larry1950, yes that's a useful resource. I think it would be fair to say that the actual role of solar activity on the earth's climate is still rather unclear and there are several quite ambitious claims about it's influence. There were a couple of interesting pieces in New Scientist on this last year "What's wrong with the sun?" and "The sun joins the climate club."
On a separate subject here is a piece by Joseph D'Alemo on ENSO, "so best bet is a weakening La Nina likely becoming a neutral ENSO at least briefly before cooling returns by the fall/winter." [ENSO Update ]
I thought I would also copy this over from the 10/11 thread just to avoid any confusion.
- Personally I would take LRFs with a pinch of salt. The further out the more salt I would take. I'm curious to see what they say though, even the very long range experimental ones. Doesn't mean I'd take them seriously though [remember also that in general with models like NOAA CPC these are looking at climate rather than weather and many of them are quite clearly labelled research or experimental models, so no none of them are trying to predict the weather next April].
- If over several months, they start to show some consistency my curiosity will be peaked.
- If other models start to share that consensus over time I think that is interesting. That doesn't mean I'd take them that seriously and inevitably I would expect the detail to be relatively broad and vague.
- Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.
- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.
- Don't take it that seriously.
Anyway here is a piece from this morning by Brian Glaze from TWO.
"A rough guide to forecast accuracy
Posted Fri, 22 Apr 2011 05:49:45
I’m quite often asked about the accuracy of weather forecasts, and whether they should be relied on. My stock answer is that rather than giving out percentages, I suggest looking at a number of different weather forecasts for the same location over a period of several days, and then look for consistency between them. If they’re inconsistent then obviously they can’t all be right! If the forecast updates (the 16 day ones on our site are updated every 6 hours every day inc holidays and weekends) are changing substantially, then again confidence is low. The final point to bear in mind is that as the time to the forecast date decreases, you should generally see forecast consistency between different web sites, and successive updates increasing. Sometimes the forecasts are very consistent, and a good example of that is for this Saturday. Day after day, run after run, the computer model data we use on TheWeatherOutlook has indicated that temperatures in southern regions this Saturday will be around the 25C to 26C range. The temp profile (link below) from the overnight run yet again shows something similar. When this level of consistency is present it usually means the forecast is likely to be correct!"
• All models indicate that La Niña will continue to weaken in the coming months.
• A majority of models and all three multi-model forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions
by May-June-July 2011 (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5C and +0.5C ), continuing
through the rest of 2011.
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Mon 4-07-11 23:11; edited 2 times in total
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
A rough summary of some general analysis from ZAMG (the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics) on the 2010/11 season in Austria [the original is linked, though it is in German].
There was above average sunshine across the whole of Austria throughout winter and in some areas this was the seventh sunniest winter in the last 100 years.
In the west of Austria (including the Arlberg and Tirol) the mean was +0.8C above average. Not especially high, certainly not set against the mean for the last 20 years and particularly not in comparison to 06/07 which was +3.7C above average. Of course this was not evenly distributed and the very cold temperatures in December and late January were offset by warmer temperatures at other times. And clearly that is winter and does not include spring.
In terms of precipitation it was clearly very dry with 63% of average rainfall in western Austria and 73% in the interalpine region (which includes much of Salzburg, Styria and Carinthia). What is of noteworthy is that for the west this continues a trend of declining precipitation over the last 20 years, but in the inneralpine bucks a trend for increasing precipitation over the last 20 years [Innsbruck incidentally had 24 days from 27 January until 19 February with no precipitation, although earlier in January Mondsee saw 88.7mm fall in a day (13/1/11) which was a new January record for the town].
December saw some very heavy snowfall in parts of Austria, especially near Vienna. Overall though snowfall was only 25-75% of average from the Arlberg to Vienna. Paznaun (Ischgl) and the Upper Inn Valley only receeved 20 to 30% of the average. Obviously December was very cold in a lot of places, Obertauern had the coldest monthly average for an inhabited area at -7.7C against the average for the month
Looking at spring, March was the sunniest in Austria since 1953, with 40% more sun than on average. Only 25% to 75% of average precipitation across the country. St Anton had 20% of its normal March precipitation and Langen in the Arlberg had only 8cm of new snow compared to a March average of 155cm.
April was the third warmest in Austria since 1800, the second sunniest in Vorarlberg and Tirol since sunshine records began in 1906. And Vorarlberg and Tirol had only 20-30% of average rainfall.
Snow depths in The Northern French Alps the lowest ever observed and despite more snowfall in the Southern French Alps the warmth in April has lead to levels being 40 to 60% lower than normal.
Exceptional temperatures for April in Chamonix (1042m), 26.4C on 09 April 2011 a record for April since records started in 1951.
Similarly at Bourg St Maurice (868m), 28.6C on 09 April 2011 the warmest since 1946.
In the US the NOAA (or rather its regional forecast centers) provides graphs showing information from SNOpack TELemetry stations (SNOTELs) which assess the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in the snowpack, so the equivalent amount of water that a particular amount of snow contains.
Which gives an idea of how much extra snow has been falling in parts of the US this year, though not all. You can have a look around some of the Colorado Basin stations here. http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmap.php?scon=checked
Anyway, this next bit is just for fun. It is NOT a predication or a forecast for next season. It is just an end of the month peer at what the CFS model has been showing since it started showing early winter probabilities in mid April. So to reiterate it is just one model, I would expect it to change, it is just a rough look, and I would take it with a large pinch of salt. Especially six months out!
Pre season (October, November, December).
Scotland- Clearly tending towards warmer than average and a slight tendency to drier than average.
Western Alps - Tending towards normal temperatures (just a few went colder) and normal precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Tending towards normal temperatures (just a few went colder) and normal precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - tending towards normal temperatures (just a few went colder) and drier than normal.
Early Winter (November, December, January)
Scotland - Strong tendency towards warmer than normal and tending towards normal precipitation.
Western Alps - Swinging between colder and normal temperatures, slight tendency towards drier than normal.
Eastern Alps - Slight tendency to colder than normal (otherwise normal), tending towards drier than normal.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Swinging between colder than normal and normal, tending towards drier than normal [the trend over a number of recent runs has been to noticeably strengthen the probability of drier than normal for Southern French Alps/North East Italy]
Largely for my own curiosity I'll keep an eye on how it evolves, whether it develops any consistency, whether any other models join it in a consensus and then whether any of it resembles anything like what happens come winter!
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Wed 6-07-11 7:58; edited 1 time in total
And following on from "Sécheresse sur la France" here is a piece (in German) from ZAMG, Trockenheit in Österreich
- Inner Alpine Valleys from Mur (Styria) to Paznaun (Tirol) have had between 30 and 50% of average snowfall so far this year. St. Jakob im Defereggental, in Eastern Tirol was the driest town in Austria with just 28% of average precipitation.
- The cause of the dry weather was frequent blocking highs over Central Europe with rain bringing low pressure systems either too far north or south.
- In some parts of Austria the current dry period has lasted since September 2010, the last stretch of similarly dry conditions was in 1975.
i got my sking in early this season and that went quite well.. next season im leaving it till later on,.. no other reason than i like to avoid the crowds and everyone will be going at half term in 2012 at the expense of easter
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nozawaonsen,
if this gentleman is right,and La nina comes back does this mean another dry winter for the alps
Firstly I'd have to say I'm not convinced by what he's saying...
Secondly at present the likelihood is that "ENSO neutral conditions are expected to develop during May-June 2011 and continue through the Northern hemisphere summer 2011" (NOAA 09 May 2011). That doesn't mean we won't see a return to La Nina conditions by winter, but it is a possibility rather than a probability.
Finally, I've not seen much to suggest an especially strong correlation between the winter weather in Europe and the Alps and La Nina or El Niño conditions in the Pacific.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
As a rough illustration of the lack of a clear correlation here is an unscientific sample of some of the previous La Nina winters:
2007 to 2008 strongish La Nina, mild across much of UK, not much snow, though a good winter in the Alps with early snow especially in Austria.
1998 to 1999 strongish La Nina, mild across much of UK, not much snow, though very heavy snowfall across Europe (and several bad avalanches)
1995 to 1996 medium La Nina, fair amount of snow in UK, very late snow in Alps.
1988 to 1989 strongish La Nina, poor snowfall in UK, awful snowfall in Alps.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Wed 6-07-11 8:01; edited 1 time in total
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Some observations of trends in the CFS forecasts over the last month...
Pre season (October, November, December).
Scotland- Strong trend towards warmer than average. No clear trend for precipitation.
Western Alps - Tending towards average temperatures (just a few went colder) and average precipitation, although not especially marked.
Eastern Alps - Tending towards average temperatures (just a few went colder) and average precipitation (dry being the stronger trend after that)
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - tending towards average temperatures (just a few went colder) and drier than average, although not especially marked.
Early Winter (November, December, January).
Scotland - Strong tendency towards warmer than average and towards average precipitation (wetter being the stronger trend after that).
Western Alps - Swinging between colder and average temperatures, trending towards average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Trending towards colder than average (ahead of average), tending towards drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average (average being the stronger trend after that), drier than average (average being the stronger trend after that)
Winter (December, January, February). [Based on initial output].
Scotland - Warmer than average and average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average temperature. Average or drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, tending towards drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average temperatures, drier than average.
Apart from in Scotland (and indeed much of the UK) there is little so far in the CFS model to suggest a warmer than average winter or run up to winter. Similarly there is little really to suggest a wetter than average winter so far (obviously that does not mean there might not be warm or wet periods, even in some of the recent very dry months there have been days of exceptional rainfall and in any case it is looking at the overall probability). The CFS model differs slightly from the JAMSTEC model in that the latter sees it colder across the whole of Europe for winter including the UK (and they still differ on where the ENSO will be by next winter).
Of course that said this is really just out of curiosity and there is little to really suggest long range models have much of a success record. So I wouldn't take this that seriously and I would expect it to change. It's just for fun... and I wouldn't bet on it
NOAA/CPC keep to their position "ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to develop during May-June 2011 and continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011." [16 May] (although less keen to look further forward than they were earlier in the year).
And JAMSTEC stick to their guns too, but in contrast still flag up the likelihood of a return to La Nina conditions by winter.
Either way let's hope it's a Ski Party (thanks to Powder magazine)
Obviously still too early to get a real sense of how significant an eruption this will be. There are some suggestions that high latitude eruptions can lead to high latitude blocking, negative NAO and colder winters in Europe... We'll see I guess.
(worth adding that Joe D'Aleo takes a fairly strong position on causes behind climate change).
Separately on ENSO worth adding Klaus Wolter's 05 May 2011 assessment Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) "odds for a two-year event remain well above 50%, notwithstanding the possibility of temporary weakening during boreal summer."
And Joe D'Aleo's (again) ENSO update which makes the case for "La Nina returning for an encore in weaker form this fall and winter" based on the length of previous similar episodes.
That said there is not much to really suggest a clear correlation between winter in Europe and episodes of La Nina or El Nino. Here is a Met Office chart showing the main impact of La Nina from December to February. Nevertheless it can have an impact on winter in Japan and also the US.
[JAMSTEC IDO incidentally seems to be down at the moment]
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Wed 6-07-11 4:36; edited 1 time in total
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
noza , i am going to Verbier this weekend , and whilst i am not at all expecting snow , I can not find any reliable sources of what the weather is likley to be this weeken .
Can you give me any idea whether it will be sunny or wet and what sort of temps there might be .
Looking at that I would say that it looks like a fair bit of rain will fall on Friday with temperatures dropping quite low over Friday night Saturday morning (and at present this looks like it could bring snow to higher reaches of the Eastern Alps), before warming up and becoming sunnier over the weekend.
I'd caveat that pretty heavily by saying I've only had a quick glance and this is a snapshot and without knowing whether it has been a consistent pattern over the last few runs it is hard to get a feel for how much confidence I would have. There is a fair amount of support for a band of rain coming over on Friday. Here is UKMO for example.
It is slightly less clear though how long the rain will take to move through, or indeed how strong it will be.
The greater the consistency from run to run, the more ensembles that support a particular outcome and the broader the cross model consistency the greater the confidence I would have.
Of course still plenty of time for that all to change. Hope that helps.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Sun 3-07-11 11:28; edited 2 times in total
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Switching to WRF you can see a band of rain currently forecast coming through overnight Thursday into Friday and clearing in the afternoon. GFS operational pulling back slightly though... (incidentally this is just to illustrate rather than an ongoing commentary! )
Just to clarify to avoid confusion. No. You quite obviously cannot tell what the weather will be like in January in the previous April. You can't even tell what the weather will be like at the end of April at the start of April with any confidence. Frankly beyond about seven days all you might get is a trend.
A good stab at tomorrow would be impressive. :
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Again running the 00z WRF animation you can see two pulses of rain approaching Verbier. One coming through this afternoon evening, one tomorrow late morning. This is broadly in line with GFS (though it looks weaker than it did a few days ago). A local weather radar might give you further indications of how the rain is approaching. Temperatures continue to look quite cool Friday night into Saturday morning. And Saturday night won't be warm either. During the day on both Saturday and Sunday it looks like it will be quite sunny (though Monday currently looks like it could produce some heavier rain).
After all it is free
After all it is free
Noza , I greatly apprecaite your help , just knowing what type of clothing to pack helps . I am sure you are aware , especially after the dry season we have just had , but there are literally thousands of people waiting on your every prediction throughout the winter months , those addicts amongst us , want and need any snippet of information , rumour or forecast just to keep the snow withdrawal symptons at bay .
Your predictions keep the addiction going .Thanks again
Guy
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
gwatts10, nozawaonsen, Just looked at the local forecast for my part of Austria and looks like some snow from 1600m up on Friday night and a cool Saturday. See here http://www.wetter.at/wetter/news/Wetter-Prognose-fuer-das-Wochenende-Sommer-legt-Pause-ein/29145630 Picking up new mountain bike Sat am and taking up the gondola (first day of summer operation), so could be some fresh snow to contend with at the top. Make it more interesting ride down, though really can't see snow hanging around for long. Baking right now, mid-20s, looks like an afternoon shower may be brewing up.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Here's a review of the US season from Herb Stevens. It's actually from 19 April, so missed out on the subsequent snowfall in parts of the US and indeed the recent eruption in Iceland...
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
The forecast heavy rain and snow certainly arrived yesterday. Very heavy rain, lots of thunder, big temp drop. Woke this morning to a view of snow covered hills just above town, snow line must be about 1000 - 1100m. The lifts open for summer operation today. Dachstein (2700m) reporting 30cm since last night. Still planning on some downhill mtb action later today but going to be 10+cm of fresh snow to contend with, hmm.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
waynos, and looks like there might be some more heavy rain coming though in the first half of next week...
Anyway zooming right back out and taking a glance at what people are starting to say about November... (and yes, obviously take it all with a pinch of salt...).
The French site TVmountain.com has the following in its six month outlook by "Le Boss," presumably for French mountains (not quite sure on what basis it is compiled mind... but they have some nice videos on the site).
"Novembre 2011
Poursuite du courant de nord-ouest apportant neige et froid."
This following on from a swing towards cool and rainy weather from the North West in October.
"Octobre 2011
De la douceur et du soleil par l’effet d’un courant de sud-ouest mais la bascule au nord-ouest semble réalisable assez rapidement ce qui donnerait immédiatement du temps frais pluvieux."
That should update in the next week I would imagine.
And several models will start to bring that pre season November ish period into sight in the next few days.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Nozawaonsen keep up the good work. Its a shame in many posts that the poster has to coverr at times manyy agles on what they are trying to say because someeone thiks their being clever remarking on thee petty...spelling qmistakes included
Keep posting..i weather forecast for the qfollowing winter as soorn as mrach arrives.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
As expected ENSO conditions now look neutral.
The University of Columbia's International Research Institute produced the following 19 May Summary.
"The moderate to strong La Niña conditions that were observed betweeen mid-August 2010 and early February 2011 weakened during March and April, and dissipated to neutral conditions as of mid-May 2011. For the May-July season currently in progress, there is an approximately 24% probability for returning to La Niña conditions, a 63% probability for remaining in neutral conditions, and a 13% probability for the development of El Niño conditions. Neutral conditions are the most likely scenario throughout the remainder of 2011, although development of El Niño conditions or re-emergence of La Niña conditions cannot be ruled out."
The CPC model has been trending slightly more towards a return of La Nina conditions next winter recently. But certainly not conclusively so.
As mentioned the impact of ENSO conditions on Europe is not clear, however there are much stronger correlations in Australia. Here is a helpful illustration of possible links to weather in Victoria (Mount Buller, Falls Creek etc).
Its been snowing over in parts of the US today and looks like the Alps could get some snow at altitude between rain on 01 June. One of the differences however is the extent of the base they still have in many parts of the US this year compared to the Alps.
That said there was an interesting blog at MountainWeather.com, Snowmelt, Water, and Flood Potential, looking at how some of the SWE %s can be rather misleading at present given the late melt. In average years the big drop off would have begun several weeks ago substantially reducing snow levels. That hasn't happened and in many areas the snow has actually increased. So where you are seeing figures of 200-400% or more of average, that is against the much lower levels you would expect to see as we reach summer.
Another way of looking at it would be the overall precipitation compared to average over the season which still clearly shows how much extra precipitation parts of the north west received (and how parts of the south west suffered).
Which shows how complex really measuring snowfall accurately is (so perhaps hardly any wonder a lot of resort figures seem to have little basis in reality...)
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Mon 4-07-11 23:14; edited 1 time in total
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
On the eve of summer, a little look at what the CFS has been suggesting since mid month for winter and a comparison to see if the recent runs remains broadly consistent with the pattern so far. Something of a snapshot based on the last ten runs (CFS has not been updating that frequently lately) rather than the accumulated runs so far.
Pre season (October, November, December).
Scotland- Broadly consistent, warmer than average temperatures and average precipitation, the last few runs though have been trending colder.
Western Alps - Broadly consistent, colder and drier (ahead of average temperatures and average precipitation) compared to average temperature and precipitation over the course of the run.
Eastern Alps - Broadly consistent, colder than average and average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Broadly consistent, colder than average (just ahead of average) and drier than average.
Early Winter (November, December, January).
Scotland - Broadly consistent, warmer than average and average precipitation (recent runs have trended colder though).
Western Alps - Broadly consistent, though shifting towards colder than average, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Consistent. Colder than average (ahead of average) drier than average (ahead of average).
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Broadly consistent, colder than average (average being the stronger trend after that), average precipitation (drier being the stronger trend after that)
Scotland - No strong trend for temperature so far, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average temperature. Average or drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, tending towards drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average temperatures, drier than average.
Much of the Alps looks to be cycling between average to colder than average temperatures for winter and average or drier than average in terms of precipitation.
So far.
Obviously given we are still six months away from winter this is really just for fun and to see if a pattern establishes itself through summer.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
A couple of further slightly random updates:
NOAA updated ENSO outlook 31 May
• A transition from La Niña conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions is underway
across the equatorial Pacific.
•ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to develop during May-June 2011 and
continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011.
Persistent anti-cyclonic conditions over Europe, exceptionally warm, dry and sunny. April in particular was very warm and dry. Though Mediterranean regions received substantially more rain than normal in March.
This Meteo France chart provides a very good graphic representation of how dry and warm Spring 2011 was in France set against the last 50 years or so.
Of course a warm and dry spring is not necessarily an indicator of a warm and dry summer to come (no more than an exceptionally cold December is an indicator of an exceptionally warm April). And at least for June there are some suggestions that it could get quite a bit wetter than it was during spring in the Alps at least over the next few weeks.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Tue 21-06-11 10:13; edited 3 times in total
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen, yep, those June & July maps in the bottom chart would be perfect for consistent snow in Scotland and the Alps during December & January, intimating high pressure switching from Scandinavia to Greenland and back A cold & cloudy summer on the cards maybe but let's just hope the November one turns out to be correct eh ?
moffatross, certainly looks at present like there could be more snow on the glaciers from midweek, though the snowline would be around 2500-2700m.
CFS has been flirting with a wetter outlook in November for the last few runs, though that's against a slightly longer period of drier runs so far. And anyway LRFs, CFS, reliability etc etc...
Yan Giezendanner(?) has it "rainy and cool" in the French Alps for June.
Looking South, New Zealand has been rather slow out of the blocks so far this season. Coronet Peak has already postponed opening and it doesn't look too great to me for Mt Hutt's planned opening next weekend...
South Island and Central Otago look like they might be rather cooler though than the North Island (albeit perhaps a little drier too).
[edited to correct link]
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sat 11-06-11 11:04; edited 1 time in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen, if I've got my head around that correctly, the above normal temperature seasonal forecast for NZ seems counter intuitive as the MSLP predictions should, by rights, produce an analogue to our Scandinavian High.
"The outlook states that mean sea-level pressures are likely to be above normal to the south and east of the country, and below normal north of New Zealand, with weaker westerlies and more frequent than normal easterly flow over the country.".
Maybe the absence of a landmass near to the S-SE of NZ creates quite different weather than a similar regime does in NW Europe
After all it is free
After all it is free
moffatross, yes, but what you suggest sounds right to me. There's certainly no equivalent to Russia lurking out east! Blocking to the west if it happened though would presumably lead to cold southerlies pushing up from the pole?
And according to the way they see it for now it looks like average temperatures over the Alps.Precipitation tending towards average, though higher closer to the Mediterranean.
Another forecast to keep an eye on over summer if you are interested, to see if it develops a consistent pattern (and indeed whether this starts to chime with other forecasts...).
Meteo Consult suggests the following for November in France...
"... malgré le faible épisode El Nino en perspective, un temps assez froid pourrait caractériser aussi le mois de novembre avec une pluviométrie habituelle, ce qui apporterait alors les premières neiges bienvenues sur nos reliefs..."
So despite a weak El Nino, quite cold November, average rainfall, bringing first snow to the hills.
[not so sure how strong the weak El Nino signal is a present, it looks closer to neutral on the current NOAA output, trending back towards La Nina territory]
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
:
A cold & cloudy summer on the cards maybe but let's just hope the November one turns out to be correct eh ? 
