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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Seems December snow won't be making much of an appearance, I'm not sure but this accuweather seasonally forecast seems pretty accurate every year. The upshot being January February could bring some big dumps..... If it's cold enough.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-europe-winter-forecast-seasonable-london-paris-storms-france-italy-alps/52871620
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
pam w wrote:
Top of Tignes might be spectacular


Not sure torrential rain to 2500 meters on an already thin snow pack will be spectacular even in Tignes. It will look like July in resort.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Not buying your doom-laden predictions at all.

To me, the forecast looks like the absolutely standard temperature rise before a big winter storm (warm front - cold front). This is the case in 90%+ of the winter storms I've witnessed over the years. It may start as rain, but it will be snowing down to sensible altitude pretty swiftly. Don't know about other places, but we have a good base of compact natural & man-made snow down to resort level here and it will happily survive a little rain. Won't do much for the prettiness factor in resort, but such is life.

GFS for me is predicting about 3-4° at 1500m when the precipitation turns up. That's border-line snow/rain at 1500m, definitely snow by 1800m, quality snow by 2000m.
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You're the man stevo
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@stevomcd,

Spot on .

I have no fears about my Xmas / New Year trip and if the snows average there's always the Bar !

On a serious note it's always a slight gamble at this time of year but out of the last ten years I've only had two really dodgy ones .
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Just registered as I've got a ski trip in Val di Fassa on the 2nd of Jan. Desperately scrabbling round the internet looking for good news but not finding much Crying or Very sad

The artificial snow looks great, just hope they can link the sella ronda......

Seems to be some good info here, so I'll keep an eye on this thread!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@stevomcd...........

with you all the way.

indeed Rob.......liking the Black Diamond bar........seems to be popular especially when the have live music apres ski.

and the new nibbles menu looks tempting
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Currently looks to me like the snow line next Wednesday is about 1800m. But I'd still expect the intensity and focus to shift around.

On a more festive note 06z is another run that models some good snowfall in the run up to and at Christmas. If that is still showing up by Monday it might be onto something.
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Swamped with enquiries for our Val Thorens apartment and I imagine that people will start being bussed there from elsewhere, as happened last year. If it doesn't snow between now and Xmas it will be a busy place. Sad
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emwmarine wrote:
Swamped with enquiries for our Val Thorens apartment and I imagine that people will start being bussed there from elsewhere, as happened last year. If it doesn't snow between now and Xmas it will be a busy place. Sad


We took the plunge and booked an apartment in Valfrejus for New Year (flying into Milan). If the snow doesn't appear or the temperatures aren't low enough for making snow it's only a 30 minute drive to Orelle and les 3 vallees express.
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This gives an idea of how this season compares to normal in Switzerland (the figures relate to the specific station so there may well be snow at higher altitudes in those areas where a 0 is recorded, but none lower down).

http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/schneekarten/hsm/gross/index_DE

Parts of Valais actually did well in the snowfall a couple of weeks ago and this is reflected in the current stats, but overall the figures are low or very low for the time of year, though better than Italy right now.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
The Norwegian forecasters yr.no are predicting double digits above 2000m for French Alps next weekend. This will be the third shi*t Xmas in a row. So much for last Xmas being a once in a lifetime event... I blame the fockers in car industry with their cheating software.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
double digits temps.......i d be surprised if its that warm
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I won't be surprised. It was 11 degrees at 2200m last Saturday, and for the time being there is no change in the air. Oh well, I can work on my tan on some nice terrace Smile
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Met office 30 day outlook as far as the 9thJan is bad. Continued rain and gales off the Atlantic affecting the north west of the uk. Drier in the south east. Milder than average, occasional cooler interludes.

Suggests the current pattern is set to stay for the foreseeable future. Hope they're wrong

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast Sad
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Peter S, it doesn't say whether this is due to the current blocking system in Europe though, so it could be just the usual UK crap weather and if the Alps were getting the usual stream through could be pretty good news, snow wise.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

I can work on my tan on some nice terrace

that would be quite nice; just doesn't work in the rain...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Meh, whatever, I'm forced to take the Christmas/New Year period off work so I'm glad I'm going to be spending it in the Alps regardless of whether it snows (much) again before then or not. There will be (at least some) skiing, lots of nice food and lots of nice wine. I can't wait. Beats staying at home every time and no point stressing about the weather. It'll be what it is.
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I was skiing in Switzerland last Monday at 1,800 meters, but by the end of the day I could have been eating grass. It has been hot this week and looks like next week too, but to be honest based on the last few winters here you would be mad to book anything for xmas or even new year.

Even the really local non-touristy places have been stacking up on snow makers after last years Christmas disaster but that only gets you so far!!
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diarmuidlynch wrote:

Even the really local non-touristy places have been stacking up on snow makers after last years Christmas disaster but that only gets you so far!!


Yeah it has to be cold enough to use them!
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http://youtube.com/v/57RiUK5DuqY
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under a new name wrote:
@Peter S, it doesn't say whether this is due to the current blocking system in Europe though, so it could be just the usual UK crap weather and if the Alps were getting the usual stream through could be pretty good news, snow wise.


If only...Just ask California about blocking highs... Although now folks in Cali are pretty stoked these days.
Along with most of Western Canada too.




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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Weather in the Alps is looking bad well into January.

Same rules apply as they have done for the past 25 years -- always book high, with the base above 2000m, for December.
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Well fook me. I must of dreamt the last 8 Xmas ski trips based at 750m.
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Advance apologies if this is a dumb ass question, but the predicted precipitation....if it falls at night will it be snow and not rain? #science
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@duncansarmy, if it's freezing it should be snow, if its just above freezing it may be snow.

Is it just me that's optimistic that going on the current charts, the week before Xmas is going to be snowy!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
jbob, it all depends on whether you are Frazer or Oddball.
I'm with the man with the three Sherman tanks Smile
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
swiftoid wrote:
Meh, whatever, I'm forced to take the Christmas/New Year period off work so I'm glad I'm going to be spending it in the Alps regardless of whether it snows (much) again before then or not. There will be (at least some) skiing, lots of nice food and lots of nice wine. I can't wait. Beats staying at home every time and no point stressing about the weather. It'll be what it is.


OMFG, at last a reasonable voice!!!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Ah yes: the good old Reasonable Voice. Smile

I note there is little discussion going round about A White Christmas.
Usually by now the papers are full of it.
If you look at BBC Weather for London you will see (scroll down to bottom of page) that the usual maximum temperature for December is 7C. Over the next 10 days it is forecast to be 12.4C.

(Of course, not the same for all the country: Blair Atholl)
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@pam w, rain/snow is forecast for mid-week, I'll be in the office then:) glorious at the moment, warm and sunny, but skiing is boring after 3 hours.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
There look like being two bands of snow in the Alps next week. The first midweek on Wednesday (primarily in Austria) the second Friday night into Saturday morning.

Here it is on WRF on Wednesday

0900 http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=S&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=111#model
1500 http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=S&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=117#model
1800 http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=S&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=120#model
2100 http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=S&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=123#model

Neither look to be game changers indeed at lower levels (below 1800m in the eastern Alps and 2000m in the western Alps) it is likely to fall as rain. But Wednesday should bring around 10cm or so in the Eastern Alps at altitude.

06Z Fi continues to suggest continues might improve with bands of snowfall from 22-24 and then again on Boxing Day. It'll be hard to tell if there is any signal from the noise for at least the next two days. But things could be looking up...

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I know there is a band of snow and 0 degree temps on the NYM at the moment. Turning white outside albeit rather wet white.....
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
UK ski industry bookings for Xmas down -14% on last year.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-3357185/French-Alps-ski-resorts-postpone-start-season-lack-snow.html#comments-3357185
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Whitegold wrote:
UK ski industry bookings for Xmas down -14% on last year.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-3357185/French-Alps-ski-resorts-postpone-start-season-lack-snow.html#comments-3357185


And articles like that are partly to blame.
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@Whitegold, this is not particularly surprising considering last year, the last few weeks weather, and recent forecasts. It's unlikely there are going to be many last minute sales for the Christmas week either and New Year may go the same way. I think part of the problem is that prices are just too high for these weeks and there is a reluctance to reduce prices. Still not really any good deals for New Year, some for Christmas week but nothing as cheap as I paid a couple of weeks ago. I do think more people wait and see how things pan out, perhaps buying a flight along with accommodation that can be cancelled.

Do low numbers at Christmas mean even more crowds at New Year or February half-term?
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@duncansarmy, If the number is correct (it may not be) then it just seems to reflect the low value for money and reliability Christmas week can offer. If it wasn't for school holidays it would be 70% less?! This is not to say you can't (some years) have a really excellent Christmas ski break even at 800m.
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http://www.crystalski.co.uk/search/ac.12

Not sure if the above link will work, but for new year week 50% off for a hotel in Les Arcs. I think to add to the worries about the snow and the memories from last year flying out at 0655 on Boxing Day is not the best choice for a lot of familes, and if you dont have children you are less likely to have planned to ski during the school holidays (unless you are a teacher). Must admit cant remember ever seeing such an offer in the past before
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I'd agree the Saturday changeover (Boxing Day) this year is also a problem. Strange there weren't more Sunday changeovers?
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some big inversions around. This is from skipass.com where someone has posted that in Valberg (station in the southern French Alps) they are making snow in the valley and taking it up the mountain in trucks.
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This evening's forecast from Chamonix Meteo - rain to 1900m on Wednesday (but it looks as though that'll be light, mercifully) and continuing mild with very marked inversions - very cold down in the valleys, much warmer up the mountain. 0 isotherm about 2700m on the whole (Meteo France agree).
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