 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| bar shaker wrote: |
| I think Stanton makes some very good points and there is no denying the message in the thread title. |
Well thankyou.
Some folks here just do not like hearing reality. They go all defensive...
I really cannot understand how anyone can say that this season for Brits will be same cost as last season.
I have more bad news but this time not Brexit.
This will result in higher fuel bills (flights etc
http://www.businessinsider.de/oil-boom-coming-sooner-than-you-think-2017-7?r=US&IR=T
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
@snoozeboy,
Exactly you got it..
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
If you widen the scope of the question beyond currency rates, then you may see a degree of price revision to compensate, insofar as it's feasible and relevant to a specific customer. For example, TéléVerbier has introduced a CHF 400 Annual Pass for under-25s (a saving of over 1,000 CHF against the usual charge) and is currently offering a 12.5% advance booking discount for season passes. The Valais Magic Pass is a multi-resort and thermal baths winter Season Pass for 400 CHF which looks like good value. And MySwitzerland.com should be offering some winter packages along the lines of the summer ones (typically rail+skipass and accomodation+rail etc. packages).
These will only be of interest to certain types of visitor, of course. And they particularly come into their own if you return for further trips (which is part of the idea of the Season Passes). Nevertheless, to answer the OP question, these developments do provide an 'it depends' element to the answer.
These season pass initiatives presumably include an expectation that someone who buys a season for the first time will return to the area, and spend more money than they would have done, to the detriment of a competing resort. The customer pays less but the loser resort loses even more, funding the discount to the customer. So it's not any sort of last-versus-next season, normalised comparison. For a subset of customers, it may also make a return trip affordable when it otherwise wouldn't have been, as there's no skipass charge.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
Every 10% increase in the Euro is 0.7% off the French PIB. Macron is not happy with the way Brexit negotiations are going at the moment.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
@davidof, Is that broadly the French for GDP?
I assume most of the Union Leadership in France has had a nice month on the beaches and are refreshed to take on Macron. I wonder whether the strikes will come this season or next?
Meanwhile in poor old Blighty Manufacturing Confidence is rising, we are approaching full employment and house prices in London are recovering (not great if you want to buy there I admit). So even though this year is going to be a bit more expensive than last most of the country will be feeling wealthier (even if the London Media want us to believe otherwise).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| davidof wrote: |
| ........Macron is not happy with the way Brexit negotiations are going at the moment. |
Then he should not be saying silly things like wanting the UK to "... cave in..." to EU demands. Asking for 100 Billion Euros over the next 7 years is "incroyable"!!!
The talk now is of just walking away and letting the EU p155 in the wind for any more money.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@skimastaaah, ^ that would be bad for the EU and worse for the UK. No point in cutting off noses to spite faces. Much better to start negotiating sensibly to get the best deal for both sides
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| skimastaaah wrote: |
| davidof wrote: |
| ........Macron is not happy with the way Brexit negotiations are going at the moment. |
Then he should not be saying silly things like wanting the UK to "... cave in..." to EU demands. Asking for 100 Billion Euros over the next 7 years is "incroyable"!!!
The talk now is of just walking away and letting the EU p155 in the wind for any more money. |
Where did you see Barnier asking for 100 BEUR?
And here is a simplified version of whatbis at stake b an american news outlet: http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-bill-politico-policy-guides-eu-uk-negotiations/
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nice link
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
| LaForet wrote: |
If you widen the scope of the question beyond currency rates, then you may see a degree of price revision to compensate, insofar as it's feasible and relevant to a specific customer. For example, TéléVerbier has introduced a CHF 400 Annual Pass for under-25s (a saving of over 1,000 CHF against the usual charge) and is currently offering a 12.5% advance booking discount for season passes. The Valais Magic Pass is a multi-resort and thermal baths winter Season Pass for 400 CHF which looks like good value. And MySwitzerland.com should be offering some winter packages along the lines of the summer ones (typically rail+skipass and accomodation+rail etc. packages).
These will only be of interest to certain types of visitor, of course. And they particularly come into their own if you return for further trips (which is part of the idea of the Season Passes). Nevertheless, to answer the OP question, these developments do provide an 'it depends' element to the answer.
These season pass initiatives presumably include an expectation that someone who buys a season for the first time will return to the area, and spend more money than they would have done, to the detriment of a competing resort. The customer pays less but the loser resort loses even more, funding the discount to the customer. So it's not any sort of last-versus-next season, normalised comparison. For a subset of customers, it may also make a return trip affordable when it otherwise wouldn't have been, as there's no skipass charge. |
I don't see the Swiss discounting as being in response to Brexit and I don't see the target market being holidaying Brits. I think the target market of Televerbier and Magic Pass promotions is more the Swiss themselves and is a response to the soaring value of the CHF. The Swiss in cantons close to the borders have the choice of skiing in Verbier or the Magic Pass resports or nipping across to France, Germany or Austria to benefit from the CHF's strength against the EUR. The CHF has climbed from being 1.5 CHF to the Euro, to near parity, so it's a big difference. First came the discounted Saas Fee season pass, which seemed a crazy deal and was a huge success in terms of the takeup and secondary spend in Saas Fee. The Magic Pass is another excellent deal and we're wondering now what will be the effect on the Portes de Soleil and whether it will respond in a race to the bottom.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I thought the question was if next season would be more expensive, not would it be more expensive exclusively because of the result of the Brexit Referendum and subsequent triggering of Article 50?
Although the thread has turned into 26 pages of Remain vs Brexit meanderings, I was answering the original question. Perhaps I misunderstood.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
@LaForet,
The Original Question is still vaild
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
| chocksaway wrote: |
@davidof, Is that broadly the French for GDP?
|
It is against a basket of trade weighted currencies. A 10% climb in the Euro costs France 0.7% in GDP. Given that unemployment has been growing over the last 3 months and the French economy is not exactly surging ahead it is very worrying for the new administration.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
... and will be pissing Frau Merkel off as well.
On the Swiss question, they are probably trying to keep locals in the country rather than attracting visitors.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| snoozeboy wrote: |
I don't see the Swiss discounting as being in response to Brexit and I don't see the target market being holidaying Brits. I think the target market of Televerbier and Magic Pass promotions is more the Swiss themselves and is a response to the soaring value of the CHF. The Swiss in cantons close to the borders have the choice of skiing in Verbier or the Magic Pass resports or nipping across to France, Germany or Austria to benefit from the CHF's strength against the EUR. The CHF has climbed from being 1.5 CHF to the Euro, to near parity, so it's a big difference. First came the discounted Saas Fee season pass, which seemed a crazy deal and was a huge success in terms of the takeup and secondary spend in Saas Fee. The Magic Pass is another excellent deal and we're wondering now what will be the effect on the Portes de Soleil and whether it will respond in a race to the bottom. |
Correct, IMO. Our season pass is now CHF666 vs CHF950 last season. Nothing to do with Brexit, the Swiss wintersports industry has a problem.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
Skiing in Switzerland amount the young is dying. More young Brits,Irish kids hit the slopes than Swiss kids.
They rather just play computer games.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| musher wrote: |
... and will be pissing Frau Merkel off as well.
On the Swiss question, they are probably trying to keep locals in the country rather than attracting visitors. |
Macron had what was described as "a frank exchange of views" with Barnier in a meeting at the end of July and told Barnier "to get on with it". Barnier repeated these words to David Davis - Macron feels that the message isn't getting through to Barnier who seems to merit his nickname in French political circles of "the cretin of the Alps".
Anyway Macron will be able to discuss all this, along with the Greek issue, with Merkel, later this week.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| davidof wrote: |
"the cretin of the Alps".
excellent sobriquet indeed
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
| stanton wrote: |
Skiing in Switzerland amount the young is dying. More young Brits,Irish kids hit the slopes than Swiss kids.
They rather just play computer games. |
That's the nicest thing you have ever said here.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| stanton wrote: |
| http://www.planetski.eu/news/9487 |
So a group of relatively small businesses (in comparison to the likes of Crystal, etc etc) held a meeting because:
1) They are poo scared that they might not be able to attract the British seasonaire.
2) They might have to actually increase the salary for seasonaires to make it affordable or they are worried they won't get the staff
3) They are worried the stronger Euro will put Brits off OR they will have to price more competitively
4) They are worried about less income / profit
5) The pubs in Meribel are bricking it as Brits won't drink as much.
Yep sounds about right.
Now I'm sure you posted this in some way to reinforce your original point, but as with anything there are 2 views, and I just see that they are Sh1ting themselves.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@PaulC1984,
Dont you think they shoud not be.
Their livelyhoods are being ruined.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
I came back from a week selling at a trade event in Cologne last week. For the first time, I really had to think about whether, or not to sit on the Euros.
I spent a morning reading articles and forecasts and came to the conclusion that 60% of the experts were saying sell Euros, the pound will get stronger, so I did, on Monday. I could end up regretting it.
Hitchin, on the other hand peaked at 5000 dollars this week. I think it started at less than a cent!
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
| stanton wrote: |
@PaulC1984,
Dont you think they shoud not be.
Their livelyhoods are being ruined. |
Maybe in the short term, but business comes and goes. The economic winds are constantly changing. If it's not Brexit then it's oil prices or some such.
To respond the the thread title, yes, some things might be more expensive next year but not by much. More likely the year after if a few companies go bust, especially in the British owned French chalet businesses.
Clearly it's slightly more expensive in Austria, Italy and Switzerland due to forex movements. However, I remember going away in 2007/8 and it was almost parity then due to the relative cycles of the Euro and £ economies.
Will it get worse than parity? Who knows? Until Brexit is sorted one way or another the current movements are just traders (and mainly quants) speculating due to imperfect knowledge.
To answer the 'non' thread title re whether Brexit is a good thing; who knows. None of the MPs, press or general population nor the Eurozone really understand it fully. I'm getting somewhat bored of Remainers arguing that they are some enlightened elite and that being in Europe is somr nirvana. Likewise, i dislike the Brexiter belief that leaving Europe will somehow remove the shackles that have held us back for years. For me it's a self determination view in that we need to decide whether we are part of the Greater Europe project and I do think that most of the UK don't want to be.
Unfortunately the referendum was voted on, as always, selfish views on all sides (wages, cost of living, ski holiday costs?!)
My guess is that both sides will posture until the 2 years is up and then a deal will be done, probably with a 2 year transition.
All of which won't do much and can hardy make worse as the current rate has baked in hard Brexit imo.
Either way, none of this is any worse than it was 10 years ago so hey ho. Anyone just has to make 3 choices:
- go to cheaper hotel/resort for same £ price
- pay more than last year for same hotel
- don't go.
Build a bridge and get over it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Badbobby wrote: |
| stanton wrote: |
@PaulC1984,
Dont you think they shoud not be.
Their livelyhoods are being ruined. |
Maybe in the short term, but business comes and goes. The economic winds are constantly changing. If it's not Brexit then it's oil prices or some such.
To respond the the thread title, yes, some things might be more expensive next year but not by much. More likely the year after if a few companies go bust, especially in the British owned French chalet businesses.
Clearly it's slightly more expensive in Austria, Italy and Switzerland due to forex movements. However, I remember going away in 2007/8 and it was almost parity then due to the relative cycles of the Euro and £ economies.
Will it get worse than parity? Who knows? Until Brexit is sorted one way or another the current movements are just traders (and mainly quants) speculating due to imperfect knowledge.
To answer the 'non' thread title re whether Brexit is a good thing; who knows. None of the MPs, press or general population nor the Eurozone really understand it fully. I'm getting somewhat bored of Remainers arguing that they are some enlightened elite and that being in Europe is somr nirvana. Likewise, i dislike the Brexiter belief that leaving Europe will somehow remove the shackles that have held us back for years. For me it's a self determination view in that we need to decide whether we are part of the Greater Europe project and I do think that most of the UK don't want to be.
Unfortunately the referendum was voted on, as always, selfish views on all sides (wages, cost of living, ski holiday costs?!)
My guess is that both sides will posture until the 2 years is up and then a deal will be done, probably with a 2 year transition.
All of which won't do much and can hardy make worse as the current rate has baked in hard Brexit imo.
Either way, none of this is any worse than it was 10 years ago so hey ho. Anyone just has to make 3 choices:
- go to cheaper hotel/resort for same £ price
- pay more than last year for same hotel
- don't go.
Build a bridge and get over it. |
Bingo. Couldn't agree more
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
| stanton wrote: |
@PaulC1984,
Dont you think they shoud not be.
Their livelyhoods are being ruined. |
I have sympathy with the individuals but not the EU.
Now of course there are 2 sides in this, but if Barnier and the EU genuinely had each of the remaining 27 states interests in mind rather than the institution itself the story could be very different.
Wouldn't it be a breath of fresh air to get together, make tangible press conferences, statements etc rather than the silly comments both sides currently make.
When it boils down to it it's people's lives that are being effected. As I've said before, movement of people is good, curent EU migrants (and non EU) should absolutely be afforded the same rights as Brits.
The problem is the whole situation is politically and financially motivated on both sides and when that happens business and individuals are forgotten, left to pick up the pieces.
This was the EU's big chance to show they can be flexible (to a degree, I'm not naive enough to expect everyone to bend over) but alas all they want to do is 'teach' the Britain a lesson. If the EU knew it's people well, they would know we don't take kindly to threats 
Sorry off topic
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
@PaulC1984, in their defence the EU has to try and show that it can't just allow any member states to pick and choose the bits they want.
Likewise, the U.K. has to show that it would rather want Hard Brexit than a poor deal.
No doubt another 12months of posturing and, like in the real world, a deal will get struck once the deadline catches up with everyone.
Or not... who knows!
Either way all parties will have to move on and I doubt it will be a disaster either way. Humans are adaptable creatures.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
| Badbobby wrote: |
No doubt another 12months of posturing and, like in the real world, a deal will get struck once the deadline catches up with everyone.
Or not... who knows!
|
I worry that we're in for years of this. Almost every issue, no matter how small, will have sticking points. We will go 3 steps forward, then 2 back....and when we get down to the real nub of the matter, I wouldn't be surprised if various EU members leverage any advantage, to sort out old grudges.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
@PaulC1984, To a large degree, things can be as simple, or as complicated as people want to make them. Politics has a way of doing the latter.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
If we look at the spot rate for the pound to euro from 1999 to now you see that the rate was above 1.4 until the end of 2007 when it started to fall to around 1.25 until the end of 2008 when in December it fell to 1.02. It recovered a bit by the summer to around 1.18 and slumped again to about 1.09 in the Autumn. It seems to have fluctuated between 1.1 and 1.3 until 2015 when it climbed to the dizzy height of 1.4 across the summer. Since then it declined steadily until last October when it reached a low of 1.1 and has since hovered between 1.1 and 1.2 until june of this year when it started it's current decline to just under 1.1.
So this year and last year don't really look a lot different, maybe a few percent but a close look at last season shows the rate varied between 1.14 in Jan and March and 1.18 in Feb. So depending on when you pay/draw cash, the exchange rate might vary by up to 4% across the season. I currently see no reason to think that this coming season's in resort spend will vary by more than 5% plus whatever inflation rate has been applied. Of course if some forecasts are correct then that could be between 15% and 20% but who knows, certainly not the bankers LOL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
I see there has been a bounce - things looking up for ready for the ski season?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
Only because of intervention by The Bank of England
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poor @stanton, I'm sure you'll hide your disappointment well.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| stanton wrote: |
| Only because of intervention by The Bank of England |
Oh the irony, have you heard of the ECB?
On a more serious note, yet another economic forecast wrong.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| stanton wrote: |
| Only because of intervention by The Bank of England |
Er yes the BOE have, just like the ECB did recently to lift the Euro....
That's what they are there to do!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
There has been no intervention at all. Nothing has changed. The market is just trying desperately to make money on money, when money is not working! The BOE is giving guidance, which historically has been not followed through in all the time of forward guidance.
For me the most worrying sign which make me believe the BOE this time, is the UK Government caving in on public sector wages. This is the single most likely factor which will result in rate rises. A strengthing pound and consequential falling inflation due to cheaper imports, is likely to postpone any rate rises.
The long term average for £/$ is 1.6. Keep this in mind, as North Korea tests some more missiles over Japan.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
