 Poster: A snowHead
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Very appealing 18z run.
Cold and snow in the Alps on the 01/02 December, then again from late on the 03 for the next few days.
Scotland would also see plenty of cold, snow and strong winds.
Looking back at the last month here is ZAMG's review for November in Austria.
Wetterrückblick November 2011
- Driest November on record (since 1858). Nationwide only 2% of average rainfall fell.
- In the mountains up to 5C warmer than average and 2.5 times sunnier.
Interesting piece on Wasatch Weather Weenies discussing the Utah snowpack.
Why Thin Snow Is Weak Snow
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Thin Snow is Weak Snow - much like the conditions throughout much of the Alps last winter. Decent early snowfall giving a reasonable, but thin, snowpack, followed up by lots of clear, cold weather. Bad!
Quite common early in the season though, before the snowpack really gets established. Don't think you can't get avalanched because "there's not much snow."
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Oh bloody hell, no sooner do I get my hopes up about new snow, than my nerves start to jangle about avalanches.
Perhaps I should take up knitting instead of skiing. 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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moffatross, Oooh getting pinker too 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Now i am totally loving what I'm seeing here and on meteoblue.com for Chamonix 14 day forecast, but that Norwegian site has just gone pants.
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Can anybody confirm what snow depth is likely for 25mm of precipitation.
yr.no only shows depth of this in mm and desperately looking at Courchevel for 10 Dec.
THANKS
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geoffk, The roughest calculation is to x10 so 25mm = 25cm
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Meteoblue 14 day sounds like it may be based on GFS operational run? And so indeed is the chart above. So expect them both to shift around a lot (the 00z version of the chart above is slightly less snowy).
Overall it looks like some snow coming in at the end if this week, but maybe not a huge amount.
25mm of rainfall would very roughly produce 25cm of snow. Very roughly. Depending.
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Wow
Thanks for quick reply.
All I need now is to see better numbers before putting money to the tour operator.
If not will be looking to 10 Jan instead.
Thanks again
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Just keep in mind that you cannot predict the amount that will fall with any real accuracy. There are too many factors at play. Based on recent output I'd say a range of somewhere between 10 and 30cm for the French Alps next Thursday/Friday at the moment. It might become clearer as we get closer.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I,ll take 15 cms please on the 2nd ! 
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What you do in the privacy of your etc.
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You know it makes sense.
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GFS 06z was strong.
Here's the 06z version of the chart above.
And are some meteograms:
The Arlberg.
Alpe D'Huez.
Chamonix.
You can see clearly the first band coming through late on the 01 into the 02 December then again on the 04 December. The rest of the run sees further snowfall pushing down across the Alps from the north west.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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nozawaonsen,
Disagree totally first flakes clearly fall at one minute past midnight 2nd dec.
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Poster: A snowHead
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12z GFS basically holds to the same pattern, taking it noticeably cold (and snowy) around 06/07 December. Scotland looks set for another battering next weekend.
It wasn't quite as snowy as the 06z run and clearly the amount of snow is still unclear, but it should be enough to make the mountains look white at least.
One thing that is noticeable in recent runs is that with the weather arriving from the north west those places in the southern Alps that prospered at the start of November look less likely to really profit from the coming snowfall (for now).
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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ECM would produce more happy days for Alpine skiers too ...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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ECM certainly ended pretty cold.
La Chaine Meteo incidentally flagging the threat of an outbreak cold weather from mid December.
Décembre : menace de froid en deuxième quinzaine
Not too sure where they get the idea that the Met Office was suggesting a cold December (possibly a confusion with some of the tabloid reporting or possibly something else). We'll see.
I got a question about Long Term Models. As I've mentioned a number of times I wouldn't take them that seriously. Almost all of them carry fairly clear, up front, honest health warnings about their accuracy and experimental nature. Obviously they are looking at climate rather than weather. Nevertheless if you are interested here are some links to the CFS model to compare what was being suggested over summer/autumn for winter to compare with what happens over the coming season.
CFS
CFS archive
[CFS issues updates daily. Because of the range they can change dramatically on a daily basis. In some ways it might be easier if they were updated on a monthly composite basis. The Z500 anomalies notably gave a good indication of likely strong locking over Greenland last November and December]
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Sun 27-11-11 23:20; edited 1 time in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| La Chaine Meteo incidentally flagging the threat of an outbreak cold weather from mid December. |
Hope it's not quite as cold as the same time last year. Don't think my toes would be happy with another case of frostbite.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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18z Aka "pub run" is out. Let's hope it's pissed as it goes a bit against recent trends, I do so hope so.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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00z back on track!
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This morning's 00z GFS continues with broadly the same patter of the last few days (and ECM looks broadly similar).
- Next few days continues dry and mild.
- End of the week cold and snow (though slipped back to 02/03 December).
- Second band of snow (04-06 December).
- Band of cold weather and snow continuing for rest of run.
Worth noting the 18z trip up and the fact that the operational doesn't get much support from the rest of the ensemble at times during the run. Let's see.
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"Quel hiver aurons nous cette année ?
En Suisse romande, aucune tendance bien claire ne se dessine pour l'hiver 2011 2012. Quoiqu'il en soit, un hiver doux semble un peu moins vraissemblable qu'un hiver normal ou froid." [Meteo Suisse]
Make of that what you will.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, Ils n'ont idee pas, comme tu sais bien
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
"Quel hiver aurons nous cette année ?
En Suisse romande, aucune tendance bien claire ne se dessine pour l'hiver 2011 2012. Quoiqu'il en soit, un hiver doux semble un peu moins vraissemblable qu'un hiver normal ou froid." [Meteo Suisse]
Make of that what you will. |
With my pigeon French it seems that they have about as much idea as I do.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Whitters, yes, no clear signal. Though slightly less likely to be milder than average. Broadly what a number of models have been suggesting. But obviously that doesn't preclude it being warm. In fairness they are pretty up front about the inability to make that sort of forecast. Part of the reason the Met Office decided it wasn't worth publishing a long term forecast.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Well a slightly better chance of a normal or colder winter than of a very mild winter is better than nothing. Good enough for now.
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Just from a purely selfish 'will I be able to drive to work' point of view, is the snow forecast this week and next likely to get down to about 300-400m in the Lake Geneva region?
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You know it makes sense.
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06 wriggles is out and looking good still for snow from 2nd onwards and that green bottom line keeps getting taller, ECM and GFS maps agreeing too
On another note does anyone know how to attach things on a iPad 2 !!!! I,m sure noza the man will be along shortly to attach relevant grapes, it's looking good , let's hope it doesn't miss or rain, after all this waiting it would be kinda of funny NOT
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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might be time to stock up on de-icer in the uk!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Interesting shift in the last day or so with the potential for a Genoa low to develop at the end of the week. This would favour the Southern Alps into Eastern Switzerland and Austria rather than the Northern Alps.
Whitters, I'd be surprised if it was quite that cold at the end of this week. There is the potential it could get quite a bit colder in the middle and second half of the week after, but that's too far out to have a great deal of confidence in at this stage.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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nozawaonsen, thanks.....my wellies will stay in the cellar for a few more days then
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen, From my (very limited) understanding of this type of stuff - for Arlberg I've understood that it may be starting to snow at the weekend and throughout next week, I'm going for 3 nights on 9th Dec, and I know its far from an exact science but looking like a good bet we'll have some decent snow? I'd appreciate your thoughts. Cheers
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Interesting shift in the last day or so with the potential for a Genoa low to develop at the end of the week. This would favour the Southern Alps into Eastern Switzerland and Austria rather than the Northern Alps.
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Perfect...bring on snow in Piemonte!!
More specifically...Viola saint Gree and the surrounding 'resorts'!!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Sorry for probably asking the obvious. Looked in the search function and there's reams on the weather.
What are the different runs you are referring too? E.g 00z GFs, ECMWF 12z, GFS 18Z. Why are they different?
Where also do you find the 06 wriggles?
Thanks for explaining.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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GFS 06z was strong.
Here's the 06z version of the chart above.
And are some meteograms:
The Arlberg.
Alpe D'Huez.
Chamonix.
You can see clearly the first band coming through late on the 01 into the 02 December then again on the 04 December. The rest of the run sees further snowfall pushing down across the Alps from the north west.
Got it!!!,,!!!, see above 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I like the sound of a genoa low particularly if it goes off on a 5b-cyclone path. To be honest I don't really know what that means fully but apparently it can result in lots of snow in parts of strudelskilander so that's good enough, see more here http://www.zamg.ac.at/eumetrain/ShortCases/Snow_Alps/index.htm
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phillip33,
I don't think you have. 
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FAQ
