 Poster: A snowHead
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| pam w wrote: |
| ski-finder, snow-forecast (which I believe is GFS-based?) is showing 4150m and 3950m FL for 21/22 November. |
I think that is right, torrential rain expected to high altitudes on Sunday in the Alps then getting colder with the zero iso around 2000m towards the end of November and more rain... ahem I mean snow. So that might restart are base above 1800 meters.
Unless someone in an armchair in Surrey knows better?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
Although November has not started well, an Indian Summer approaches with the calm before the storm. Bastardi says around late December, the temperatures will start to flip and become very cold.
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basically a nice way of saying what I already said. forget december, its coming in january.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Jonny luv plums, I hope you're wrong but you may well be right as the latest output shows a slight warming again at the beginning of December 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Unless someone in an armchair in Surrey knows better?
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Ouch! 
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brian
brian
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Next weekend = 
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Samerberg Sue, it's a load of old tripe.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It is an El Nino year.
Temps in some waters around the globe are near record highs.
As predicted, the European Alpine Winter has started off as a warm one.
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"It is an El Nino year"
so is el nino good or bad for snow in Europe ?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| kendub wrote: |
"It is an El Nino year"
so is el nino good or bad for snow in Europe ? |
Simple question. Tricky to answer. Maybe.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| kendub wrote: |
"It is an El Nino year"
so is el nino good or bad for snow in Europe ? |
Hot oceans = hot air temperatures.
It typically means hot weather and melting.
Like most of November so far.
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You know it makes sense.
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spoke to my son in Sydney this morning - 40 degrees out there. We had winds of up to Force 11 again this morning. But signs for colder weather in the Alps look reasonably promising, don't they?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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pam w, i agree at least a shift back to season temps... just hoping some snow comes with it. Good signs higher up for snow over the next week although likely to fall as rain in most resorts.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| kendub wrote: |
"It is an El Nino year"
so is el nino good or bad for snow in Europe ? |
Hot oceans = hot air temperatures.
It typically means hot weather and melting.
Like most of November so far. |
I don’t think that follows. A degree (if that) hotter water a couple of thousand miles will make zilch difference directly. The El ninio effect is more about disruption of normal weather patterns. In any given place this can mean hotter or colder, wetter or dryer Etc. Etc.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| ringingmaster wrote: |
| Whitegold wrote: |
| kendub wrote: |
"It is an El Nino year"
so is el nino good or bad for snow in Europe ? |
Hot oceans = hot air temperatures.
It typically means hot weather and melting.
Like most of November so far. |
I don’t think that follows. A degree (if that) hotter water a couple of thousand miles will make zilch difference directly. The El ninio effect is more about disruption of normal weather patterns. In any given place this can mean hotter or colder, wetter or dryer Etc. Etc. |
Upper-ocean temps were about a degree below-average last year. The Alps were cold for most of the 2008-2009 season.
Upper-ocean temps are about a degree above-average this year. The Alps will be warm for most of the 2009-2010 season.
Anyone going on ski vacation should head as high as possible.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Upper-ocean temps were about a degree below-average last year. The Alps were cold for most of the 2008-2009 season.
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The French Alps had slightly below average (on the 40 yr trend) temperatures for Dec, Jan, Feb so don't give up hope yet.
Still it looks like the 5th Dec when some resorts open will be largely on artificial base with just a bit of fresh from the 29-30th Nov.
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Whitegold I really don't think two data points provide sufficient data to identify the correlation you are making. In fact, if you plotted the data you just described on a graph in a GCSE physics exam you would be horribly marked down because for insufficient data. I'm not saying there isn't strong data correlating El Nino and warmer than average temps in the alps (I have no idea if there is or isn't) just that as a general rule of statistics you need rather a lot of data before you can be certain.
However you are not alone, humans appear to be extremely good and identifying trends and patterns. I assume this is because this is an excellent way of learning most of the time (i.e. don't touch the cooker as it hurt last time). However, when it comes to statistical data, with noise, humans tend to be rubbish -see price bubbles, economic crashes etc for details. Furthermore, unless underlying mechanistic connection can be identified, it is always risky to observe existing correlations and assume that they always hold.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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So I just hope that this is a load of old tripe!
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I think that's a fair bet, Samerberg Sue. 
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snowforever,
IMMUTABLE LAWS OF THE UNIVERSE
1. There is no such thing as "too much snow".
2..........
3........
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Wags, that little bug is very clever..... had me poking my screen.
However, there is most definitely too much snow, if you're only there for a short time and all the lifts are closed. Happened last year to my niece in Val Thorens and a couple of years before to my nephew in Mammoth.
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brian
brian
Guest
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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It's weather, it's ALWAYS anomalous.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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It's weather, it's ALWAYS anomalous
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well if that was the case we'd never have any weather forecasts - but they've been doing rather well recently. All the gales, rain, etc have come along just as predicted. and unless they're wrong, there's no end in sight.
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You know it makes sense.
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La Thuile was supposed to open this weekend but it's not, there's no snow. I blame myself for starting to watch the web cams far too early!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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queen bodecia, absolutely. The whole thing is your own fault. Not just La Thuile, the whole Alps. It's very early; whilst some high resorts have always opened early, is it my imagination or are some pretty medium kind of altitude places looking at some silly-early opening dates? La Thuile resort is below 1500m for goodness' sake!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Bastardi seems like a bit of a nutter, but perhaps that's just me. Loud echoes of axes being ground!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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what do the colours represent on these monthly graphs in his link, temperature???
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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cheers, was getting worried because greenland was looking rather warm in feb!!!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Ricklovesthepowder wrote: |
| what do the colours represent on these monthly graphs in his link, temperature??? |
Above and below seasonal average. See the scale at the bottom.
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Bastardi seems like a bit of a nutter, but perhaps that's just me. Loud echoes of axes being ground!
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Er yes, not too sure about his broader argument.
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If you want to find the GFS graph near your destination ski resort I have tried to capture them here:
http://www.ski-finder.co.uk/mapgfs.html
Note: This does not display all ski resorts in Europe but should help you find the nearest GFS graph - comments/suggestions appreciated
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ski-finder,
Legend! Thanks for that!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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ski-finder, yes, good resource! 
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| Wags wrote: |
snowforever,
IMMUTABLE LAWS OF THE UNIVERSE
1. There is no such thing as "too much snow".
2..........
3........ |
That bug had me fooled!! I tried to brush it off the screen 
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FAQ
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