out this winter.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Toadman, lovely
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You know it makes sense.
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Wolf Creek, Colorado, may open next week.
A-Basin or Copper Mountain the weekafter.
Big early storm rolling in, this weekend, 6-30 inches.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Hi folks !
What’s the feeling for mid December in Europe ? High altitude only ? We’ve done St Anton, Zermatt, Ischgl, Murren & Grindelwald, Val Thorens and Val D’Isere. What would the heads recommend ? Black run skiers
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Blewyn, no one knows what the snow conditions will be like in mid Dec those willing to make any predictions are leaning towards a milder than average temperatures start . As mostly only higher ski stations are open then I would suggest your search is limited . This is a thread about the weather outlook and would direct you to ask the question on another thread or start a thread of your own I’m sure many snowheads will reply , probably with the same answer.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Blewyn, yeah, what @Rob Mackley, says. No-one knows.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Am I right to think there is a chance for snow in the North West alps to decent levels on the 25th?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Jamo, possibly. Or maybe not.
@pmercer, 25th of what? October? Not what I can see.
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GFS for 25th/26th October for NW French Alps looks to show big drop in temps with precipitation around the same time. I'm no expert so might be reading it completely wrong. Freezing line not mega low but looks low enough for a lot of resorts.
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@pmercer, not according to Meteobleu for Chamonix.
And anyway, anything falling now will have melted a week later.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Accuweather showing November as quite unsettled in Tignes (no idea how they do that so far ahead  ) but temperatures not particularly cold...
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@mountainaddict, The 14 day forecast I've seen is showing dry and sunny conditions for most of the alps through the first week of November up to high altitudes. The likes of Tignes and Val Thorens will be hoping for colder and snowier weather to develop quite rapidly through November if they're going to open on schedule.
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FAQ
