Weather Outlook Thread

A snowHead

was just looking at metcheck earlier... looks like it's going to be mild for a spell over the next few days, starting tomorrow. Booooo.

brian

Some musings for Mosha Marc and me.

ECM has been fairly consistently throwing up scenarios like this in the middle of next week: notice the cool easterly-ish flow across the alps and the petit perturbation sitting around Mt Blanc. I don't want to go overboard on this as it's still essentially a high pressure scenario but it has a wee chance if you happened to sit under a nice slow moving shower of giving us a few inches of nice freshness wink

GFS has not offered any support for this until today when it has popped up on one or 2 ensemble members, eg.

A long shot, but not entirely without hope.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

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i still dont get why the green line is not following the other runs on the gfs? the other runs show to be under the red average for the next week, but the green is over it.... why?

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brian, I will live in hope.

A couple of inches shouldn't be sniffed at!

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brian

Mosha Marc, ECM 12z has (proper) snow in it no doubt at the back end of the week. Things are moving our way wink

Agenterre, sunny and clear for the next few days right across the alps. Hard frosts overnight, freezing levels peaking at 2000m-ish, wee bit lower in Austria as you say ... but April ? Have a word with yourself, this is plain vanilla average February weather.

After all it is free

Very hard frost overnight here. Damp air, ice on the windscreen. Our last day on the slopes this side of the school holidays so I went out on my snowboard; not a great choice with some quite hard and lumpy pistes about but we stuck to very easy runs and I survived; the day after my 61st birthday Crying or Very sad

Just as well, as I have to drive to Calais tomorrow! Exceptionally pleasant weather today, clear sunny sky. Mont Blanc absolutely resplendent. There's plenty of snow about, and a good start to the holidays. Most folks will be happy with good snow and sunshine; it's only a minority of skiers who really want loads of snow falling and powder everywhere!

brian

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brian, thanks. I admit to being partial to a spot of sunshine myself, but have been having more success in the powder recently than I have before. On skis. Only the occasional nose-dive. Will keep trying when we get back in early March. I hope you're right about the snow out there in the distance. snowHead

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Brian, Would like to add some substance to next week's 2 inches. In the old days when Uk had winters it always (ok sometimes) snowed on my birthday which just happens to be the 14th. So........... let's see!

snow reports

Nothing much to say about the weather for a good long time, if I'm brutally honest. A period of warm "meh" until mid-next week, followed by slightly cooler "meh" for about two weeks after that interspersed by periods of slightly warmer "meh" again.. if things progress as predicted. The odd dusting of snow at higher levels here and there, bit of frost at night, largely clear skies by day.

Magnolia coloured vanilla weather.

Its a long way out but that high looks like breaking down around the weekend of the 23rd? I hope so as arrive in Tignes for 10 days then NehNeh

You know it makes sense.

Mmmmm.

So do I pack the Carvers or the Big Mountain planks? Confused

brian

carled, look a bit harder, this has snow written all over it (albeit it's in FI):

A snowHead

Mosha Marc, fatties i reckon wink

brian

Mosha Marc, if you're just doing the standard Sun-Fri 6 day thing then I'm afraid it looks like carvers mate. Sad

Unless you can get well off the beaten track. If you'll still be there the following weekend then it might well be worth having something a little wider to hand. wink

ECM is fairly consistently going for snow sometime around the 16th-18th, GFS is sticking mainly with dry (operational has been bone dry) although there are one or 2 ensemble members hinting at the ECM solution (orange line please, Bob Razz

):

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

THis thread amuses me. Only last week, there was mumping and groaning about people trying to predict more than a few days in advance for snow, yet here we are only a few days later talking about snow falling two weeks away! Very Happy

So, brian, is montgenevre going to have fresh snow for the week beginning the 24th feb ? Very Happy

brian

shoogly, fecked if I know wink

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he he

brian

NB. THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION, merely a reflection on what the model output is showing.

GFS 06z moves substantially into line with ECM but doesn't quite get there, the precip is around Sardinia, a few hundred miles to the south of where it needs to be. Encouraging sign though, next weekend is definitely showing signs of promise. Of course I don't need to tell you all that it's very far off and only an interesting situation which might develop ... at this stage !

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

Brian/Carled, I am off the St Anton on the 16th, from my very basic survery of the models it is not looking to good in terms of any new snow before or during the holiday, do you have any hope to offer me?

After all it is free

pmercer, ST Anton has a huge base already( up to 270 cm at the top) Very Happy

, looking at the weather models it looks as if we're going to have a pretty chilly week during half term, preserving all that snow well and allowing the resort to make new snow, to build up their base even more! I think your gonna have some superb skiing with a week of sunshine and chilly temperatures, hope you have a good time, Very Happy

hmm, from what I understand, the GFS forecast above (out to 26th Feb) is showing burger all snow, and temps rising....

Fingers crossed the high breaks down....

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yer the gfs runs have changed quite alot in the last 24 hours, showing warm temps for next week now......... Sad

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kitenski, i've got everything that's possible to cross, crossed!

please please please let it snow rolling eyes

snow reports

I am off to La Plagne on Friday. Carvers or fatties?? Any further insight from the gods (Brian/Carled)

Can't give you any hope for much snow. Maybe a tiny dribble of something around the end of the weekend, but nothing significant. Getting a bit cooler next week then a chance of some snow at medium to high levels from mid-week onwards. Not huge amounts of model agreement around on it, but the chance is there. Too early to say at present, sorry.

You know it makes sense.

Thanks for the info, i'll keep watching the thread with interest. Fingers crossed.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Thanks for the update carled, not sounding overly positive (but that's not exactly your fault!).

Hey at least there a good base this year, beats last years rock fest. So hopefully my nice new snowboard won't get too many rock shaped chunks chopped out of it! Smile

Keep thinking snowy thoughts people!

A snowHead

All resorts seem to be blasting the canons all night due to the good base depths so all will be fine

A snowHead

no new news here, but the alps do look glorious under all that clear sky... i wish i was in space now looking down...

[img]http://www.sat24.com/images.php?country=eu&sat=&1202830080358[/img]

actually, cancel that, i wish i was skiing Very Happy

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

feeling the pressure here, bloody high pressure - I'm writing to my MEP how dare a high pressure sit over the EU and block off all the chances of any fresh pow. I'm sure plenty of people love settled sunny weather - but not me - brings out the crowds and I need powder - at least it's not raining.

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As there is so little weather to talk about how about a little lesson from the weather peeps.

We're currently stuck with a high pressure over European alps. How difficult is it to predict when the HP will move on? Does a HP actually "move on" or does it disperse, get gobbled up by another air mass or something. What triggers the HP to "move on"? A shift in the jet stream, vigorous low pressure knocking it out the way, the end of my ski season? How long could it hang around?

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Plenty of snow ... as long as temps stay low ( not in my prediction) then all will be welll..

My advice is stay at home ... you wont enjoy .... Little Angel

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Agenterre, eh? have you been on the ale? Puzzled

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

red 27, No more than usual on a Tuesday .... why?

I'll speak slowly ..

a) There is a 'reasonable' snow depth here ( Gstaad). Snow is 'hard' up to 2000m ....
b) I believe temps will rise over next 5 days. Not good ... as snow depths/condition would then deteriorate fast
c) Stay at home ... so I can selfishly enjoy what there is ... while it exists

wink

After all it is free

This is from metcheck

"Another cloudless day across much of the British Isles today. Quite a rare thing in fact at this time of year. Usually, when high pressure pushes in, so moisture at the base is cooled and condenses bringing what we know as Anticyclonic Gloom.

This week however, it's been a little different as the source of the air mass has been dry with a very strong inversion. If you want to check out the inversion, try looking at the temperatures at ski resorts in the Alps. It gets warmer the higher you get!"

How come we don't ever get this high pressure and blue skis sitting over us just after a big snow fall. Scotland would be so much better for skiing if it did. Puzzled

Weather is crazy.... i like it Very Happy

Agenterre, apologies - must have been me on the ale... the original post makes perfect sense in the cold light of day Sad

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Brian, Carled... whoever else knows about this stuff...

I was just looking at the forecast Jet Stream for next week on metcheck

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/jetstream.asp

On monday 18th it looks like there's a big chunk of higher wind speeds heading towards europe... is this what we need to bring more systems in to the alps, and more precipitation Puzzled

Help!!

Weather Outlook Thread

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