 Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen,
what does a strong La Nina mean for snow chances
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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phillip33, in the Pacific North West and Japan it can be very good. In Europe the evidence for correlation between ENSO conditions and climate is much weaker. There is perhaps some indication that weak La Nina events favour cold winters and strong events are more likely to see cold starts and mild ends. But there are numerous other patterns which are likely to have a stronger impact on European weather patterns. Moreover the strong CFS La Nina forecast is not supported by other models at this stage (and NOAA are not currently buying into an event of that strength - and CFS is their model).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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interesting reading - thanks for keeping it maintained fingers crossed for wet, cold winter please 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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NOAA Climate Prediction Centre.
"Synopsis: La Niña conditions have returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12."
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
NOAA Climate Prediction Centre.
"Synopsis: La Niña conditions have returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12." |
Which means??????? 
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what are the affects of La Niña on Euorpe, wasnt there one last year?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Russeh, yes there was quite a strong La Nina last year.
If you take a look through the thread you'll see several pieces on potential impacts of La Nina. In broad terms it has far less impact on Europe than in many other parts of the globe. In terms of snowfall both the US Pacific North West and Japan can often do well. That said no two La Nina or El Nino events are the same and the effects can vary.
In Europe the correlation between ENSO events and climate is not especially strong, but there is some evidence to suggest weak La Nina events can increase the likelihood of cold winters in Europe. Strong La Ninas favouring warm second halves to winter. But as I said the correlation is not strong.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Russeh, yes there was quite a strong La Nina last year.
If you take a look through the thread you'll see several pieces on potential impacts of La Nina. In broad terms it has far less impact on Europe than in many other parts of the globe. In terms of snowfall both the US Pacific North West and Japan can often do well. That said no two La Nina or El Nino events are the same and the effects can vary.
In Europe the correlation between ENSO events and climate is not especially strong, but there is some evidence to suggest weak La Nina events can increase the likelihood of cold winters in Europe. Strong La Ninas favouring warm second halves to winter. But as I said the correlation is not strong. |
Thanks!!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Thanks nozawaonsen, yeah i've been following this thread very interesting. Although dispite having two degrees some of the meteorological terminology is beyound me lol
i'm guessing from some of your past posts that the ideal forecast is cold and with average (or better) precipitation?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Anyone else have a feeling that this season will be like the last meaning minimal snow for Europe. 
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You know it makes sense.
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La Nina is back
LaChaineMeteo Previsions Saisonnieres - Vers un Automne tres frais.
"Contexte global : le phénomène océanique La Nina, prévu de s'affaiblir, semble au contraire devoir se renforcer à nouveau dans les prochains mois selon une réçente étude des climatologues de la NOAA (Administration météorologique américaine). Dans un premier temps, nous tablerons donc sur la poursuite d'une faible Nina jusqu'au printemps prochain 2012, risquant d'entraîner une anomalie froide encore probable pour l'hiver dans l'hémisphère nord."
- initially looking like a weak La Nina potentially leading to a colder than normal winter.
Klaus Wolter
"La Niña appears to have staged a more rapid comeback than anticipated last month, although the overall likelihood of a 'double-dip' La Niña has always been higher than 50%, given the reasoning I gave in September 2010: big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after 'taking time off' during northern hemispheric summer, as last seen in 2008. On the other hand, this month's return to weak La Niña conditions is not guaranteed to continue into the winter either: the La Niña winter of 1988-89 was followed by a brief interlude of ENSO-neutral conditions in early summer of 1989, then a brief return to La Niña in late summer, and back to ENSO-neutral during the subsequent boreal fall and winter. However, that is the only such case in the last six decades, so La Niña is more likely to continue into the fall than not."
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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NASA have updated their experimental seasonal forecasts.
- October November December would see average temperatures and precipitation for the Alps.
- January February March sees a cold anomaly over the Alps. Colder further east. Precipition normal.
Solar Activity through August was relatively low (even in the context of the low activity of SC24). September saw it start to build again before slipping once more.
Some thoughts on winter in the US from Mountain Watch in Jackson Hole.
Outlook for this winter
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Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, loving your work, like a collision between a cold Weather Channel front and a warm wet Wikileaks updraft, condensing blizzards of info all over the slopes of Snowheads. Proceed with this at full speed  !
Yours sincerely,
Voracious Weather Addict.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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roga, James Madden has something of a reputation for predicting cold weather. And also a knack for getting picked up by various media outlets (who tend to like very cold snowmaggedon or very hot BBQ summer forecasts). Doesn't necessarily make him wrong though.
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| Quote: |
Solar Activity through August was relatively low (even in the context of the low activity of SC24). September saw it start to build again before slipping once more.
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this ties in with this
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/
and I know that nobody really knows whats happening and we cannot use the solar activity from one month to say that we're going into a mini ice age but could be awesome in a few years time, finger crossed
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Think the talk of ice ages might be slightly over doing it. Some links to some interesting articles on the subject on second and third pages of the thread.
Overall solar activity has certainly been slowly trending upwards this year and is certainly higher than last year as you would expect for the stage in the cycle. But it remains very low when compared to recent cycles and SC24 is I believe still on course for a 100 year low.
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Could be...
A cold snap bringing snow to parts of Austrian Alps next Sunday/Monday.
Nearest GFS to Hintertux
Plenty of time to change mind.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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New Zealand is having a bit of a wintery episode despite now being spring. Wellington was hit by a freakish hail storm the other day. Cold weather pushing up from the south west bringing snow to the mountains after the gusty (and mild) northerlies over last weekend.
Elsewhere Colarado Powder Forecast is getting excited by the prospect of the first widespread snow at high elevations.
Fairy Dust
And it still currently looks good for snowfall above 1800m in the eastern Alps Sunday into Monday.
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It is pretty cold and wet in my neck of the woods right now (Chiemgau Alpen) and the forecast is none too good for the rest of the week. Typical beginning to the Autumn for us with wild swings between one day and the next.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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It's been snowing in Colorado. NOAA warning of 2 to 6 inches above 10,000 feet.
But possibly quite a bit more heading for the Alps. Especially the Eastern Alps which could see up to 45cm above 1500m (possibly a little below) on Sunday and Monday...
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
It's been snowing in Colorado. NOAA warning of 2 to 6 inches above 10,000 feet.
But possibly quite a bit more heading for the Alps. Especially the Eastern Alps which could see up to 45cm above 1500m (possibly a little below) on Sunday and Monday... |
May have to get the touring skis out, providing I recover from scraping some skin off my leg by falling through a cattle grid yesterday, I'm an idiot and need soft white snow asap to stop me hurting myself.
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You know it makes sense.
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nozawaonsen,
right, glass of wine in hand, be prepared for bad spelling and gramma! i,m back on weather outlook, pleased to see that my old friend
noza is still here and not put off by people like me hurling abuse.
looking forward to all his usual predictions with the caviats?( havent worked out spellcheck on this notebook yet)
i do think noza should try his luck at politics even estate agency, he avoids giving a definate yes to any prediction/ statement . i want to issue a noza challenge this season,forget what the NOAA OR NASA says what are his predictions!? then at the end of the season i can say forget politics/estate agency there,s a place for you at the head of the aforementioned expert departments, Noza i confident you will not reply to this
,but come on play the game
ps i,m not a complete back bottom , just a estate agent , i know whats coming
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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phillip33, do you find that you drinking a little too much these days?
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| he avoids giving a definate yes to any prediction/ statement |
Well, as you know, you can't predict the weather... 
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Poster: A snowHead
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IRI have provided a September update for their seasonal forecasts.
They have pushed back from the last couple of months colder predictions and are now going solidly average throughout bar very early in the season when they still see a cooler anomaly for the western Alps in OND and then milder in NDJ.
October November December Temperature
October November December Precipitation
November December January Temperature
November December January Precipitation
December January February Temperature
December January February Precipitation
January February March Temperature
January February March Precipitation
As to the caveats, well it just means warnings, generally to highlight that given how unpredictable weather is and limited forecasting is, it would be rash to have too much confidence in the outcome.
For what it's worth my own vague thoughts on the coming season at this stage based on the model output so far are a colder than average start in the Alps, but without quite the seesaw of last season. So cold less deep, but lasting longer (so not quite so hot by the end of winter start of spring), but it's still some time to go and plenty could change. CFS is not at this stage showing deep blocking around Greenland except perhaps in late Autumn and is more inclined to situate high pressure to the west or south west of the UK (apparently ECM is showing something similar according to Matthew Hugo). That could still restrict precipitation though at this stage it doesn't seem likely to be quite as dry as last season. Anyway that's how it seems to me.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen,
caveats, thats how you spell it !!, and thanks for the prediction , i,ll hold you to it,well not all of it especially if its alittle bit wetter
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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LaChaineMeteo's seasonal forecast for France has been updated.
Prévisions saisonnières : un automne froid et un hiver long
- This year, the winter may be less brutal than last year, but the cold and snowfall may last longer...
- December: Quite cold... [though] currently, the temperature anomalies appear less marked than at the same time last year.
- January: Predominantly cold.
Here's their take on the coming cold snap.
Premières neiges en montagne ce week-end
SLF also has a piece on the likely snowfall.
Conditions hivernales avec de la neige jusqu'en dessous de la limite de boisement.
- Snowfall line dropping swiftly from 3000m to 1500m
- In the Grisons (in the east) 60 to 80 cm above 3000m and 30 to 40 cm above 2000m.
- Lower Valais 30 to 60 cm above 3000m and 10 to 30 cm above 2000m.
An looking further east, JAMSTEC adds the following commentary on the coming winter.
"Northeast Asia (eastern China, Korea and western Japan) would have warm/wet condition in this fall season and colder weather in winter."
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This is how CFS saw winter and spring 2011/12 during the first half of September.
In general the forecast was consistent with the previous fortnight.
- probability of a colder start to winter across the whole of Europe.
- drier than average conditions likely in the Alps throughout winter.
- colder weather reaching up until the end of winter in the Alps, less clear that it will last beyond January in the UK.
- Spring looking average or warmer than average across Europe.
Consistency continues to build around a colder than average start to winter from CFS, a pattern that the model has been developing since spring.
So again in some ways the pattern; cold start, dry and warmer spring, has some similarity to last season. That said last year had record breaking cold in December and record warmth and dryness in spring. Just because models are suggesting a higher probability of a colder start, warmer spring and dry conditions does not necessarily mean that last seasons extremes will be replicated.
Pre season (October, November, December).
Scotland- Colder than average, drier than average precipitation.
Western Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average, split with wetter than average.
Early Winter (November, December, January).
Scotland - Colder than average, drier than average.
Western Alps - Colder than average, split between average precipitation and drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, split between average precipitation and drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
Winter (December, January, February).
Scotland - Colder than average, wetter than average or average precipitation.
Western Alps - Colder than average, wetter or drier than average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, average or drier than average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
Late Winter (January, February, March)
Scotland - Warmer than average, average or wetter than average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average temperatures, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Average temperatures, drier than average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average temperature, drier than average.
Early Spring (February, March, April)
Scotland - Warmer than average temperatures, wetter than average or average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average or warmer than average temperatures, drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Average temperatures, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Warmer than average temperature, drier than average.
Spring (March, April, May)
Scotland - Warmer than average temperatures, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average temperatures, drier than average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Warmer than average or average temperatures, drier than average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average temperatures, drier than average precipitation.
Back to more immediate events and the Salzburg Avalanche Bulletin is warning of up to 1m of snowfall from the current storm (which seems to have strengthened in expected intensity and coldness in the last few days) in some places before milder autumn weather reasserts itself later this week.
Kurzzeitig Lawinengefahr Mitte September
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Tomorrow morning should be a good day to get some photos of early snow in the mountains [edit: though it looks like it's a little too cloudy so far] before the temperatures rise over the next few days back to normal milder early Autumn temperatures.
Weather Services International (who provide updates to energy traders) has provided an early winter forecast.
Early Heating Season to be Cold in UK and Western European Mainland
"The high-latitude atmospheric blocking regime, as manifested by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), is expected to dominate the pattern again across Europe during late autumn and early winter," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. "We currently expect the coldest temperatures to be confined to western Europe, as we do not expect the blocking to be as severe as during the last two winters."
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Some winter thoughts from Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo at Weatherbell. One does need to aim off slightly for their strong stance on climate change (not implying that it's wrong or right just that it is there).
La Nina's reprise has important implications globally.
"Another harsh winter is expected in China and at least the first half of the winter in North America and Western Europe. More heavy snow will accompany the cold..."
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WSI look west...
Increasing Chances of Below-Normal Temperatures in Eastern and Central US by November/December
"... below-normal temperatures will become more common in the eastern US in November and across all of the northern US by December,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The combination of the newly-emerging La Nina event and the continued trend towards North Atlantic atmospheric blocking support both support this hypothesis.”
"In December, much-colder-than-normal temperatures across the northern tier of the U.S..."
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FAQ
At low altitude in the Western Alps maybe so but last season was another fine one in Scotland & Easter's snow was rather nice in Ischgl. 
