 Poster: A snowHead
|
It doesn't matter what blocks transmission. Lets say Track and trace will reduce transmission50% of transmission, and the vaccine blocks 75%, then you simply end up feeding 87.5% into the formula rather than 75%.
R0 is a general average. Each person has their own R value. If I dont see anyone at all in my every day life , my R is 0. If I travel on trains every day to commute, then my R could perhaps be 10. One of the problems of targeting the older generations is that their R is probably lower than average so will impact transmission less.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
@ringingmaster, just heard on the radio that there is brand new evidence that a single dose of the Pfizer or Astra is 90% effective. That could be a game changer?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
@Timmycb5, yes, one of the newspaper front pages flashed up in the Andrew Marr show had that headline. But none of the news websites have anything about new data. Were they just rehashing the Scottish report from last Monday? Or the subsequent Cambridge one?
On topic: better news potentially is that German scientists at least have looked at UK data and recommend expanding their vaccination programme by using a UK-style emphasis on the first dose. (Though as ever "scientists" might mean offical advisors, or just some rent-a-quote contacted by a newspaper). Our prospect of travel for skiing next season, and more immediately visiting another country in the summer, would be much enhanced if they can accelerate vaccination in that way.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| Handy Turnip wrote: |
| xtr wrote: |
| It would really be awful to miss two seasons in a row; one has been more than enough. |
If you've only missed one year of skiing then you're in a better position than many. This will be the second year many people won't have been able to ski. |
I suppose that’s true. We were lucky enough to do a trip to Avoriaz in March; the last full week they were open. Pretty sure we got Covid in the process.
When we left Canada there wasn’t even a travel advisory for France. When we got home it was a changed world.
It has been a very long year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| Quote: |
I’ve always wanted to go to Canada. What’s the skiing like at Easter?
|
Banff is probably your best option. I've not personally been there that late, but I'm sure you can find some info.
To go back to Canada discussion talking with my friend's in BC today and they are not at all convinced BC will meet their proposal of getting everyone vaccinated by September. Of course a long way away so we will see what happens.
Regarding herd immunity don't we also need to take into account the millions that have already have covid and most likely already have some kind of immunity? Also I'm not sure herd immunity matters, if those unvaccinated are young healthy people do we need to be overly concerned?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
There is a lot of discussion here which is all about eradicating CV...but it is wrong to think this way.
What is becoming clear from the real.world evidence of millions of people vaccinated is that it almost totally eliminates the risk of either dying or be hospitalised with CV.
That seems to be the case for all ages, even the old.
The vaccine also significantly reduces transmission.
Given these effects it means that there is is almost no chance of the Health Service being overwhelmed, and also it means that if a vaccinated person travels then that person is very, very unlikely to be a health burden on the foreign country.
So even if CV is not eliminated it really doesn't matter...even if thousands and thousands of people have it...because if they are not going to die, not going to hospital, not seriously ill, then really so-what?
People get I'll...if CV becomes just another endemic, but low danger illness then let's all crack on.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sorry for bad typing...doing it on my phone
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Timmycb5 wrote: |
| I’ve always wanted to go to Canada. What’s the skiing like at Easter? |
Which Easter? Seasons are running earlier rather than later these days, although I've ridden good fresh snow late April before now, but it's nothing like the stuff you'll get in January.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| boarder2020 wrote: |
| Quote: |
I’ve always wanted to go to Canada. What’s the skiing like at Easter?
|
To go back to Canada discussion talking with my friend's in BC today and they are not at all convinced BC will meet their proposal of getting everyone vaccinated by September. Of course a long way away so we will see what happens.
|
Difficult to say. It's hard to get a clear picture, though guess it's a pretty complex thing.
Federal government are adamant they will be done by September and Trudeau seems to have staked a lot on that (election coming some time soon) - that was before they approved AZ, and likely Janssen and Novovax soon. EU could of course completely scupper the plan as Canada didn't think it needed to make their own 
Actual delivery is a provincial thing, and things will have to ramp up quite a bit. On a positive note, they do manage to vaccinate a whole lot of people with the flu vaccine every year within the existing system, so with the less complex to handle vaccines, there is hope that they might even be done before September.
We would normally be expecting to ski in Whistler at Easter and well beyond, even in a late Easter year. Who knows what you'll get conditions wise - have had blazing sun, to rain, to (heavy-ish) powder, to full on winter conditions.
Only one mountain would normally close mid-April with the other going until the bike park opens in late May.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@rungsp, +1. I think that's the way the UK is going hopefully with vaccinations and medical treatments bringing its impact down to the same for lots of other infections...Lots of people die every year for lots of different reasons. Coronavirus will just be one more of those, and in fact its victims will mainly be those who die of these other causes as well.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
| snowhound wrote: |
| @rungsp, +1. I think that's the way the UK is going hopefully with vaccinations and medical treatments bringing its impact down to the same for lots of other infections...Lots of people die every year for lots of different reasons. Coronavirus will just be one more of those, and in fact its victims will mainly be those who die of these other causes as well. |
Exactly and it will be just like flu, and maybe with the new treatments that have been developed flu deaths might well be lower in future too.
CV will never be eradicated anymore than flu or the strains of covid that cause colds have been, us oldies will just have an annual jab to control the latest variants
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
It'll be an acceptance. I think the Gov is making that determination at the mo. Some Grannies will need to be put outside the igloo. Bozza has made it clear we aren't locking down again. The next changes are to be 'irreversible'. Eight to ten thousand a year on Covid: acceptable. He's betting the farm on it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| boarder2020 wrote: |
| Quote: |
I’ve always wanted to go to Canada. What’s the skiing like at Easter?
|
Banff is probably your best option. I've not personally been there that late, but I'm sure you can find some info. |
I have been to Banff twice at Easter - usually when Easter is in March rather than April. The snow depends on the year. What I have found is that (at Lake Louise) it can get warm and a little heavy on the front side by 2, 3pm; but I use the time difference to wake up silly early, get the first lift, then ski until the 3.30 bus back in the afternoon.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
| rungsp wrote: |
There is a lot of discussion here which is all about eradicating CV...but it is wrong to think this way.
What is becoming clear from the real.world evidence of millions of people vaccinated is that it almost totally eliminates the risk of either dying or be hospitalised with CV.
That seems to be the case for all ages, even the old.
The vaccine also significantly reduces transmission.
Given these effects it means that there is is almost no chance of the Health Service being overwhelmed, and also it means that if a vaccinated person travels then that person is very, very unlikely to be a health burden on the foreign country.
So even if CV is not eliminated it really doesn't matter...even if thousands and thousands of people have it...because if they are not going to die, not going to hospital, not seriously ill, then really so-what?
People get I'll...if CV becomes just another endemic, but low danger illness then let's all crack on. |
Agree it probably won't be eliminated. And that for the current virus the Health Service probably won't be overwhelmed even if there are many thousands of cases once most of us are vaccinated.
But getting it to a very low level really does matter. The more people that have it, the greater chance of a vaccine-busting variant arising. And that could put the whole world back to December 2019 and starting all over again 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
what about this one? Deja-vu.. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
