Hmmm. Despite this morning's 00z and 06z GFS and 00z ECM going for cold mid month this evening's output is a lot less convinced. That could mean trouble...
"Hello trouble. It's been a while since we last met."
What has developed over the last four months (or to be honest in the last month in particular) has been a strong signal for northern blocking, the sort of pattern which could lead to a -AO and -NAO and colder weather being pushed down from the Arctic.
One element worth noting if you switch to the monthly view is that there is a tendency towards that blocking being rear loaded towards January and February.
Clearly now we are in October what will be key will be whether this pattern builds or at least remains consistent.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen, Wetter.de is currently predicting some very low temperatures for my neck of the woods by next weekend and looking to stay that way as well. The seems to be some considerable precipitation mixed into that as well, so who knows where it may go.
Samerberg Sue, I have my suspicions that wetter.de simply repackages the GFS op run for it's 14/15 daily output. Either way there has been a fairly frequent signal for colder and snowy weather next weekend over a number of runs. 18z and 06z GFS are on board, 00z GFS wasn't whereas 00z ECM supported cooler conditions.
So a definite lean towards colder weather mid month if not complete confidence. Of course the likelihood is that most of any snow will disappear as temperatures return to average, but it may give a first real flavour of winter.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen, I'm just happy I'm getting my tyres switched over just in time. I had not seen the run as I order them and made the appointment, now I'm feeling a wee bit smug as everyone starts to panic here!
I take their forecasts with a good pinch of salt, but when matched against a variety of sources including some from the former meteorologists on the Wendelstein (the manned station is now closed sadly), I'd say I get a good overall idea of when and where things are going to be about 2 or maybe 3 weeks in advance around here!
I'm addicted to your long-term sources though and have followed this thread assiduously since it began (and in its former incarnations as well). Please keep up the outstanding work for those of us who find these these so interesting!
If you look at the ensembles on the previous page you can see the 12zGFS has really deepened the signal for a cold and snowy period in the Alps from around mid month with snow falling to 1500m in places.
This evenings's 12zECM is however less keen.
So with mixed messages there is still some way before any confidence in the outlook can be given.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Some snow falling through parts of the Alps today possibly down to 2100m in the east, higher in the west. High winds. Similar though possibly slightly heavier on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Continues to look likely that there will also be cooler weather and snowfall next weekend as well. Possibly not as low as some recent runs have been suggesting, but +/-1800m looks possible in the east. The detail will of course sharpen during the week.
"During the night of Monday, 8 October, widespread precipitation is anticipated. The snowfall level will initially be at 3000 m, then on Tuesday will drop down to 2400 to 2700 m. On the northern flank of the Alps the precipitation will be especially heavy until Tuesday midday. Following a quiet interim during the night of Tuesday, 9 October, precipitation will on Wednesday again intensify in the central and eastern sectors of the northern flank of the Alps in particular and continue until the morning of Thursday, 11 October. The snowfall level will drop down to 2100 to 2400 m on Wednesday. The northwesterly wind will be blowing at moderate to strong velocity on Tuesday and is expected to transport the new fallen snow... On Thursday it is expected to be sunny widespread.
Between Monday evening and Thursday morning above approximately 3000 m, the following amounts of snowfall are expected: northern flank of the Alps, 30 to 50 cm, in the eastern sectors as much as 70 cm; Valais not including southern Upper Valais, in northern and central Grisons and in Lower Engadine, 20 to 30 cm; elsewhere less. At 2500 m, 10 to 20 cm of fresh fallen snow is anticipated in the major areas of precipitation.
Above approximately 3000 m the snow will be deposited by and large on top of a cohesive, area wide old snowpack, particularly on north facing slopes and atop glaciers."
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Continues to look good for snow this weekend mainly in the Eastern Alps. Possibly with a further band on Monday/Tuesday.
GFS then has high pressure and milder more settled weather developing across the Alps from around 18/19 October.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Noz,
as ever, I am glued to this thread and will continue to read daily (or more often) but just wondering if you had a preference for a particular 'commercial' forecasting site. I appreciate they all use the same set or subset of underlying data (most of which is way above my mental pay grade if I am honest), but I assume there are going to be nuances to how they interpret this data and apply it to localised forecasts.
So knowing as much as you do, if you had to pick a site that was the nearest to your view or interpretation which would it be. As an aside does anyone know if there as an accuracy rating for actual against forecast conditions?
BTW I tend to use snow-forecast.com
Thanks again for the updates.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
ansta1, of the commercial forecasts for the Alps I like the design and layout of Bergfex it also manages to capture a feel for some of the spread of options beyond six days.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Matt Hugo has put out a few comments on the latest ECM seasonal outlook.
"Latest ECMWF seasonal update is out & for D/J/F the overall pattern would lead to more of a +NAO pattern & little risk of a colder scenario. High pressure is in abundance, but there's a -ve anom near Greenland, whilst pressure is higher to the W & SW. Conflicting signals as usual."
Obviously I wouldn't place too much emphasis on this or any LRF. And in any case for the Alps cold may be less important than snowy. Comparison with CFS is interesting.
- November looks like a +NAO with low pressure over Greenland.
- December has no signal for blocking over Greenland, but does seem to hint at high pressure near Scandinavia.
- January and February both see -NAO with high pressure over Greenland.
In general that looks to me like more of a chance of a +NAO at the start of winter with a -NAO in the second half.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
This evening's 18z GFS suggesting a relatively weak band of snow and rain crossing the Alps on Saturday, with more substantial snowfall on Sunday and Monday.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
And this morning's GFS has further split this into a band of snow pushing across the Alps on Friday over night into Saturday as temperatures drop and a second band pushing across later on Sunday into Monday.
Possibly further snow emerging at the end of next week too around 19 October, but obviously a long way off at this stage and I wouldn't take it very seriously.
Niño 3.4 SST index stays neutral, slips slightly at +3.4.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Met Office long-range probability maps updated for October. Still going for a colder than average winter for central/western areas of Europe:
Matt Hugo has put out a few comments on the latest ECM seasonal outlook.
"Latest ECMWF seasonal update is out & for D/J/F the overall pattern would lead to more of a +NAO pattern & little risk of a colder scenario. High pressure is in abundance, but there's a -ve anom near Greenland, whilst pressure is higher to the W & SW. Conflicting signals as usual."
Obviously I wouldn't place too much emphasis on this or any LRF. And in any case for the Alps cold may be less important than snowy. Comparison with CFS is interesting.
CFSv2 forecast monthly z700 anomalies
- November looks like a +NAO with low pressure over Greenland.
- December has no signal for blocking over Greenland, but does seem to hint at high pressure near Scandinavia.
- January and February both see -NAO with high pressure over Greenland.
In general that looks to me like more of a chance of a +NAO at the start of winter with a -NAO in the second half.
whats an NAO please
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
The NAO is shorthand for the North Atlantic Oscillation which can be considered the regional (North Atlantic) manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or Northern Annular Mode (NAM). The NAO can be defined as the surface gradient in atmospheric pressure between Iceland and the Azores/Portugal, ie between the approximate centres of the quasi-stationary Icelandic Low and Azores High. The AO or NAM is similarly defined as the atmospheric pressure gradient between the Arctic and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Basically if one of these index's is positive (+NAO for instance in shorthand), it means that there is a stronger than average pressure gradient and the westerly circulation is stronger (stronger winds from the west bringing wet mild conditions from the Atlantic into NW Europe), and vice-versa for a negative index.
NE1, as FreeBeer says it's an acronym for North Atlantic Oscillation. If you scroll back to page 4 of this thread this is what I wrote on this earlier in September.
"... the NAO is the North Atlantic Oscillation. In general you have a high pressure system near the Azores and a low pressure system near Iceland. However, their strength and position varies and this can have a big impact on the weather in Europe (and indeed on the other side of the Atlantic) not least because it can influence the position of the jet stream.* The NAO index is derived from measuring the relative pressure over Iceland and Gibralter.
A +NAO typically sees warm and wet westerly winds push across the Atlantic into northern Europe. This means the weather in Northern Europe is often stormy and milder than usual. In southern Europe the strength of the Azores high means less wet weather and cooler than usual temperatures. This can translate in the Alps into more precipitation on the northern side of the Alps. This was very much in evidence in December 2011 and January 2012 when a series of storms brought large amounts of snow to the northern Alps, but it often did not reach the southern Alps.
A -NAO allows cooler weather to push down into northern Europe although often this can be drier. Conversely with the jet stream pushing south wetter and warmer weather tends to effect southern Europe. In the Alps this can mean more snow in the southern Alps. December 2010 (and 2009) was notable for a very - NAO and brought very cold weather to much of northern Europe.
That said as a predictive tool it is very broad brush as the exact weather patterns on the day will define the weather rather than the general trend.
The correlation between El Niño and weather in Europe is as far as I am aware fairly limited or at least difficult to correlate.
*That said the strength and position of the jet stream can also have an impact on the strength and position of pressure systems."
And on page 5 earlier in October:
"Incidentally if you are interested in the role of the Stratosphere on winter weather and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) then this is a good blog piece by Matt Hugo.
His focus is the UK, but it obviously holds true for elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. As before it's important to note that for the Alps if it's snow you want it may not be extreme cold you need."
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
These maps are drawn from GFS operational output so come with the usual caveats that would imply, but they do give a sort of feel for the general trends over the next week or so.
You can see a general NW/SE temperature divide over Europe with it colder than average over the next week to the NW. The northern Alps in general are on the cooler side of the divide. Precipitation is stronger to the central and eastern side of the Alps.
Three bands of snow at altitude (rain lower down) one on Friday 12 one on Sunday 14 /Monday 15 one on Thursday 18 /Friday 19.
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen, oooh they're fun noza - keep those coming thru the season please
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
The weather round here, much like the late Sir Jimmy Savile in his 70s heyday, is frequently dipping into the teens - and sometimes going as low as 7 or 8.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
I am only interested in Val Thorens. I imagine from now on anything falling above 2700 metres will stick around. Looks like a good start to the season so far.
Looks like the first big dump down to 2000 Metres will be 5th or 6th November.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
NOAA update on ENSO.
"Borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions are expected to continue into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, possibly strengthening during the next few months."
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Light snow moving across the Alps later this afternoon and overnight focussed on the eastern Alps. Down to 2000m+.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Interesting 12z GFS which sends some heavy rain and snow across the Alps on 19 October. Check out the Zermatt ensembles. ECM isn't picking this up yet, but worth keeping an eye on. Meanwhile looks like snow falling over the Alps Sunday night into Monday possibly down to 1500m. So October moving along nicely at higher altitudes at present.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Some of the heaviest snow at the start of next week looks like being at the far east of Switzerland and west of Austria so Davos and the Arlberg could get a decent covering down to around 1500m briefly.
Being mid October it won't last, but it should top up some of the glaciers as it passes through.
Looking further out the likelihood of something at the end of next week/next weekend seems to have faded this morning, but maybe something to keep a lookout for.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
NOAA have released some research on links between conditions in the Arctic and it's potential impact on weather further afield.
Taking a look at the updated CFS forecast monthly anomalies there seems to be a fairly strong signal for a +NAO (possibly stormy) in November and possibly December though there is also a suggestion of high pressure building over Scandinavia (possibly cold). January looks to me closer to a +NAO (certainly more so than it looked at the start of the week). February possibly seeing high pressure once again over Scandinavia.
So certainly not a strong signal for blocking to the NW at this stage. But in the absence of an especially strong signal I'd probably say that it looks uncertain rather than black and white.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
This evening's output from both GFS and ECM is suggesting high pressure will build over Europe in just over a week
allowing much milder and more settled weather to develop.
Before that there looks like being quite a bit of snowfall 20-40cm on Monday into Tuesday possibly briefly down to 1200m in places.
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 14-10-12 14:17; edited 1 time in total
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
A good autumnal set up at present. Fairly substantial snow tomorrow now looking like it could even graze 1000m in places. Should be some great wintery scenes Tuesday and early Wednesday.
But as is often the case this time of year it won't last with a switch back to more normal October temperatures and quite possibly a shift towards quite a bit milder and more settled conditions with high pressure building over Europe at least for a while.
Looking at tomorrow's snowfall you can see it pushing through the eastern Alps nicely on WRF. There will be some snow in the western Alps, but the main focus looks like being further east, in particular the Austrian Alps.
The possible disturbance around 19/20 October is still cropping up, but now further south, pushing across the South of France. It could bring some very wet weather to the western end of the Alps, but with a snow line around 2700m. After that the signs from 06z are increasingly suggesting at least a period of blocked weather with high pressure across Europe and milder temperatures.
"The fresh fallen snow from the most recent period of precipitation between 8 October and 11 October still blankets the high alpine regions in general and the north facing slopes above approximately 2600 m."
"During the night on Sunday, 14 October, precipitation is expected to set in which in southeastern regions will be heavy. Over the course of the day on Monday the snowfall level will drop from 2000 m down to 1000 to 1300 m. By the morning of Tuesday, 16 October, the following amounts of new snow are expected above approximately 2500 m: Main Alpine Ridge from the Gotthard region to Ofen Pass and southwards thereof, as well as central Grisons, 50 to 80 cm; northern Alpine Ridge from the Urner Alps into Liechtenstein, northern Grisons and the Lower Engadine north of the Inn River, 30 to 50 cm; Valais and remaining northern flank of the Alps, 10 to 20 cm. At 2000 m, about half these amounts of snowfall are expected. On Sunday night the wind will be blowing at strong velocity from the southwest, then shift to northeasterly on Monday. It will subsequently slacken off to light to moderate strength. On Tuesday, it is expected to be rather sunny during the day."
Some good snowfall in prospect in the Alps today. And could be some great wintery scenes depending when the cloud clears.
But beware it is a bit of an October tease. Later in the week high pressure looks like building over Europe bringing milder and more settled weather.
At present it looks like high pressure will become the dominant factor through much of the remainder of October, though some suggestions it could shift at the end of the month.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Will be gone in a flash but some will be sticking at higher altitudes.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Should be some good views of the Alps tomorrow. Then a milder period as high pressure builds. Nothing unusual about that, though of course how long it settles in for can have an impact. At present though at the far end of the runs there are some suggestions that the end of the month (around 28/29 October) could see a shift to cooler weather.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Colder than average across Europe, much of the US (less so in the east), and Hokkaido.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Flew into Geneva yesterday after a few weeks away - had a great view over the Alps as we came in to land. Previously there was only really snow on Mont Blanc, yesterday there was loads right across the Alps! Stunning views, and rather exciting Quite a bit visible from lake level today as well, naughty teaser for the winter! Didn't get any photos unfortunately as I only had my phone camera, and it was already switched off
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Poster: A snowHead
