Apologies for my lack of knowledge......but I assume that this could result in a sudden change in the wind direction from West to East and potential weakening of the jet stream? This could in turn lead to very cold weather coming from the east along with the potential for some very good snowfall?
Or have I read that totally wrong?
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Drew Carey wrote:
Apologies for my lack of knowledge......but I assume that this could result in a sudden change in the wind direction from West to East and potential weakening of the jet stream? This could in turn lead to very cold weather coming from the east along with the potential for some very good snowfall?
Or have I read that totally wrong?
OK, I'll put my swimsuit away!
After all it is free
After all it is free
Been reading about the strat profile coming up and it seems that the projected warming over Siberia is not ideal for NW Europe. This looks like a displaced vortex, rather than a split. So if the down welling results in the trop vortex getting shunted over to Canada / Greenland then NW Europe ends up under mild +NAO.
Whatever happens 25km above (10hpa) takes a few days to a few weeks to have any impact on our weather (5km up at 500hpa). The positive read would be that at least the trop vortex will be weakened, and if any further blocking were to build, it will once again lead to warming higher up, and a second attack on the strat, in its now weaker state, would likely split the vortex and push cold air into mid lattitudes.
The split vortex scenario would lead to a longer cold spell than a brief displacement would.
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@nozawaonsen, aha thanks, was that the similiar event that bought big snow to some areas last season?
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Mix of rain, sleet and snow over the next week.
Metro France has a yellow avalanche warning today
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Ischgl.
Plenty of sunny weather about at present and likely to be for next few days.
@kitenski, yes, but it depends on what actually happens and whether as @polo, suggests it simply disrupts the polar vortex or splits it more dramatically. It has a lagging impact (hence why I said early January on a chart for 23 December). Worth keeping an eye on though.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Some subtle upgrades in the near term today, ICON etc have temps now peaking on sunday, with FL dropping during monday snow, from 2000 to 1000m. Pattern repeats 19th/20th.
More models have moved towards the still great looking FV3 run (new GFS / Para), showing the atlantic low getting to the alps 20-24th. Long way out, but it's there now on GFS Op, Control, Para, GEM, and while UKMO has improved, it only goes out to 18th right now.
ECM not quite there, keeping jet stream further north, so alps on milder side, with only 30% of its ensembles supporting above colder route.
So come on ECM, you know how to love me. Surely time for some funk on the thread...
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Snowmagedon on Christmas transfer day then?
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
@luigi, it’s the warm part that is interesting as it suggests a sudden stratospheric warming event.
Wasn't it a similar event that caused the 'Beast' earlier this year?
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Oleski wrote:
Snowmagedon on Christmas transfer day then?
Currently looks like the worst weather will not hit France until Saturday evening.
Sunday will be 1 day of heavy rain, up to 2500m at times.
Some places, like Chamonix town, could see 2-3 weeks of rain in a day.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
LOL - I had to log in to see who that doomsday prediction was from some 2 weeks out
should have guess its was Mr Half Full bordering on empty!!!!!!!!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Haha 2 week out forecast
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Greetings all ye Snow Loving Wise Weather Hounds,
Look I'm back again, late, nothing booked, other half ready to kill me for my lack of commitment &preparedness... But I'm hoping there's methods to my lateness...
So basically all I need to know again this year is :
-Where is the snow?
-Where is there (likely) gonna be snow??
& anything else I should know???
All knowledge, forecasts and insights greatly appreciated,
Horgand
P.s. Outline plan to head to Alps Dec 27-29 for 7 to 10 days. Likely options, Val D'Isere, Argentiere or St Anton,
Less likely Cervinia/Zermatt, Verbier or Obergurgl...
Well it seems this season is shaping up much better than a few years ago (can't remember which year exactly) when many resorts were still green fields around Christmas and there were news stories around about a 'crisis' in the alps showing skiers on sad strips of white.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
The article is as you might expect a bit of a garble. And no it does not directly refer to the chart at the top of this page. The potential cold weather comes from a weakening of the polar vortex rather than a strengthening of it. So the comment about strong winds is a bit misleading, these are in any case up in the stratosphere not at ground level.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@nozawaonsen i clocked the same article yesterday as well thought it might be related to the chart at the top of here. As with most things in the daily fail, to be taken with a pitch of salt!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
I note that today, all La Plagne weather sites (the ones for simpletons like me: meteofrance etc.), the temperature forecast for the coming weekend has fallen rather dramatically, so the rain for Sunday is now snow.
Perfick
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@Jonpim, yep but will depend on altitude and time of day....GFS has the worst case, heavy rain to 1900m early Sunday morning, but the snowline drops steadily all day and into monday. ECM has a max snowline of 1800m, but interestingly WRF (shorter term model) has a max snowline of only 1400-1500m all day Sunday. So either way there will be plenty of snow above 1800m, and lower resorts should see rain turn to snow Sunday evening and continuing monday.
Further out the situation is now more muddled....ECM has actually got worse (mild), and the other models have pulled back a little on the ideal route. Goes to show once again that without the ECM on board any trends are suspect, and the computers have a hard time resolving these set ups (atlantic low trying to break down or undercut euro/scandi high).
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looks like a Retour Est might be shaping up for the weekend - does keep coming and going, fingers crossed.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
The way the Stratospheric Polar Vortex displacement will work, is that it will initially flood the Atlantic with westerly winds, given the +AAM (Niño) base state. But when the AO and eventually NAO domains get higher Geopotential heights, because of the weakening, approximately just before New Year, it will bring cold to the UK and the Alps.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Weathercam, Can't see it myself. Would be nice though
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Leonard Small, thank you for bringing my two favourite things together skiing, and the funk. Maceo Parker and Fred Wesley always guaranteed to bring a smile to my face
By rights I should be a snowboarder what with always being ON THE ONE
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Current snow conditions today...
Andorra = bad.
Germany = bad.
Italy = bad.
Canada = mixed.
Japan = mixed.
Austria = good.
France = good.
Switzerland = good.
USA = good.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Raven wrote:
Well it seems this season is shaping up much better than a few years ago (can't remember which year exactly) when many resorts were still green fields around Christmas and there were news stories around about a 'crisis' in the alps showing skiers on sad strips of white.
l
Two years ago.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Whitegold, Where is your supporting evidence for this ??
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@element, That's fake news!
After all it is free
After all it is free
@esaw1, #flakenews haha
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
polo wrote:
Been reading about the strat profile coming up and it seems that the projected warming over Siberia is not ideal for NW Europe. This looks like a displaced vortex, rather than a split. So if the down welling results in the trop vortex getting shunted over to Canada / Greenland then NW Europe ends up under mild +NAO.
Whatever happens 25km above (10hpa) takes a few days to a few weeks to have any impact on our weather (5km up at 500hpa). The positive read would be that at least the trop vortex will be weakened, and if any further blocking were to build, it will once again lead to warming higher up, and a second attack on the strat, in its now weaker state, would likely split the vortex and push cold air into mid lattitudes.
The split vortex scenario would lead to a longer cold spell than a brief displacement would.
What’s your definition of NW Europe? Does it include only the Northwestern Alps? All of the Alps?
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
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