 Poster: A snowHead
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And as if by magic it disappeared. That's FI for you, but certainly a feature worth keeping an eye on.
Here's some thoughts on analogies for weak El Niños and Canada. Based on some of the current output I'm not even sure it will make it to full El Niño.
Typical weak El Niño impacts for winter
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Thu 27-09-12 23:50; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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awesome. my offical start of winter is when i start reading this thread
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Getting washed away in the North East for the third time this year. A wet year in the UK
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Niño 3.4 SST index on BOM has now dropped to just +0.5 so the EL Niño really struggling and this stage and looking like sliding back to neutral.
Meanwhile out west...
Real Snow
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Thu 27-09-12 23:51; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Woke up to snow on the hills again this morning. There's a sprinkling down to what looks like about 1000m rather amazingly - just a few freckles of it, and on the highest peak visible from my house (La Tournette) there's a ton.
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| Mr Piehole wrote: |
| Woke up to snow on the hills again this morning. There's a sprinkling down to what looks like about 1000m rather amazingly - just a few freckles of it, and on the highest peak visible from my house (La Tournette) there's a ton. |
Should be working east across Alps during today bringing light snow at altitude as it goes.
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All well and good having the ensembles on the first page, but what about the fifth page?
Here are some ensembles.
Les Deux Alpes.
Chamonix.
The Arlberg.
Hintertux.
Bad Gastein.
Sestriere.
Folgaria.
Zermatt.
Cairngorm.
Hemsedal.
Eastern Pyrenees.
Still got some stormy weather to get out of the way across the Pyrenees and over the Alps as we get to the end of the month. After that temperatures generally looking average to above average heading into October. Some ensembles have been toying with idea of something cooler in the Alps around 05 October in recent runs, but without much support. Bit cooler in Scotland over the next few days so possibly some light snow up high.
Here's an ensemble of girls in a jeep going skiing (from Life magazine).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Here's a short piece from the Met Office on potential relationships between ENSO (El Niño in this instance) and weather in Europe. Suggesting a link between El Niño conditions and cooler weather in the second half of winter.
El Niño gives colder European winters
That said from week to week it looks less likely that this winter will see El Niño conditions, with neutral conditions looking more likely at this stage.
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ESTOFEX shows up that stormy weather well.
"A level 1 was issued for parts of NE Spain, S-France, NW and W Italy, Corsica and Sardinia mainly for heavy to locally excessive rainfall amounts, strong to severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and an isolated tornado event."
That heavy rain will probably leave 5-15cm of snow at around 3000m in much of the Alps.
A bit of a switch in the outlook in the last 24 hours, that fracture around the 05 October is looking more like a fissure with a much stronger single now for below rather than above average temperatures at the end of the first week of October. But still a real range of options being suggested so a lot of uncertainty.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen, I don't know how to do it, but have a look at the GSF runs over the uk for December 15th. Batten down the hatches ! 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Ricklovesthepowder, not completely sure what you mean as GFS doesn't stretch out beyond 15 October? You may I suspect have come across the CFS daily 9 month run. This is a slightly wacky model which to be honest is really just a bit of a laugh. It's simply not possibly to predict with any sort of accuracy at all at that type of range. But it has been flinging out some rather fun charts recently.
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This morning's GFS runs have swung back towards a warmer end to the first week and start to the second week of October. This sort of inconsistency flags up uncertainty and this is underlined by the spread from around 05 October. The majority of ensembles going for something milder, but a good few keeping the colder option alive.
That cold possibility gets a further boost from the Euros (UKMO and ECM) who also look colder. Here's ECM with some cold coming in from the east.
Maybe it will be clearer by this evening.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Ah yes the CFS daily run. Meteociel adds a specific warning to this one:
"ATTENTION : Ce ne sont pas des données à prendre au pied de la lettre pour un jour donné. A n'utiliser que pour établir de vagues tendances : indices de blocages, haute/basse pressions etc..."
This morning the same model has that period dominated by calm, settled weather.
CFS 00z 29 Sept +1860 (!)
My post above illustrates how much uncertainty you can have in five days time let alone 75. The way I would interpret those two CFS snapshots of mid December, one extremely unsettled, one settled, would be to say that there is considerable uncertainty about the weather in mid December. Which I could probably have said without looking at the CFS daily output. But you're right if there was such a deep low pressure hitting the UK then yes it would be very stormy.
Taking a quick glance at the CFS monthly it continues to suggest northern blocking is looking more likely in the second half of winter or at least January and February (which conversely does make stormy weather more likely in the first half of winter).
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Sun 30-09-12 14:23; edited 1 time in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I do note that they never re-visit the stories at the time of the anticipated climactic weather event!!
I remember reading in the summer of extreme heat waves etc on the way, only to be met (as we all remember) of a rather damp squid.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Seconded keep up the good work nozawaonsen, enjoyed last years thread and can't wait for the snow to start falling in Europe.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Thanks! Good to know you enjoy it!
This evening's output hasn't done a whole lot to clear up what happens from 05 October, but seems to be edging away from anything especially cold for the Alps. Beyond 10 October is another matter and the last few GFS runs have been suggesting the middle part of the month could see something a bit colder. However, given that it's ten days out I would simply say it's something to keep an eye on rather than to make any assumptions about.
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Some thoughts on September in Austria from ZAMG.
September: Letzte Hitze, erster Schnee
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/september-letzte-hitze-erster-schnee
- From summer to winter in 48 hours.
- 11 September still had summer heat, 32.3C in Zwerndorf.
- By 13 September the mountains and valleys had already felt winter.
- Cold air pushed in on 12 and 13 September.
- At 1100m above sea level at Bad Gastein there was a 3cm deep snow pack, 10cm at the Hahnenkamm.
- The last time this happened in September in Bad Gastein was 2002.
- Overall though the month was 0.9C warmer than average in Austria.
- the last third of the month was unusually warm, the warmest since 2003.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Seems fair enough to me. They are being pretty up front and honest about it as far as I can see. Either they could say it definitely looks like being like this. Which would be untrue, but more definite. Or say it looks uncertain, which is more honest, but less definite.
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NOAA's latest ENSO update:
"The CFS.v2 ensemble mean predicts ENSO-neutral conditions in Northern Hemisphere winter after a short period of marginal El Niño conditions."
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Looks from the ensembles above like some snow overnight for the Cairngorms before warming up quite a bit as we approach the weekend.
In the Alps temperatures look average to above average with high pressure in charge. Possibly a slight dip now around 07 October. Against this generally fairly mild background mid month remains the best chance for a shift to cooler temperatures at the moment, but not with anything even close to any confidence.
Incidentally if you are interested in the role of the Stratosphere on winter weather and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) then this is a good blog piece by Matt Hugo.
Stratospheric Conditions & Winter Weather – Analysis & Information
His focus is the UK, but it obviously holds true for elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. As before it's important to note that for the Alps if it's snow you want it may not be extreme cold you need.
Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Wed 3-10-12 23:05; edited 2 times in total
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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We all know that last year in the Alps there was little snow before the beginning of December and then there was lots. Is there any historical data about that indicates the statistical average date when the snow cover becomes permanent (for the winter); say down to 2000m. Since webcams have been about I think its into November and probably mid-November. Obviously its different for different areas each year.
I can see SHs getting nervous but it would be unusual I think for a permanent snow line to be other than very high (3000m plus) at the start of October. There have been hints of the coming winter but I suspect the first big storm is statistically some time away
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To be honest I would be a little surprised if anyone is worrying about lack of snow on 02 October. Chances are we will get one or two snowfalls in October to relatively low levels which will then melt away. Between the second half of November and first week of December is when you might normally expect to see the snow line dropping down and the snow pack starting to build.
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You know it makes sense.
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It's like Christmas, you wonder how many presents you'll get, you start to see the presents under the tree, you don't know what they are and you can't open them until Christmas anyway, but you still have a peek and dream.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Looking at the ensembles above you can see a clear suggestion in both the GFS operational run and the control run for colder weather to push across the Alps around mid month in ten days time.
Obviously that's still too far out. But perhaps worth keeping an eye on the middle part of the month.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Has anyone noticed that medium term weather forecasts read more like horoscopes as time goes by - you can usually read what you want into them!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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NYT on El Niño:
Experts See Signs of El Niño, but a Weak One
"... after seeing signals for months that a moderate Niño might be arriving right about now, the more likely case appears to be an episode that is weak indeed: probably short, and hardly nasty or brutish."
"“This may be El Niño manqué, a borderline El Niño — a wannabe El Niño.”"
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Looking at GFS this morning mid month still looks interesting. Most of the runs yesterday supported a shift to cooler temperatures from around 13/14 October. The operational run this morning is more of an outlier and is less keen on colder temperatures though most of the pack still support them, indeed have moved more towards them. There may be a clearer signal by this evening, not least as ECM comes into play.
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GFS 06z and the 12z run both went for cold weather for three or four days mid month with snowfall across the Alps before warming back to October average later in the run. Still plenty of time for that to change of course.
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This evening's ECM also going for a cool down on 14 October in the Alps.
04 October 12z ECM +240
Good to see some cross model agreement developing.
Should be cold in Scotland too.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Eastern Alps look like seeing snow on Sunday 07 October and Tuesday 09 October falling to around 2500m+.
It gets more interesting from mid month according to this morning's GFS with temperatures dropping a good 10C and snow falling down to the valleys. In this morning's output the timing of cold air and rain means the snow line would be quite a bit lower in the east than west. That said at this range it's more the trend than the detail that is the point. And the trend has been pointing to colder weather mid month for a few days. Still too far for real confidence. But increasing. ECM may add to this in the next few minutes.
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Good work nozawaonsen, if you can bring in some snow mid oct, some of that will likely stick above 2500m.
Keep it up.
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FAQ
I'm certainly looking forward to the roller coaster ride. 
