On a positive note the search in Les Diablarets has been called off with the rescue teams confidant that no one was buried.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looks like two bands of snow in the Alps one on Sunday and the next Monday. Still no real sense for how much it will be, or how far it will reach. Doesn't look massive at this point. Maybe 20cm+, but still very welcome.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Cooling down on Sunday into early next week, though this morning it looks slightly less of a cold blast than it was looking a few days ago. Snowfall across much of the Alps, but perhaps not reaching much beyond Tirol in the east. Possibly returning to some rather mild weather again in a week or so, although the operational runs are mild outliers on this at present.
Here's what WRF currently suggests, but it is shifting back and forth a fair amount.
Yep as expected, the models are now showing a lot less precipitation and less colder weather than they were at the start of this week. Some light snow on Sunday and Monday (if we’re lucky) and then a very quick return to high pressure which now looks like it will affect the Alps for another ten days at least. The overnight ensembles are probably the worst I have seen this week if your looking for snow and colder weather. Don’t think there’s any need now to look at the charts any more before my trip to Austria on the 10th March as it’s obvious now that it’s going to be warm and dry
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen,
Thanks for the updates you give, I still cannot fathom how you work it out, even looking at the beginners guide sticky, it is waaaay over my head, might have to get my husband to start looking at this, he'd probably understand it better. So I like when you tell us what that will mean for different areas, but then when you say beyond Tirol in the East I get lost! Totally dumb at this sort of thing!
Can you (or any of the more knowledgeable than me!) tell me if Italy is likely to get any of the snow, in particular Claviere in the Milky Way?
jimmybog, ? not sure what you mean about it being obvious it will be warm and dry from 10 March nor what you mean about it being expected that the models show it less cold this morning. That seems very prescient to me. It certainly could be warm and dry from 10 March, but it may not.
Gilly28, yes, it looks like there will be further snow in Claviere at the start of next week (you can see that from the fourth and fifth WRF links above). Tirol is the western part of Austria (and part of Italy too, but I digress), what I meant was the main focus of snowfall is currently looking less likely to reach much further east than Tirol.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
- Even with the recent spring like weather what was an extremely cold February is still a cold February.
- Coldest February since 1986, mean temperature anomaly -3.9C (for the first half of February it was 10C below average).
- But some substantial swings, in Guessing (in Burgenland), the temperature was -23.5C on 08 February and 20.9 on 24 February.
- In the southern Alps precipitation was below average for the fourth consecutive month. Only 30% of average rain has fallen in wine growing regions of Austria since November.
- After two rainy months, precipitation levels were below average in Vorarlberg to Salzburg, but average to above average in Salzkammergut to Semmering.
- Snow cover remains good despite recent high temperatures due to heavy falls in January. There was above average snowfall from Salzkammergut to Semmering. However in Vorarlberg and North Tirol snowfall was 50 to 90 percent of normal.
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nozawaonsen, Salzkammergut to Semmering - I assume that's means the area just north of the Enns valley and the Dachstein. I assume the Enns is also above average, though I think north of Dachstein range seems to get more snowfall when it's coming in from NW as it has mostly this season. See this ordered list of Austrian snowdepths http://www.bergfex.com/oesterreich/schneewerte/?sort=Berg,DESC many areas in Salzkammergut with 300m+, Dachstein at 570cm, I wonder if this will be the peak depth, though I assume at that altitude max depths would normally be Mar/April.
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waynos, I think they mean just in a broad west to east way. Vorarlberg to Salzburg being one end of the country, Salkammergut to Semmering being at the other (in terms of the Alps).
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nozawaonsen wrote:
jimmybog, ? not sure what you mean about it being obvious it will be warm and dry from 10 March nor what you mean about it being expected that the models show it less cold this morning. That seems very prescient to me. It certainly could be warm and dry from 10 March, but it may not.
nozawaonsen - When I said “as expected”, what I really meant was that “I expected the models to back off from the idea of colder temperatures and heavy snow that they were showing at the start of this week”. My expectations were based on years of model watching and seeing so many mouth watering scenarios moderated as the time to the said scenarios got nearer. As to my prediction for the 10th March onwards, I was definitely wrong to say “It’s obvious” (completely wrong choice of words there !!). But FWIW I do still believe it will be dry and warm (or should I say warmer than average) for that week.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
jimmybog, fair enough, I'm not convinced that it ever consistently looked like a big storm for next week (or at least not so far). Too much variation between models and runs. I'm also pretty sure that there is some sort of expectation bias which means if you are looking for (hoping for, expecting) one sort of outcome you remember the downgrades more than the upgrades.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Does looker drier but still hopefully enough to top up the off piste?
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
norris, I think 10 to 30 cms depending where you are. So not bad, but not massive.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Incidentally there was also an interesting piece on ZAMG looking at research on whether the extremes in weather this February were part of a broader pattern of increased extreme weather in Austria. Slightly to the researchers surprise the answer was no. There had been a long run increase in mean temperature, but no long term signs of increased volatility and extremes of weather.
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nozawaonsen, andermatt for me but looks more towards the valais
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Interesting looking at the high res low res point in GFS this evening. Some of the ensembles have been kicking around the idea of a push from the north for a while. And it shows up well in this evening's 12z GFS (ECM is less interested this evening, but has suggested it once or twice in the past).
It would bring cooler air across the Alps following milder air at the end of this week. At present snow on 11 March looks like it would be more likely in the central and eastern Alps as the Azores high would force it east. Of course it could slip west or push east and choke it off altogether. Very low confidence, but worth watching to see if it develops any support.
Shorter term a slight firming up of cooler and snowy weather for next Monday this evening. Pendulum still swinging back and forth. And possibly some pretty rainy weather for the British Isles as it pushing across on Sunday. Maybe.
Beyond that some more spring like weather from 08 March, then possibly something a little cooler once again.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
That east west split later this week is exacerbated in this morning's output with the eastern Alps colder and snowier again from 08/09 March through the weekend. Still rather borderline as to whether it plays out that way. Closer in looking colder again tomorrow into Monday.
Terrific 06z run for the Eastern Alps at the end of the week.
Something of an upgrade. Whether it continues in that vein is hard to know. But well worth watching. Not bad in the short term either with tomorrow into Monday looking cold and snowy for many.
Here's a chart showing potential accumulated snowfall (in kg/m2) out to next Saturday.
Gilly28, yes on that chart. The 06z update to the GFS which that chart is based on has substantially increased the snowfall in the Eastern Alps (eastern Switzerland and Austria) in the period from 08 to 11 March, but given that's a few days out and has not had strong support so far I'm not completely convinced by it.
Snowfall for Monday now looks less like favouring the southern Alps (and more like favouring the northern side), although temperatures will drop across the Alps on Monday.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Hmm, liking the idea of a cold n snowy mid April onwards, hope it continues after 6z
After all it is free
After all it is free
GFS and ECM agreeing on the potential for snow in the eastern and central Alps on Thursday.
On both days it will be overcast, accompanied by bright intervals in western regions on Tuesday. By Tuesday morning, as much as 30 cm of snowfall is possible in southern regions and in Grisons; in the remaining regions, less. The snowfall level will drop from 1400 m down to low lying areas. On Monday, the wind will be blowing at intermittently strong velocity from the southwest, then shift to northeasterly. The danger of dry avalanches is expected to increase slightly on Monday. Full depth snowslides continue to be possible."
kitenski, not sure about beyond next weekend. FI is switching back and forth, cold one run, mild the next.
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Well the snow forecast for Thursday looks like being a brief affair as high pressure quickly moves in to cut off the North Westerly flow. After Thursday it looks like high pressure in charge again into the following week.
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jimmybog, "Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?"
In the reliable timeframe, the coming week looks like seeing below average temperatures for the Alps. Some reasonable snowfall tomorrow in many places with 10-30cms of fresh snow looking likely.
Further snow now looking likely in the eastern Alps on Thursday keeping things topped up. Looks to me about 20cm+ in the Arlberg.
Beyond that high pressure and milder temperatures looking possible from 11 March. But at the same time the spread is increasing substantially. So little confidence at this stage.
- Very little snowfall during February.
- Very cold in the first half, ending with a marked thaw and springlike conditions.
- Snow cover remains very good for the Northern Alps, north of the Alpes-Maritime and the Pyrenees.
- But the snow cover in the Southern Alps and Alpes-Maritime is worse than normal.
- Snow conditions in the northern Alps are surprisingly good given snowfall was only 5-15% of normal in February, cold weather in February helped protect the snow cover.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looking at this evening's ensembles much of the coming week looks quite cold with temperatures frequently below average. From next weekend high pressure looks like building bringing more average temperatures in the central and eastern Alps, slightly above elsewhere.
Here's SLF on the short term.
"Short-term development
On Monday it will be heavily overcast. Widespread, 10 to 20 cm of snowfall is anticipated, in Ticino and in the Gotthard region as much as 40 cm of new fallen snow. The snowfall level will drop from 1500 m down to low lying areas. The wind will be blowing at moderate velocity on the northern flank of the Alps, elsewhere at light strength from the southwest, then shift to northwesterly in the evening. Beneath the fresh fallen snow, the snowpack will freeze only very slowly."
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Dumping in Andermatt....
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
jimmybog, "Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?"
Beyond that high pressure and milder temperatures looking possible from 11 March. But at the same time the spread is increasing substantially. So little confidence at this stage.
Nozawaonsen, I wasn't being negative in the slightest. I was simply stating what the charts were showing yesterday morning, which was a brief period of snow (12 to 18 hours of it) on Thursday before high pressure moved in and cut off the North Westerly flow. I'm overjoyed about the possibility of snow on Thursday as I fly out on Saturday to Seefeld. Just don't understand why you thought I was being negative in my post?
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I think perhaps, nowozawonsazownozawonsen was kidding.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
jimmybog, didn't mean to offend. Looks like Seefeld should be good. With some sunny, mild weather kicking in at the weekend. The last couple of ECM runs have been toying with an easterly influence nudging in around the middle of next week.
Be interesting to see if this is still there by evening.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
After some fairly cold temperatures this week, especially Thursday it looks like warming up to more average temperatures for the time of year at the weekend.
Then as jimmybog, flagged up a few days ago, high pressure looks like leading to a period of mild, dry and sunny weather for a while (GFS currently suggests the whole of next week, but as ever that's a little hard to call with confidence). Good weather for getting a sun tan and for watching other people with sun tans.
Here it is on ECM (which didn't follow up on earlier suggestions of colder weather in this evening's run).
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
SLF on yesterday's snowfall in Switzerland.
"From Sunday evening until Monday evening, snow fell over a wide area. The snowfall level dropped from 1600 m to approximately 600 m. From Sunday evening until Monday evening, the following amounts of snow fell above approximately 2000 m: 30 to 50 cm on the main Alpine ridge from the Furka Pass to the Maloja Pass and to the south; 20 to 30 cm in the central and eastern parts of the northern flank of the Alps, northern and central Grisons, and northern Engadine; 10 to 20 cm in the other regions." [SLF]
The basic pattern based on this morning's output continues to suggest this week generally (bar Wednesday) colder than average (with snow in the eastern and central Alps on Thursday). Next week looking above average, sunny and dry.
So it looks like rather dry February and first half of March - I am looking more on France this year as off to 3V on 17th. Austria might be better off in the last few weeks.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
from my very limited few of the wigglies for Stuben they are trending towards a warmer than average spell out in FI after 11th March......
Still time for a few more cold snaps and april showers to kick in before Easter though
nozawaonsen, Any ideas what the predictions might be for Bansko Bulgaria for the next week or so?
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Are the models all agreeing about high pressure taking control for next week? Don't mind either way, but i'd like to decide what skis to take to espace killy on Sunday. My hardsides, or something more skinny.
After all it is free
After all it is free
shoogly, yup looks pretty warm, dry and sunny across the Alps next week.
Garethb, Bulgaria is broadly the same as high pressure dominates Europe, perhaps slightly less above average.
Shorter term WRF suggests the following snowfall for early Thursday.
Which looks like it might bring 20-30cms in places over the course of the day (the Arlberg for example).
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Quote:
Which looks like it might bring 20-30cms in places over the course of the day (the Arlberg for example).
Is it just my biased memory, or has the Arlberg done exceptionally well this year? I know a lot of places got a very good start to the season, but since mid-January it seems the Arlberg, and other nearby areas in Tirol and E. Switzerland are the places that have had the most snow. I know the Tourist Office claim that the Arlberg is a "snow corner", and I know it generally does well for snow, but this year seems to have been (and looks like it will continue to be) very good indeed. At this rate I may have to risk divorce and head out again in late March...
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Yes the Arlberg has done very well this winter. Though to be fair some resorts in the Northern French alps also done well. Maybe not as much as the Arlberg but certainly not far off. And in fact I think the Voralberg area of Austria (close to the Swiss border) had even more snowfall than the Arlberg region did during the December/January storms.
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