 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
ski-finder, snow-forecast (which I believe is GFS-based?) is showing 4150m and 3950m FL for 21/22 November. I've found that their FLs tend to drop as the days get closer, thankfully. But it's a long way out. And there's still a couple of weeks after that for it to get cold and wet. Or even cold and dry would be acceptable, so they can blow snow. Fingers crossed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
pam w, let's hope 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
Looks like it was a glitch as it's now sorted itself out looking far less scary! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
it all looks horrible. I don't think I'm going to look at another forecast for a week, and then hope for a lovely surprise (or a least for freezing levels a bit lower than 3000m).
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
I was in Munich a few days ago.
In a tshirt. In blazing sun. In the middle of Nov.
Not good.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
thefatcontroller, if that forecast holds you'll be fine.
remember that the forecast id at 850hp - this equates i believe to about 1500m above sea level. so from the 25th on freezing should be below tignes, and by the end of forecast below les brevieres, also being below seasonal average. lots of spikes and activity on the precipitation so should be something falling.
(i know it's a forecast and they change all the time, but everyone seems to be doom-mongering based on the same forecast)
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
rogg, I'm an eternal optimist and 2 weeks is one hell of a long time in November. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
rogg, I wasn't meaning to doom-monger.. but that green line consistently over 10oC scared me! Seems to have sorted itself out and although a long way out looks for more healthy
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
ski-finder, the green line is very highly strung and often pops out the back for a quick toke to calm it's nerves. it's imagination runs riot and it predicts doom and gloom when the paranoia hits in. the grey line is the average of all the runs, and is altogether less inclined to partake, so is more likely to have a more rounded outlook on life. i reckon if you're going to take a stab at longer range, the grey fellas the one for a punt.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
| Quote: |
2 weeks is one hell of a long time in November
|
thefatcontroller, you are, of course, absolutely right. It is nonetheless dispiriting to see forecasts of days and days of 3500m freezing levels, just as it was exciting to see all the new snow two weeks ago. I said then that weather in November is pretty irrelevant to what happens by Christmas and I was roundly castigated by some SHs - but the same holds true now. Most of the new snow is going to have melted before there's much chance of any more - but it only takes a couple of good storms to transform the picture.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
Long way out but the longer range forecast does at least seem to show temps back towards seasonal average nearer zero, latest run showing plenty of precipitation activity too... we'll have to wait and see
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
robboj, speak for yourself, I'm avidly watching every wiggle ahead of my first trip in a week's time. And it doesn't look that bad - there's probably a temp drop coming around the 23rd, with the possibility of some precipitation after that (normal caveats about it being far too far away to draw any meaningful conclusions etc. etc.). It does seem to depend heavily which run you're looking at though... the 06Z is a definite favourite at the moment
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
ChrisWo, definitely seems to be an improved outlook in perfectly good time for the season start. Where are you heading?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
ChrisWo, sorry for possibly dumb question but what do you mean by "06Z run"?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
bobinch,
To quote the 'master of wigglies' carled.
Ensembles:
All the major numerical models (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO etc) run more than once each time they are issued. The reason for this is that although they each get fed a lot of data into them for each run, the data can never be considered perfect. To counteract this the model is run again with slight changes to the original data. Using the GFS as an example, the model is run 10 more times, 5 times with the data positively changed and 5 times with the data negatively changed.
By following the ensembles you can get an idea of the likelihood of the forecast given by the main (control) run of the model being correct - if a large number of the ensemble runs are very similar to it, it is a good indication that confidence is reasonably high of the outcome. If very few of the ensemble runs show that outcome, then it is quite probable that it may well change.
The ensembles are done four times a day and are known as "00z", "06z", "12z" and "18z". They are generally available on about a 6 hour delay, so you can see the 00z until around midday, when it will change to the 06z and so on... The data input into the forecasts changes on each run as follows:
00z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
06Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data
12Z - Shipping data, Satellite data ONLY
18Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
Basically you want to see low temps in conjunction with precipitation in order to achieve the best snow possibilities!
Have a look at the Beginers guide to......... at the top of the Snow reports page  All the info you need is there.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
The wiggly consensus seems to be for a cooling trend from the 27th onwards We just need all the runs to start to agree in unison but I am going to stick my head above the parapet and suggest the end of the month into early December is starting to look promising.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| Quote: |
That said maybe we have been 'spoiled' in the last couple of seasons with the good early snow.
|
Have we? Last year was certainly good, indeed exceptional, but I recall early 2007 being fairly rubbish.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
That said maybe we have been 'spoiled' in the last couple of seasons with the good early snow.
|
Have we? Last year was certainly good, indeed exceptional, but I recall early 2007 being fairly rubbish. |
Depended where you were. In the East it started very well, deep snow falling in Austria from mid November, though a complete drought all through February. There are some echoes this year of early 2006/2007, but then it just didn't snow and stayed warm all through December and much of January, hopefully the temperature drop will come end November, early December!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ski-finder, yep, I'm sure it'll be fine by early Dec...it's just how quickly that cold snap arrives that bothers me 
Not sure where we're off to yet...have flights to Zurich, but from there who knows. Possibly Zermatt/Saas Fee, given the recent temps and lack of snow...
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
|
|
|
|
I predict sod all snow and sod all lifts open until the new year.
There, someone had to say it. I couldnt care what the wigglies say, when it's foehn time nothing makes sense. 14 deg C at 1300m yesterday, awesome. Even the grass has started growing again 
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
robboj, you should apply for the job as president of the EU,I think they are looking for someone who doesnt sit on the fence
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
You miserable beggar, it'll be fine by week 2 of December, snow everywhere. IT WILL BE FINE.
I might pack my bike.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
doesn't lok so bad to me. Was expecting a green field!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
snowforever, well it would have been a lovely white field just a short while ago and will become a greener one shortly. The webcams I watch, all white up to a few days ago, are now green; snow seems to be melting at a phenomenal rate in balmy and unseasonal temperatures which look like continuing for some time to come.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
pam w, what are the closest co-ordinates for you then? Looking not too bad after 23rd Nov for 7 46
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Geneva latest GFS run:
Looking OK for 30th onwards...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
What we need is snowangel to impart for full moon forecasting to tell us when to expect the next bug dump.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| tobymory wrote: |
| What we need is snowangel to impart a full moon forecast to tell us when to expect the next bug dump. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
tobymory, did you just quote yourself??
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
Oops. Sorry, fat fingers on my keyboard...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ski-finder, Actual coordinates are 6.550 45.750
All looks a bit undecided and unreliable to my (very unpractised) eye.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
pam w, yes "undecided and unreliable" is a bit different to the current conditions continuing for some time. It looks like at a trend towards more seasonal temps, certainly no indications of 10+ degrees we've seen lately... maybe i'm just more naturally optimistic or less of a realist! Time as always will tell!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I'm liking that! Probably worth about as much as a snow-dance, but still, makes good reading.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
That said Italien und Schweiz were also at least OK, which is fine by me 
