 Poster: A snowHead
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I hope like many of the forecasts we've seen this year this doom laden thread is way off the mark.
I do hope so.
I'm hoping for a Trump/Brexit effect where we all drown in powder from 17th Dec onwards.
(You'd think I had flights booked etc.. : 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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18z GFS has made the 20th Dec event into another Austria dusting.
At the end of the run, there's a slight hint of the possibility of snow on Christmas Day. Long term caution of course and probably expect downgrades.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| WellingtonBoot wrote: |
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Downgrades is the story of this December IMHO
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@Jellybeans1000, I think it often feels like downgrades are the story. Particularly when we're desperate, we kind of overlook the initial upgrade when something good pops up on the charts for the first time, and only remember when it's inevitably snatched away later (at least one run will do this)...
Anyway, earlier in December and at the end of November, for quite a while the charts were showing almost nothing of interest, so there wasn't really that much to downgrade, even if it was indeed pretty dismal.
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ie nobody really knows, but looking for patterns and repeat ability is all that can be done.
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@kitenski, yep. And with that in mind, I don't mind the current trend, particularly for the northern Alps. Details are obviously entirely unclear at this point, and due to very high variability between models and runs at the moment, it is difficult to predict anything confidently, BUT in many of the various outcomes being forecast, I'd argue there does appear to be a positive broader trend for the European high to shift West.
Ultimately what we really need is for that big high pressure to gloop off back into the ocean and let some Atlantic (or Arctic...) weather in over the top, and let's just say that the chances of that happening 10-14 days from now are higher today than they were 10-14 days from a week ago, if you see what I mean.
I've been monitoring some of the longer term models and looking into some of the more abstruse drivers of our weather, including teleconnections, MJO, GWO, QBO, stratospheric conditions, etc., but I can't add much of value at this point because a) I'm not sure anyone here would appreciate my ramblings, b) my mastery of these topics is well short of what it needs to be to declaim on it here authoritatively and c) the picture is a bit of a mess at the moment. More accomplished forecasters with a much deeper understanding of these factors than I possess are struggling to use this information constructively for forecasts beyond the next week at the moment. A lot of contradictions / competing forces / mixed signals.
So I'll stick to talking up the chance of pre-Christmas snow and 'creating hysteria'... |
Do you monitor any other long term forecasts other than CFS and EC? MJO has a poorly documented, small importance in Europe. The only teleconnections that matter is the NAO, AO and ENSO. The polar vortex is also important.
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Fri 9-12-16 7:30; edited 1 time in total
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| Quote: |
Do you monitor any other long term forecasts other than CFS and EC? MJO has a poorly documented, small importance in Europe. The only teleconnections that matter is the NAO, AO and ENSO. The polar vortex is also important.
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@Jellybeans1000, I'm not sure I can agree with that. All of these factors are linked, if some more closely than others, and there is good research to show that the MJO can affect/correlates with conditions over Europe and the Atlantic. I'm not going to try to go into it here, partly because I'm not really qualified to, but there are others whom I trust and who have a greater understanding of these issues, who value these indicators and use them constructively in longer term forecasts.
I think it just depends on how far 'upstream' you want to look. You mention the importance of the polar vortex, which is right, but of course the vortex is influenced by the temperature of the stratosphere in the first place. And that's not where it ends because the troposphere affects the stratosphere before that with Rossby waves and the rest of it... The point being, I think it's all relevant and connected. The challenge is the small matter of understanding it...
Nonetheless I agree that the MJO probably isn't going to be the key indicator of whether there will be snow before Christmas...
And I agree about the importance of the NAO and the AO (ENSO generally less important), even if recent events have shown us once again that these indices on their own are of limited use.
Regarding long-term forecasts, I actually don't monitor any very closely. My interest generally extends to what I've alluded to above, so that means the next 6 weeks at the most, where current data can be reasonably tied to broader scale expected future trends. Within that, and at a time like right now, when I'm going away in 2 weeks, I'm pretty focused on NWP models and trying to pick trends....
I noticed you've been pretty negative today about prospects of snow and was reminded that you have no dog in this fight - was wondering if these are sincerely negative expectations, or just pessimism, or maybe if you're just enjoying trolling us all a bit from your sunny perch in Australia... 
In any case, I don't share your level of pessimism yet. Today's runs aren't really any more reliable than yesterday's, and there have still been some indications of good trends. Earlier runs were decent and the ECM 12z control run is great, with most of the Alps getting repeatedly dumped on for a week after the 16th. While I'm not totally buying that evolution, it is just another indicator that things are still very much up in the air for that period.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@WellingtonBoot
That's what happens when I say it the wrong way...
Sorry, while MJO itself has not much effect on the Alps except if a system comes from the Mediterranean and has tropical inflow, it has a very large effect on the NAO which in turn effects the Alps. I consider myself a climatologist, so are interested in these long term patterns, more than anything else. I was more talking about long term forecast in the sense that it was 1-6 weeks ahead. I usually call any forecasts past that, as seasonal prediction forecasts. Agree with you on NAO, AO and ENSO and the fact these need to used together. The use of all the climate indexes, teleconnections, etc will definitely result in better long term forecasts.
Onto the second part of your text, sorry I try not to be negative when I can, but the hope is just so low  I try to look for good systems on the long term like the Christmas Day on 18z GFS run. No dog in this fight? I know lots of people who ask me for conditions updates on Europe's snow, but I just like to provide information and forecasts to people who want my insight. I like having the "wisdom of the crowd", rather than one forecaster, so here I am. My negativity is based on the overall climate, rather than a couple of GFS runs. No sunny perch in Australia, it actually snowed today in the hills today. Taking a look at the fresh EC long term data now.
May the snow be with you 
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Sorry @nozawaonsen, I will stop quoting posts.
This is the only weather thread on this site, I would suggest a general weather thread on climate drivers, off season, etc., but that isn't up to me.
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Worth saying 00z ECM is not sold on that mid month cold spell yet...
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Despite very warm daytime temperatures, a strong inversion is helping low austrian resorts such as Zell, make snow down to 750m in the village. -4C in the village (-1c at the location across the lake above Thumersbach) at 9AM this morning whilst being +ve temperatures at the top of the mountain.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Seconded.
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I've got no issue with people posting other weather related information, especially at times like these when very little is actually happening. It's a welcome tangent and I certainly learn something. Just try not to quote six paragraphs of text.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The chances of charts over 15 days out looking remotely like that is pretty close to zero. It's just too far out.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| The chances of charts over 15 days out looking remotely like that is pretty close to zero. It's just too far out. |
It might be inaccurate, but it gives hope and dates to watch out for.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Seconded
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Thirded (sic)
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I'm afraid I agree with Noza, I'd rather have a conservative but likely picture than talk up the prospects every low pressure heading over the Atlantic for the next two weeks.
If a consistent and strong signal emerges at reasonable range then maybe that's different
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In my limited experience snap shot charts beyond 7-10 days are just too random. FI is only useful if a persistent trend is spotted, as opposed to picking out individual data points (pictures).
In fact the more I learn, the more I shorten the focus. Look at next thurs, 6-7 days out and all the models paint a different picture. Even if the main theme is dominant high pressure, each run from each model has the pressure areas taking different paths. Then try adding in precipitation, wind direction etc.....
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In my flying days looking at anything more than three days out was deemed a waste of time. If my life depended on it 24 hrs would have been the limit. I know skiing is slightly less critical but rather than looking at projections that lie days/weeks ahead you would be better off just dreaming of those perfect conditions and keeping your fingers crossed
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If I had a month or two I'd go with the accuracy is good thing but we're running out of hope here. Desperate wildly unlikely finger in the air predictions are all we've got left.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@nozawaonsen, +1
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I'm interested in hearing the discussion & commentary of what the charts are revealing in FI, as long as we all realise they are only possibilities and not forecasts until confirmed by repeatedly consistent similar runs.
Now some questions for the mix about this persistent High Pressure field over W Europe...
When it does shift, what are the possibilities?
Does it shift West to the Azores, slip N/NE into Scandinavia or Russia, slip SE into E Med? Is that irrelevant to the possibility of snowfall in the Alps?
What kind of timespan would be typical between spotting the shift on the charts and it actually shifting?
Could it suddenly shift with 48-72hrs notice or would it always be spotted a week or more out and then build confidence of the move with repeated runs?
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Fri 9-12-16 12:12; edited 2 times in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Sorry I disagree. And quite strongly. It's simply misleading. |
I wouldn't say it's completely inaccurate. EC Monthly Control has about a 40% accuracy between 10-20 days. That's includes details, so it gives you an basic picture of what might happen. It might change, but that's long range forecasting for you. Staying conservative might do you better in the short term, but longer term forecasts require more skill to make as accurate as possible (which might only be 50%). Some people want the data, so I am only happy to provide, but others like yourself don't like it. That's cool with me, but don't say it every time I post something long term.
I'm not misleading people at all. I suspect most people here know how hard long term forecasting is to be accurate, and even if they don't, I say 'wait for a few more runs'
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Sorry I disagree. And quite strongly. It's simply misleading. |
EC Monthly Control has about a 40% accuracy between 10-20 days.' |
So, at 40% accuracy, it would be fair to say that the 10-20 day prediction is more likely not to happen than to happen.........
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@luigi, the problem with that first question is for the foreseeable future, the High doesn't move away, it actually gets stronger towards 1040hPa for MSLP. Many changes in highs are foreseeable a week or more out, but many also shift with only 24-48hrs notice. Looking at current climate conditions, I can't see this high going out before the 20th at least.
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You know it makes sense.
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| JoyZipper wrote: |
So, at 40% accuracy, it would be fair to say that the 10-20 day prediction is more likely not to happen than to happen......... |
That includes the all details that irrelevant to mapping out a low. So it's more like 50% or even 60%
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| The chances of charts over 15 days out looking remotely like that is pretty close to zero. It's just too far out. |
It might be inaccurate, but it gives hope and dates to watch out for. |
With respect, if you contribute to these weather threads for as long as nozawaonsen you'll soon find that those sort of hopeful/inaccurate 'forecasts' just lead to a bunch of people complaining about how forecasts are useless/always wrong, always way too positive about amount of snow, upgrades/downgrades are always one way and never underforecast amounts of snow etc etc
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Poster: A snowHead
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I never claim anything is going to happen, it is always a possibility really until several hours out when you can look at the radar ahead.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Jellybeans1000, I know, and nozawaonsen has always emphasised things are only possibilities in the past too, but despite that and the repeated caveats it seems a fact of life that some get too attached to anything positive and then get really pissed when it doesn't come about.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@clarky999, Just read the latest Fall Line issue, liked your interview with Tobi Tritscher interesting stuff!
@Jellybeans1000, as @clarky999, says sometimes, though you are being undoubtedly helpful and giving us great info, in the long run you'll be on a hiding to nothing and will be on the end of some criticism if predicted snowfall doesn't arrive etc...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
I wouldn't say it's completely inaccurate. EC Monthly Control has about a 40% accuracy between 10-20 days.' |
I can predict a coin toss with 50% accuracy.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@AthersT I have always stirred controversy with my forecasting, nothing unusual from my end.
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I think we should forget the forecasts and get proactive. Butterfly effect time, I wander if all the snowheads around the world jumped up and down for 5 minutes at a pre-arranged defined time, sort of a snow dance, we might harness the powers of chaos and cause a super dump in the alps.
Right now I think that might be more constructive than a 14 day ahead weather forecast  At the very least it will keep us warm.
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| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
| @AthersT I have always stirred controversy with my forecasting, nothing unusual from my end. |
I would have thought the most controversial forecasters are the ones who are always wrong?! I not sure that's something I'd be bragging about...
For what it's worth, I think noza strikes the right balance on here - keep up the good work
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I quite like Jellybeans FI forecasts, at least it gives us something to talk about.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I am being very thick...what does FI stand for in this context?
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Fantasy Island
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FAQ
