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Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
ajpaul wrote:
Does all this mean I'm allowed to start getting excited for La Thuile/La Ros for the first week of March? Shock


Give it a few days yet to be sure, but it's certainly looking promising. Still a bit of a way off, but good synoptic set-up at present, so looking likely.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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so let me get this right. the general concesus is that the temp should drop around end of feb with some of the white stuff arriving the first week of march. please say i have this right. please pretty please
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
benpudney, YES! That's the forecast, and NO-ONE is allowed to retract it Madeye-Smiley Laughing


EDIT: Unless it's to add more snow Madeye-Smiley
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Oh no... the 06z run is out... Sad
























Nah, just f**king with you (TSAM quote). It's onboard the snowball express and, if anything, improves the cold temps early March shown on the 00z run earlier - more agreement AND the precipitation is still about.

Will be interesting watching the models over the next few days... snowHead
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Ok, I will accept no new snow this coming week in exchange for cold and clear conditions...deal? (who do I need to speak to about this?)
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carled, yep looks like a monster dump on 1st/2nd Very Happy

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
norris, looks like a snowy trip from the airport to Serre Chevalier for me then. Tunnel de Frejus here we come.
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Helen Beaumont, yes I have to drive Tignes - Geneva - Tignes to pick up some friends - that should be fun Confused
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Anyone want to swap this week for next week? Wink
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People, people... calm down a bit... this is the GFS, remember? Good at trends (warming usually!) and bad at specifics... even when quite close. This far out all we can safely say is that there is a period of warmth (and clear skies) coming up until early next week, then a VERY gradual cooldown will begin, continuing into March. It's looking like too much agreement on the models at present for the cooling trend to be ignored, but there are still a few memb... wigglies keeping the sun-cream to hand, so it's not certain yet. By this time next week there'll be a lot more agreement on the outcome and I'm pretty sure it'll show average and below average temps for the first week of March at least.

The "mega-dump" showing on 1/2 March is, indeed, eye candy, but is too far off at present to be accepted as fact. What I do like is the weather set-up that is allowing for that predicted precipitation as it looks pretty well established and still allows for a good result even if quite a few factors change. Still a bit warm when that first band of wet hits so will still be a bit damp lower down, but still a promising outlook.
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I keep expecting GFS to about turn and reverse the snow, but as each day dawns it still seems to be there, as carled says give it another week, and then maybe, just maybe we can start to get excited Smile

Also looking potentially good for Scotland around the same time periods....

Just need a nice cool and snowy spell leading up to Easter next so I can have fresh to play in Smile
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
carled, I am trying to contain my excitement, really, honestly................

wink
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Helen Beaumont wrote:
carled, I am trying to contain my excitement, really, honestly................

wink


Actually, if memory serves, you could be due to be burned at the same stake as snowangel with your track record of snow just as/just before you arrive in Serre Chevalier... is it something in the water over there?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
FastEddie,

Are we the only people going out t'alps this weekend?

I am going to have to book a cheeky weekend (again) at this rate!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
carled, Laughing Laughing
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
martski, we're flying out on saturday and then return on the 2nd!!! Just when all that snow is predicted Sad

there's 2 reasons i'm pi55ed of with that forecast (if it happens)

1. we'll be on our last skiing day
2. we need to drive to the airport in lots of snow!
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shoogly, it won't , when do they ever get it right!

(hunkers down in a bomb proof crater smiley)
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
where are you going shoogly?
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kitenski wrote:
where are you going shoogly?


Montgenevre


pp Shoogly
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lol... claviere actually Very Happy

will ski there, montgenevre and serre chevalier

well and truly excited despite the fact it was 4ºC on the mountain today... from reports.
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If you were a snowboarder you'd be alright... we don't mind cruddy snow as the board cuts right through it... NehNeh
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Its ALWAYS snows big the 1st week of March... Smile Its a great week to go away.

On another subject and not to be negative. This season is very average IMO. Upper slope snow depths are not great, especially with the wind we have had. and there have been no significant dumps since the one of the start of December. By significant I mean 60-100cm type dumps.. By the law of averages after a period of 4/5 weeks with only 40cm of new snow its going to snow big sometime soon. Thats for sure.

Europe v's the US / Canada doesn't make goo dreading this season though. Lots of places with 700-900cm of snow in the US this season and most of Europe around the 300cm mark or less. There are the odd exception (Serre C and part sof Austria) but as time goes by the good start cant keep this seasons reputation going for much longer.

Alex
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I love this thread. Everything is crossed now... Off to St Anton on March 2nd.

Thanks for the info everyone, keep it coming!
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montgenevre 1 march and can hardly conceal my excitement, Very Happy
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Please can we have it a bit earlier. Who do I need to speak to about arranging it pre 26th?
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Alex A, Wrong thread for this discussion .. but at 1000m base only one day ( winds) I couldnt ski since December .
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
the mega dump is still there on the 12z - check the purple

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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Was that mean? Purple Rain? NehNeh

Currently, GFS is showing 130mm accumulative precipitation for the 1st week in march.
Normally I do a mm - cm conversion. So currently, best case this is over a meter of snow.
Tomorrow, I guess this will be back to 40mm for the week ... but hey ho.. new snow is new snow.

I am official on level 5 excitement!

tux
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:
By the law of averages

I suspect the law of averages is irrelevant, but whatever, it would be great to have some snow in early March. Lots of snow. snowHead
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Alex A said:
Quote:

Its ALWAYS snows big the 1st week of March... Its a great week to go away.

On another subject and not to be negative. This season is very average IMO.


Aah, but its all in the timing. Having got it waaaay wrong last year (bare ice in Les Arcs in January then swimming in ADH in February), I stand a chance of two perfect weeks this year. First week of Feb in Les Arcs and now a week away from 1st March. My dilemma is that I'm not booked - do I play Russian Roulette with the booking sites or take the plunge at the non-discounted rates now available.... Beats worrying about no snow though Cool
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
sproggski, why not wait till 8 March? The French school hols will have ended, it will be lower season and chances of a last minute bargain therefore better. I wouldn't have thought there's too much hope for a big bargain, in France at any rate, during the peak school holiday period.
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Ho hum, latest GFS has lost the big green bump:(
Still looking like lots of fresh snow all week.

pam w wrote:
sproggski, why not wait till 8 March? The French school hols will have ended, it will be lower season and chances of a last minute bargain therefore better. I wouldn't have thought there's too much hope for a big bargain, in France at any rate, during the peak school holiday period.


I thought the first week in march was zone c and hence the quieter of the school holiday weeks?

Tux
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
yep the mega dump has gone Sad
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I am off to Chamonix on the 29.2.08 and this thread has kept me coming into work early every day. keep it up i desperatley need the motivation as the 29th cant come quick enough Very Happy
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Hi guys, been a lurker here for a number of weeks as it's the only place I can get up to date reports on weather forecast (by the local gurus) for Europe. A bit hard trying to do this from Aus. We will be in Austria (Solden/Ischgl) the first 2 weeks in March and I'm praying that this snow forecast delivers the goods. bug sunshine, get enough here, couldn't care less if it snowed every day!

We normally ski North America this time of year, but a work trip has landed us in Europe, so looking forward to it (skiied Courcheval, Lech, Cortina 20 years ago). Once we're on the ground, happy to provide on the spot reports in the appropriate thread. Smile

Edit: Ooh, see you edit out the naughty words - thought it was quite tame!
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Welcome to snowHeads Bindo! snowHead

And of course we look forward to your reports when you're on the snow Very Happy - hope it's good for you! Although as I'm also in Austria the second week of March there may be a bit of self-interest lurking in there as well Toofy Grin
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Bindo, welcome to snowHead and you're right I really do think this is the best place to find weather banter, weather predictions and weather facts... anyone know anywhere better?
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Bindo, there's an automatic replacement of certain words - it can be quite fun seeing what is substituted Toofy Grin
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Quote:

I thought the first week in march was zone c and hence the quieter of the school holiday weeks?

According to the "school holidays" thread Zone C is Paris.
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pam w, but only one zone is off then, rather than two, so it should be a little quieter surely? I know Paris hols are the busiest weeks, but it should be less busy if the other zones have gone back to school.
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