I have been keeping an eye on Pila/Valfrejus on meteoexploration and the updated forcast this morning has been updated to show 22/18 cm of snow forecast next Tuesday (15th). I am a happier person than I was yesterday.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
yes indeed Joy......thats the next decent snowfall event as far as my limited knowledge could decipher too.
Looks like snow for most the day.
The radar doesn go to far enough ahead yet from the 15th but looks like another band not far behind it.....17th/18th i would guess...........
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Temperatures look closer to seasonal average, but nothing especially cold or snowy on the menu this morning.
@stefoy4me, snow on or around 17 December has been a feature for a while. Less so this morning, but let's see if it comes into focus as we draw closer.
Same with 15 December. Some snow looks likely, but at this stage it doesn't look that substantial. Again this will shape up over next day or two.
Sprinkling of snow forecast today for some places but the Les Saisies webcam shows it raining at 1650m. Might get a few flakes later as it cools down. Best we can hope for afterwards, for some days, is nights cold enough to blow some cannons.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@stewart woodward,
music to my ears
After all it is free
After all it is free
never summer wrote:
@notnats, There were talks that big snow arrives around Boxing Day starting from the first couple weeks of last season, few days before Christmas Day it looked like a certainty.
and in fairness to people who post on this thread, it is a weather outlook discussion not a detailed analysis of the French authorities ability to cope (or not). One of the big factors on snowmaggedon I which Pam mentioned was the autoroutes getting blocked as badly equipped cars and lorries got stuck then stopped snow ploughs getting through.
My take away from Snowmaggedon is that 10-14 days out there are signs of unsettled weather but it is only in the 72 hour run up that you have a good idea of the size and timing of a storm front.
@Pam: you should be seeing a few flakes now as the FL is around 1650 m. It is not going to be more than a cm or 2 though.
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If you wish for it , it won't come , I personally hope its a warm and sunny holiday period , lets hope that works .
The 15th to 17th potential weather event disappeared yesterday on the 00 also only to appear again later on the 06 , lets see if it happens today again .
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
LOL - very true Rob.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
I have a similar dilemma @HeidiAmsterdam. Plan A is to go to Lauterbrunnen on the 17th and ski Wengen, Murren and Grindelwald for 3-days. Might have to change to Plan B, which is Zermatt.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
My glass is looking half empty this morning, it seems that most forecasters have conceded that Europe is unlikely to receive much if any snow before xmas, I hope and pray they are wrong but I can't find a single forecast that shows any real promise for change, the blocking high seems to remain firmly in place and the polar vortex horribly undisturbed. I tend to surf thru forecast and come to a consensus of the likely path forward. Today I can't find many/any straws to clutch which does not bode well. I know there is time for change and at some point the weather paten will break down and change will follow. Last year we had 6-7 weeks of stable and unfavourable weather, in the northern Alps following the early November snow, so far this year we have had 3 weeks since the first storm - I'm concerned that this years weather pattern will also stick for 6-7 weeks and will blow the chance of good snow thru Xmas and into the new year.
At this stage I'm praying to be wrong and will only be delighted if I get blown away with data that contradicts my sentiment.
PS thank you to all that troll the detail of the GFS, ECM, FI etc.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
charliee........depends where you are going i suspect to a large degree.
the 15th - 17th i have a good feeling will give some top up. Meteox shows a fair sustained blob of orange across the day for the western alps.......for hopefully that will translate into something around 20cms!!!!!!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Well i'm off to Morzine christmas week with my girlfriend who's australian and never seen snow before, do i win the hard done by award? Not best pleased but what can you do, still a beautiful part of the world and and beats being in work
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Chill out things change so quickly - This is the eastern austrian alps
Last nights 18Z -
This mornings 0Z -
There's nothing to say this won't revert multiple times between now and then
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@AthersT, you're right, just felt like having a rant
@pam w, oh i do hope so Pam, tbh as we're both new skiers (i board) i'd be happy if we just had one skiable run and a slight dusting in the town! Thanks for your vote of confidence, cheered me up that
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:
a slight dusting in the town
Where are your lessons? Instructors are good at finding you the best snow.
@duncansarmy, I’ll never forget a transfer bus I was on last year – Geneva airport to Chamonix – with me, 2 guys heading out to prepare for the FWT event in Courmayeur, and an Australian guy who had never seen snow before who was heading out to join his mates in Chamonix! We only discovered this when we queried why he was on a bus to Chamonix in winter and wearing shorts and rather flimsy trainers
The guy was a great sport, as well as source of merriment on our way to Cham, and as he was getting dropped off first in Les Houches, we all got to see him jump out of the bus and see and feel real snow for the first time! He was loving it, while also being rather confused by it The driver was happy to let us all hang around for a few minutes with him before setting off again as he was enjoying the craic too The pro skiers found the whole thing utterly hilarious and amazing.
I met the guy a few more times in local bars and he was pretty settled and loving snowboarding (being a surfer at home) – had a great winter.
I hope your girlfriend has just as fun a time, and I'm sure you'll get plenty of snow for her.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@stefoy4me, @nozawaonsen, 06 back on for 15/17th Dec West alps , lets hope it continues to crop up , still messing around 20th onwards .
Once the season is in full swing we will move back to the usual pattern of "Snow on changeover day "
After all it is free
After all it is free
Quote:
we will move back to the usual pattern of "Snow on changeover day "
a sure thing. I drove my daughter and family to GVA on the Sunday after Christmas last year - snowmageddon +1. They'd had horrible conditions at Christmas, of course. That Sunday morning we drove out in bright sun at 0830 with shining corduroy everywhere. They were a bit cheesed off - though they'd enjoyed Christmas with two little girls, despite the poor conditions. The other fairly substantial fall was also on changeover day at the end of January but caused little upheaval on a much less busy day. Drove out (to Arabba) on another day of shining corduroy and excellent off piste too - my son was a bit gutted at that as I was dropping him at Turin airport en route.
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pam w wrote:
Quote:
a slight dusting in the town
Where are your lessons? Instructors are good at finding you the best snow.
@pam w, i hope so Pam, and hope it doesn't involve a short flight lol! We have private lessons first day and then in a mini group with the snow school in morzine, i've heard they are quite reputable?
@fixx, haha great story! In my head (if we get snow) its reminiscent of when my labrador saw snow for the first time, prancing around like it was hot coal trying to eat it as it falls from the sky. Not sure she'll be happy with the comparison though
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Some light snow in Tirol today.
+1°C and raining in St Anton, snow from about halfway up to St Christoph (where it was -1) down to Stuben (-2) and just about still snowing in Langen.
Not very much mind - maybe 2-5cms on the road over the pass. Will freshen up the pistes slightly for the next 24 hours but not much else.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Charliee wrote:
and the polar vortex horribly undisturbed. .
Is it? The polar vortex currently looks its been split up into different chunks with the main part of it currently North of central Russia. I wouldn't view the vortex right now as undisturbed but more the opposite.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
jimmybog wrote:
Charliee wrote:
and the polar vortex horribly undisturbed. .
Is it? The polar vortex currently looks its been split up into different chunks with the main part of it currently North of central Russia. I wouldn't view the vortex right now as undisturbed but more the opposite.
Yeah give the vortex a break charlie
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@duncansarmy, I knew I would get into trouble on that one - I'm no expert at this and should have said - not playing ball!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Charliee, haha, well you certainly had me convinced.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
thats good @robmackley......in Stefoy from saturday 19th to Sunday 27th
fingers crossed
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
HeidiAmsterdam wrote:
rubbing it in @Toadman, ?
If I can get the pics off my iphone of what went down yesterday in Portland, I will post them, but it was quite unnerving to be in the near vicinity of a landslide, and rocks, water rushing over the roads. About 5 minutes after we managed to get by, they closed the road down. It has been very warm and raining up to summit elevations of all the Cascade ski areas, but the weather is set to turn, or hopefully already has to cooler temps, and what now falls in the Cascades will hopefully be as snow. Forecast is for around 50cm-70cm of snow into Sunday. I sadly will not be able to partake of it as I must deliver our beautiful lab/springer mix to my relatives this weekend, so that we can go galavanting off to Europe to ski powder for Christmas!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:
so that we can go galavanting off to Europe to ski powder for Christmas!
which corner of Europe, [b]@Toadman[/b?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
+1 Pam. He's booked in Wengen.
Even if there isn't an abundance of powder, there will be an abundance of beauty.
The pics from Verbier today - Mt. Fort looked very nice - as a plan B. Or Engelberg. He's an American in Europe and is being saved from the Trump propaganda (being generous there), what else could go wrong?
For December strong indications of low pressure over Greenland and strong high pressure over Europe. That's the pattern we're familair with at the moment. And it shows in the precipitation chart as being exceptionally dry over continental Europe and wet over the UK especially the west.
Both of which you would anticipate when we are seeing record high stratospheric wind speeds and record low temperatures above the Arctic. The polar vortex seems to me to be in rude health.
But all that water being carried across the Atlantic wouldn't necessarily miss the Alps or Pyrenees if it weren't for theat high pressure over Europe.
So what about January?
The basic pressure anomalies are still the same. But the pressure over Europe looks slightly weaker and sits lower. And if you look at the prescipitation charts you see much of the Alps - the northern side in particular and the west much wetter than normal!
So that might, just might begin to suggest that the siege is lifted and wetter weather and snow gets through to the Alps. Caution though because it still looks mild which you would expect with Atlantic weather, but that may still be good enough in the mountains.
And February? Well there is some suggestion of northern blocking.
If you got that you'd open the possibility of colder weather flowing down south.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
So that might, just might begin to suggest that the siege is lifted and wetter weather and snow gets through to the Alps. Caution though because it still looks mild which you would expect with Atlantic weather, but that may still be good enough in the mountains.
.
Thing is, the winter's snow depths are built in the late autumn. So February snow implies a short winter. I had this chat a few days ago with my mate from the Met:-
Me: Offered a job from January, not that interesting but if there is only a bit of snow maybe I'm better off working for a few months?
MetMan: Winter will be warm, there will be days with snow but a lot of the time things will be marginal. If you are working you may not be able to hit the good days when they come, but there won't be that many this winter.
Me: So take the job?
MetMan: Remember the BBQ summer
Me:
After all it is free
After all it is free
davidof wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
So that might, just might begin to suggest that the siege is lifted and wetter weather and snow gets through to the Alps. Caution though because it still looks mild which you would expect with Atlantic weather, but that may still be good enough in the mountains.
.
Thing is, the winter's snow depths are built in the late autumn. So February snow implies a short winter. I had this chat a few days ago with my mate from the Met:-
Me: Offered a job from January, not that interesting but if there is only a bit of snow maybe I'm better off working for a few months?
MetMan: Winter will be warm, there will be days with snow but a lot of the time things will be marginal. If you are working you may not be able to hit the good days when they come, but there won't be that many this winter.
Me: So take the job?
MetMan: Remember the BBQ summer
Me:
I used to fly in the Air Force- met briefings were each day, for that day. Statistically, they got it right about 40% of the time. Moral? If you ignore the forecast, you might get what you want!
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@Charliegolf, Roger that!
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@nozawaonsen, all new to me, but a fascinating look into the world of forecasting and patterns, thanks for all the informative posts, loved the audi vid too.....wonder how much of that was real
so, what I've got so far, it's going stay above avg temps, jan looks wet, feb might be cooler....alps could see good snow in jan/feb, but FL will be key to euphoria / disaster, and then it will be spring
Side anecdote, I meet this old french dude while walking dog in the forest every week, we only talk about mushrooms or weather, today I complained it was too mild, he wasn't remotely bothered, "non, il va venir"
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
Have you arranged lessons for her?
The driver was happy to let us all hang around for a few minutes with him before setting off again as he was enjoying the craic too 
