 Poster: A snowHead
|
@nozawaonsen, Cham meteo suggesting 900m in the evening forecast so east-West variance may now be less extreme. Snowfall forecast has increased as well, it was 5-10cm overnight and it’s now 15-25 with another 5-15 tomorrow. What looked like a dusting with rain low down has turned into a reasonable amount of snow.
Hopefully this will make up for the Xmas day disappointment of thick rain crust on deep powder!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
@hd, that was the point of my earlier post referring to https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/january-february-outlook-winter-2020-fa/. The various long term forecasts for this winter pointed to a NAO+ (positive North Atlantic oscillation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation) and the latest forecasts for January and February continue to suggest that outcome. The graph @nozawaonsen, posted showed that in the past few weeks the weather has indeed been mostly influenced by a NAO+.
In practical terms for skiing in the alps this means that the weather is likely to be generally mild but wet. This implies heavy falls of snow at higher elevations but maybe rain in the valleys, exactly what we have seen for the past few weeks. We could still see shorter periods of colder weather but if this pattern continues there should be no shortage of snow for the higher areas but some of the lower resorts might not have a great season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
+1 @snowdave, snow line about 1000m in the west this morning, as modeled consistently - at least all the reports I looked at indicated 1000-1200m.
It’s been the best November- December combo I’ve seen in my 7-8 years of watching for this area (Cham, PdS, GM)
A day or two of rain up to 2000m is normal.....even in January. As long as there is a decent base in place and more snow afterwards then it’s all good.
And how many days of snow have we had to 1200m already? I would guess 15-20......but everywhere is different
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
It seems like the continental high has settled. Might stay around for a long period and give very little percipitation in the Alps in the upcoming weeks. These continental highs often stick around for 3 to 4 weeks in the winter time when they settle. In line with a very positive AO index at the moment. No signs of Polar Vortex disruption at the moment. Most likely a lot of blue sky in the upcoming weeks and very little snow on the horizon..
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
Interesting. I am quite happy with a few weeks of sunshine. Chucking it down at the mo though. Might have to fire up the snowblower.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
From memory these persistent continental highs are quite normal in January, aren’t they? Any idea why or is it just coincidental?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I was under the impression that a strong +NAO brought a cold, dry northerly jet stream to the NW Alps, but December has been a lot of SW with a strong foehn and wet westerlies, like at the moment, where there's a lot of precipitation but the snowline fluctuates between 900m and 1300m.
That said, conditions here in Chatel are very good, as most of the skiing is above that, and will set the season up nicely. I took my son out in the deep new snow today and had to rescue him from a skis off headplant. I struggled to reach him in snow deeper than my legs.
Please correct me about the NAO. I read up on it a while ago and either didn't understand it or forgot.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
@snoozeboy, I think you have it back to front? +NAO tends to have a powerful jet pushing across the Atlantic. Tends to be milder and heavier precipitation. Dry and cold for northern Alps would tend to be associated with -NAO.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@snoozeboy, to quote from the wiki article linked above "A large difference in the pressure at the two stations (a high index year, denoted NAO+) leads to increased westerlies and, consequently, cool summers and mild and wet winters in Central Europe and its Atlantic facade. In contrast, if the index is low (NAO-), westerlies are suppressed, northern European areas suffer cold dry winters and storms track southwards toward the Mediterranean Sea."
The föhn conditions seen recently commonly occur in the autumn, this year has possibly been more intense and later than the norm (no figures to back that up, so possibly subjective). There has been some speculation that the warming climate has meant warmer water in the Mediterranean later in the year which has caused more storms in the Genoa / Adriatic area hence more early snow to the southern alps. As with all these things it is very difficult to see any longer term trends from one or even a few year's weather.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
Anyone who might be flying into LAX, and has a hankering for some deep powder skiing this weekend might want to hit up Mt. Baldy where over 2 feet of snow has fallen.
https://winter.mtbaldyresort.com/
That storm is now off to the East and dumping snow in Taos, NM, Southern Utah and Northern Arizona.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
|
|
|
|
| munich_irish wrote: |
The föhn conditions seen recently commonly occur in the autumn, this year has possibly been more intense and later than the norm (no figures to back that up, so possibly subjective). There has been some speculation that the warming climate has meant warmer water in the Mediterranean later in the year which has caused more storms in the Genoa / Adriatic area hence more early snow to the southern alps. As with all these things it is very difficult to see any longer term trends from one or even a few year's weather. |
I remember reading that theory somewhere: https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=147999&start=1040#3496818
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
@snoozeboy, A NAO + system is often associated with low pressure system around Iceland and a high over the Azores. This brings wet and mild conditions to the UK and Scandinavia and is often associated with a strong jet stream. May or may not give precipitation in the Alps depending on the position of the high. A typical Azores high might give more percipitation to the northern Alps, but if it is positioned more to the east, we might have a long period with dry weather over large parts of the Alps. To me, that looks to be the case now and then you might see a strong positive NAO index and dry conditions over the Alps. But as Nozawaonsen mentioned, this might change. But my guess at the moment is that you will have a sustained period with less than normal percipitaion in the Alps.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
The outlook’s certainly looking better above the clouds!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
Morning all,
Quick question from a weather noob. About to fly out to Saalbach later this morning for a week of sun drenched boarding it seems. With the freezing point above mid station height from Monday, and top station toward the end of the week, what can we expect in terms of snow conditions?
Maybe too simplistic a question?!
Thanks in advance!
https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Saalbach/6day/mid
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Maybe better asked in another thread but with the decent amount of snow that’s fallen ‘this week and sub zero temperatures every night, I think many people would say you’d got pretty much perfect conditions.
There’s a Saalbach thread here...
https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=147786
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 29-12-19 7:49; edited 2 times in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Drammeister wrote: |
Maybe better asked in another thread but with the decent amount of snow that’s fallen ‘this week and sub zero temperatures every night, I think many people would at you’d got pretty much perfect conditions.
There’s a Saalbach thread here...
https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=147786 |
Thanks Drammeister, i'll repost there.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
@strunkenallstar, it’ll definitely be getting warm for the time of year by the end of the week. But the days are still short and the sun sits low in the sky, so that will keep things cooler than they would be later in the season. South facing parts of the circus will soften in the afternoon, re-freezing overnight. North facing runs such as the long runs to the valley beneath Zwölferkogel and Schattberg will have shade for much of the day. Should be very pleasant.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
In a world of powder porn pistes and blue skies are massively underrated
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
Blue skies and regular pistes are easier and more fun to cruise.
Fresh snow with unbashed pistes are challenging thus providing more pleasure for others, myself included.
And then you have the off piste realm, which is a hidden kingdom for the most, one that thrives on fresh snow...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
06z, 12z and 18z GFS op runs all have variations of high pressure over Europe collapsing with colder and snowier weather arriving in the second week of January. All too far out to take seriously, but will be interesting to see if that trend develops over the next few days.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Cold start out east this morning.
Webcam view down to Leogang.
Both ECM and GFS show a switch to much colder weather from Sunday after a warm spell later this week.
Saalbach
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 06z, 12z and 18z GFS op runs all have variations of high pressure over Europe collapsing with colder and snowier weather arriving in the second week of January. All too far out to take seriously, but will be interesting to see if that trend develops over the next few days. |
Thank you, as always for your insight and updates. Your time and knowledge is much appreciated by everyone. As you say it’s some way off and liable to change but gives a little hope to cling onto.
I Remember 2017 in Tirol, one of these blasted blocking highs stayed for weeks dec/jan. that’s fine if you have had plenty of snow before hand as much of the Western alps appear to have but, selfishly I have my eyes on the Eastern alps as I am heading to Achensee mid Jan and there doesn’t appear to have been much snow of late and none coming to mid month. I’ll just have a little pray to the snow gods 
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
@nozawaonsen, Are you in Saalbach? Heading there 8th Jan for sneaky 4 day'er. Been seeing that cooling event slipping in and out for the last week. Fingers crossed........
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
| sussexmartlet wrote: |
I Remember 2017 in Tirol, one of these blasted blocking highs stayed for weeks dec/jan. that’s fine if you have had plenty of snow before hand as much of the Western alps appear to have but, selfishly I have my eyes on the Eastern alps as I am heading to Achensee mid Jan and there doesn’t appear to have been much snow of late and none coming to mid month. I’ll just have a little pray to the snow gods |
I've only just got back to Tirol so haven't been out myself for a while, but by all accounts the last week has been pretty powdery!
This, for example, was the other day just over the other side of the Inn valley from Achensee:
https://www.facebook.com/rohrmoser.roman/videos/978889139173792/
Don't think you need to worry yet!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
| clarky999 wrote: |
| sussexmartlet wrote: |
I Remember 2017 in Tirol, one of these blasted blocking highs stayed for weeks dec/jan. that’s fine if you have had plenty of snow before hand as much of the Western alps appear to have but, selfishly I have my eyes on the Eastern alps as I am heading to Achensee mid Jan and there doesn’t appear to have been much snow of late and none coming to mid month. I’ll just have a little pray to the snow gods |
I've only just got back to Tirol so haven't been out myself for a while, but by all accounts the last week has been pretty powdery!
This, for example, was the other day just over the other side of the Inn valley from Achensee:
https://www.facebook.com/rohrmoser.roman/videos/978889139173792/
Don't think you need to worry yet! |
Sweet lines.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
Good God - Whitegold says something positive.... 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Yes, they are calling it as a Fohn effect.
Thought it was warm in Edinburgh yesterday but thats remarkable for time of year. 16.8 c overnight up North !
One look at the webcams for Scottish resorts shows you what effect its had - unless it gets a lot colder and soon, we are in for a scottish season like the last one (i.e. crap).
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
Warm for the time of the year in the Alps and sunny too.
Up until Sunday...
A 15C switch in temperatures and fresh snow for some (currently looks focussed in the east).
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| franga wrote: |
| From memory these persistent continental highs are quite normal in January, aren’t they? Any idea why or is it just coincidental? |
Likely due to the strat PV strength peaking in January on average. Zonal winds 25km up are forecast to keep strengthening into mid Jan, moving into the 2 standard deviation band. When this is coupled with the troposphere we get positive AO, which keeps the cold air bottled up over the arctic.
The main 2 resulting scenarios for the alps are either strong westerly wet and mild flow like mid Dec, or we get the current outlook with a large Azores / Euro high block.
For the moment only chances are E/NE cold under the UK high, or eventually the strong westerly flow breaks down the block and allows more widespread NW-SE flow.
Not much consensus yet for snow anywhere but the eastern end. GEM and GFS more bullish than ECM and UKMO.
Always time for dramatic change in the 10day range, and end of Jan is guaranteed to be snowy as my mates annual visit never fails.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
@nozawaonsen, it's interesting that that Op run has come up the last few runs but every time with little support. Do you know if the newer high resolution Op model is more accurate than the previous one?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@leggyblonde, at this range the op run will often do this. If it’s consistent then that increases confidence that something is likely round that date, but you can’t take it too seriously until it starts to develop greater support across the ensembles and then cross model. Worth keeping an eye on since it has been cropping up a fair bit.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@nozawaonsen, Thanks, it's not something I had seen so markedly before. I'll be following this one with interest!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
@nozawaonsen, 9th Jan would be better as travelling on 8th!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
