 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
carled, it needs to stay for us Saalbachers this weekend
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
Smokin Joe, If that peak stays and comes off then you'll be skiing a few feet UNDER the top layer of powder unless you're exceptionally tall and/or buoyant... It's a glitch...
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| carled wrote: |
| Smokin Joe, If that peak stays and comes off then you'll be skiing a few feet UNDER the top layer of powder unless you're exceptionally tall and/or buoyant... It's a glitch... |
I guessed so - when is the next run due ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
Smokin Joe, the charts will start to update from about 9.30pm. The ensemble chart won't be up till about midnight though.
The operational runs at a higher resolution, so does sometimes pick things up first, but the odds are it will be at least scaled down and don't be too heartbroken if it disappears !
Last edited by brian on Mon 21-01-08 22:02; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
Well it was a blisteringly hot day out here today, quite gloriously enjoyable, with plenty of great snow. And gonna get cold and snow tomorrow. All the forecasts agree. This is just a fantastic winter so far.
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
About a metre for the Arlberg on that run ! 
Freezing level 1000m or thereabouts, snowline could be as low as 6-700. Wonder if it'll still be there in the morning ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
Don't even joke about evil things like egg custard... Just watch and wait whilst the weather gods shove the whole caboodle off to the west, chucking down unforeseen amounts of snow across the stranger regions of eastern europe leaving warm and dry air over the alps...
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
carled, it's on the 18z therefore it has survived "beyond this run". Custard time !
Smokin Joe, a good 60cm+ for Saalbach.
Still think it's odds on to be scaled back considerably but you never know ....
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
Brian are you saying that my 40cm mentioned earlier still a possibility......and maybe not to fall as rain........
PS thanks for that chart you referred me to - the temps on it were encouraging for a low resort like Niederau
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
carled,
don't worry - you just forecast me some snow on the 27th - if it comes I will promise to eat eat all of your egg custard for ever !!!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
It's chucking it down here, at 1500m. Was still warm at bed time last night, started sleeting some time in the night but now just below freezing and probably dropping. Windy. It has already dumped more than snow-forecast suggested for the whole day and if it carries on like this I will need to get out into the garage and put the chains on, in the dry, before heading to Geneva later. I shall do so with pleasure. Am waiting for that lovely orange flashing light which indicates that the plough is out there making my life easiser.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
pam w, As you say, really chucked it down earlier, although clearing a bit. Here in Peisey village its rain though at 1200m. Glad to here its fresh higher up, although it will be heavy. Windy as well
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| brian wrote: |
carled, it's on the 18z therefore it has survived "beyond this run". Custard time !
Smokin Joe, a good 60cm+ for Saalbach.
Still think it's odds on to be scaled back considerably but you never know .... |
I'm off to M&S to buy a large Egg Custard for Carled
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
carled, At least your not a Cowardly Cowardly Custard!!! when it comes to your predictions 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
Do the latest runs have the cold and wet fronts pushing slightly more to the west to wards the northern french alps from thurs 31st onwards ,I do hope so as I am off to Meribel that day.
Too early I know ,but it has improved over the last couple of runs as before they seemed to be blocked by a wall of high pressure ,pushing everything in a more north easterly direction.Am I reading this correctly?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Latest runs have about 25-30cm of now in the Tarantaise on Sat / Sun night !!! (26th/27th)....
That would be my dream come true ! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
Alex A, I fear too many mountains in the way before it gets there. My reading of that run is it wouldn't be that much that far south. The lump of precip did push in to France though, so a step in your direction.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| brian wrote: |
| Alex A, I fear too many mountains in the way before it gets there. My reading of that run is it wouldn't be that much that far south. The lump of precip did push in to France though, so a step in your direction. |
As you say..a step in the right direction ever the optomist me !
Can you explain why J2SKI as an example has 4cm forecast for Les menuires and 27cm for Val Thorens ? That must be a mistake they are in the same valley ! Same with La Plagne and Les Arcs...one has lots and one 4cm....also Tignes says 4cm and Saint Foy 27cm !! Must be a mistake....ie the 27cm is wrong by the sounds of it?
Alex
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
Alex A, they must be on the borderline between different gridpoints on the GFS. Sometimes the closest gridpoint isn't necessarily what you want for a location however, eg. Courmayeur is very close to Argentiere (where the 46N 7E gridpoint is) but thanks to Mont Blanc being in the way, has very different weather.
If they're using the 1 degree gridpoints then it's quite possible they could be a long way out.
Anyway, just looked at the 12z and bad news for France and Switzerland, the precip moved to Austria only.
A localised blob like this is a nightmare for the automated forecast sites because they look bloody stupid yo-yoing between 50cm, oops no that's 10cm ... actually 80cm .... oh well, dry after all.
I think the latest is in line with ECM and UKMO, so I think the more likely scenario. If only carled had said 24 hours for his custard
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
Alex A,
| Quote: |
Latest runs have about 25-30cm of now in the Tarantaise on Sat / Sun night !!! (26th/27th)....
That would be my dream come true !
|
Me to - were off to les Arcs on Sat night and current forecasts Im looking at say it getting hotter with no snow 
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
I note that the damn great spike has utterly vanished from Brian's chart posted at the bottom of the previous page... Just too late for me and that horrible gunge I ate this morning... bleh!
What's that? Where's it gone? No idea... Stupid weather.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oh and to those people that ask why "site x" shows xcm in one location when "site y" shows 30cm or "site z" shows nothing at all... it's simply down (in the main) to when they update their forecasts! If each site is using a different GFS run then they are all showing forecasts derived from different data! Hardly surprising therefore that their snow amounts don't coincide!
Trust me... not ONE of them knows for sure how much snow will fall and microscopic changes at the last minute can provide huge local variations. You aren't missing out because you're looking at the wrong site... the "right site" just doesn't exist. If anyone does get it right, it's utter coincidence beyond anything general in the extreme. Read the "Beginners guide to gfs forecasting" thread for more information and stop flapping! This time last year it was much, much, MUCH worse...
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
carled, Rubbish ! It's awful, there is no snow, there hasn't been any snow .. and I can forecast PRECISELY how much will fall 0 Cms
,,,, and its snowing again 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
It didn't seem to snow as low as forecast today - just rain, or very sleety stuff, below around 1350m round here. A good fall up higher, though.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
parallel lines, we're all DOOMED, DOOMED I tell ye! Never mind the forecasts. Remember what conditions were like last year. And in the words of the milk snatcher -REJOICE
(Thinks - Where would I rather be this weekend - Birmingham with rain and grey, grey, skies - or in the Alps skiing at the foot of the Eiger Oh yes! I remember> I will be in Switzerland this weekend (Smug, smug)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shouldn't really admit this but I did check the GFS sites when I was in Morzine last Feb. Got to say although the resort was not particualrly picturesque and the horses grazing on the south facing slopes a bit sureal we had some fab ski-ing. Would just love to have some powder days this year......18 more sleeps!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sunshine and clear skies at Whistler, but looks like snow is on the way again as of this weekend
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
The latest runs are starting to look promising for the first week of Feb, colder temps and some good old 'Niederschlag' consistently throughout the week.
It will probably fizzle out as most fronts seem to have done of late but heres hoping,especially as I am out to Meribel for a few days at back end of next week.
Next hopecast update later this evening
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
hedley, as I have been saying recently, there is considerable promise starting from around the turn of the month. Might come to nothing or fizzle out damp squib style but a good space to watch nonetheless !
All of the big 3 show a big retrogression of high pressure into the N atlantic at about T+144 from which good things may flow (from the North !)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
)
