in all seriousness, why are folk surprised by low snow Decembers? It's a 5 month season if you assume Dec->April so of course you can expect low snow in December. The only reason Dec is "peak" is for people prepared to pay to be on holiday over Christmas and New Year, it's certainly not peak from a snow POV.
You do realise that people don't pay just to show off. I'd guess the majority on here have kids and therefore have to fit in with school holidays whichever countries we live in.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Always knew Xmas week would be a risk, but still looks better than Easter 2011 and there is skiing, but with Feb half-team being stupid money, Easter being late and boys taking GCSEs it's only choice this season.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Its the same every year. High expectations of good skiing for Christmas. Collapsing interest in March and April when conditions are often at their best.
Presumably it's to do with school holidays and media perceptions of 'snowy christmas'
I really wouldn't be getting depressed just yet. There's a long way to go in weather terms in the mountains until Christmas.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Boris wrote:
Always knew Xmas week would be a risk, but still looks better than Easter 2011 and there is skiing, but with Feb half-team being stupid money, Easter being late and boys taking GCSEs it's only choice this season.
We're in the same position. We'd much prefer a risky Christmas trip and a potentially warm/slushy Easter than just a half term trip - we get two trips for the price of one. Although likewise we have GCSEs to prepare for and with Easter being much later I'm not sure what we'll do.
Nothing at this stage to suggest anything other than a continuation of generally mild and dry conditions. Keep the faith.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
jonathancarty wrote:
Going back to the new moon thing there is really good evidence that all major weather events tend to occur within 14 days of a new moon.
Very good I further contend that most major blizzards occur within 3.5 days of a Thursday Between us, I reckon we've cracked winter weather forecasting.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Very cold 00z GFS op run from mid month in the Alps. Bit of an outlier so would anticipate it being adjusted, but coldest run in some time.
Chamonix.
Zermatt.
Arlberg.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
00Z offers some hope for the first time in a while
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
As the live ensemble above shows the 00Z has now switched to well below average from the 12th to the end of the run. Whilst this is mostly an outlier, temperatures on nearly all ensembles are trending below average. Lets hope this is repeated!
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Regarding the Moon.
Firstly, I would normally never dismiss local weather lore. There is now lots of scientific evidence to back up the efficacy of 'red sky at night' etc. But the one about the new moon does not have any basis in science, other than (as Dav said) it will be a long time before the weather changes and the new moon is a long way away. "It will be another 3 Thursdays" would be equally as valid and equally unscientific.
When I used to spend log nights in a bunker I often used to sit and chat with the RAF's senior forecaster about weather and things. None of the forecasting models include the phase of the moon. He said the only time he might consider the moon, albeit indirectly, would be its effects on the tides which might have an effect on the amount of fog/mist that might appear on an airfield close to a large estuary with a significant difference in water levels between high and low tide - but even this was a bit tenuous.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looking colder on 12/13 December. Some snow with it...
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
11th looks like the next possibility of something falling from the ski in the Tarentaise............hopefully that will herald a breakdown and be the first of several lows to push through before the 29th.........from a purely personal and selfish POV
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
sky even
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Although there are some suggestions (not much more) of snow in the eastern Alps on the 00z GFS the overall outlook remains dry.
Weather changing with the moon is not, other than moon changes being often reasonably distant and established stable pressure system breaks likewise, as you mention.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
downhillalltheway wrote:
kitenski wrote:
in all seriousness, why are folk surprised by low snow Decembers? It's a 5 month season if you assume Dec->April so of course you can expect low snow in December. The only reason Dec is "peak" is for people prepared to pay to be on holiday over Christmas and New Year, it's certainly not peak from a snow POV.
You do realise that people don't pay just to show off. I'd guess the majority on here have kids and therefore have to fit in with school holidays whichever countries we live in.
Please point out where I said anything about "showing off"?? Just trying to point out the fact Christmas is always at the start of the ski season, will always have a greater risk of variable snow. Sometimes it will be great, sometimes average, sometimes poor. There is nothing any of us can do about that.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Just as a comparison, this is Chamrousse X country ski area last year on the 3rd of December 2015 (this is at 1600m)
Peter S
snowHead
Posts: 2453
Location: At the end of the B6277 ski road
Its the same every year. High expectations of good skiing for Christmas. Collapsing interest in March and April when conditions are often at their best.
Presumably it's to do with school holidays and media perceptions of 'snowy christmas
It is almost a bit of a well kept secret, a taboo or just a lack of interest as spring and summer holidays start to take the interest but I can't understand why more people don't go skiing in Easter. I have now done it 3 years running and the conditions have been fantastic, we have had fresh snow every time so powder everywhere (OK no guarantee), but the piste is in brilliant condition, the sun is shining, the kids and wife are happy because they are not cold and there are no queues. I honestly can't see me going any other time in the near future. I always do a 4 day lads trip in January and avoid the queues then too but half term is just mental money and also so damn busy its not fun anyway. Give me April and the last week of the season any day.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Picture very mixed across the world right now.
Some doing good (Andorra, Spain, Norway, Western US / Canada).
EC is currently progging 5-10cm for the Swiss, Italian and Austrian parts of the Alps. This is the 00Z run for the 12/13 December.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
The 06z has snowfall in the eastern Alps on 11/12 December and again Wednesday into Thursday (14/15).
Temperatures not as cold as in the GFS 00z run (and to that extent closer to ECM). Slightly below average in the east, slightly above in the west.
Overall still a relatively dry pattern for the time of year as is clearly shown in the third frame of the chart I posted above.
After all it is free
After all it is free
French Northern Alps
Average height of ski resort lower slopes: 1234 meters
Average height of ski resorts from top to bottom: 1741 meters
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
'relatively dry' is putting it very politely. The trees are whistling for the dogs.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Well the good news last night was that I saw the 12z ECM charts out to the 20th, and as well as a decent little fall around the 11th/12th, it showed a total breakdown of the block by the 20th, with a proper snowmaggedon scenario on the 20th. Massive low pressure blasting into Europe, the entire Alps absolutely pasted with snow. Best charts I've seen in a while.
Also good news (at least for me) to see increasing consistency with the forecast for some decent snow for Western Austria/Eastern Switz on the 12th.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
davidof wrote:
French Northern Alps
Average height of ski resort lower slopes: 1234 meters
Average height of ski resorts from top to bottom: 1741 meters
1741 is the average vertical? Really?
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
WellingtonBoot wrote:
Well the good news last night was that I saw the 12z ECM charts out to the 20th, and as well as a decent little fall around the 11th/12th, it showed a total breakdown of the block by the 20th, with a proper snowmaggedon scenario on the 20th. Massive low pressure blasting into Europe, the entire Alps absolutely pasted with snow. Best charts I've seen in a while.
Also good news (at least for me) to see increasing consistency with the forecast for some decent snow for Western Austria/Eastern Switz on the 12th.
I'm going to choose to believe this.
I depart on the 24th December for Flaine.
No pressure whatsoever mate...
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Some light smattering of precipitation here in Ireland today, and a little more due tomorrow, hopefully these small anticyclones will migrate south west over ze Alps!!
Be generous ye snow Gods
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@mikeycharlton, Let me immediately disclaim...
- Only one operational run (from any model) has shown that golden scenario recently.
- The most recent ECM, while not totally unpromising at the end (around 20th), doesn't yet have snowfall at that time.
- The shortwave around the 12th is currently projected to affect areas further East and largely to pass the Flaine region by.
And now to disclaim my disclaimer...
- There is still time for the system on the 12th to change track and affect different areas, and/or to upgrade/downgrade.
- Beyond the next 7-10 days, there is actually a decent amount of uncertainty for the first time in a while, so nothing is confirmed.
Also to add some bad news: The next 4 days are likely to be warm, and much snow will be destroyed across the Alps...
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
wellington....you ll have 90% of this thread hanging by one for that scenario.
FWIW......I think .....and hope you are proven right
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The last 2 seasons it hasn't snowed until I've got to the alps, so going off that highly scientific reasoning, the snow will arrive around the 30th December.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Little Martin, Move your trip forward a week please.
12z GFS has reduced the 12th December fall to almost nothing... Roll on 18z.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
mikeycharlton wrote:
davidof wrote:
French Northern Alps
Average height of ski resort lower slopes: 1234 meters
Average height of ski resorts from top to bottom: 1741 meters
1741 is the average vertical? Really?
are you thinking that's too high, or too low?
The problem with the Alps is they are just too far south, it would be better if they were around the level of Belgium or Holland - maybe with a few little mountains, say something like the Bauges in Kent but keeping the channel.
That way we'd be skiing every Christmas, and it would wee wee off the ESF who would be a piddling ski school based in the Pyrenees and having to drive 1200km to get to the real mountains.
12z GFS does take things cooler around 11/12 December out east and has a few snow showers in the eastern Alps, but then warms up again in FI. Certainly not building on the very cold 00z run this morning and in fact rebuilds the high pressure block across Europe. Then again that's all in FI.
Page 20. So time to repost this.
I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.
Computer models are good at giving you an idea of what the forecast is likely to be three to five days out (which is actually pretty amazing given the chaotic nature of weather). That said they can still be caught by surprise and accurately predicting precipitation in particular is very difficult. Although sometimes people ask what "locals" think the weather will be like, most (farmers, police, guides) will use the same sort of forecasting tools every else does. Locals don't have a sixth sense that can allow them to know what the weather will be like that others don't have. What they do have built on hard experience is a much better feel for how the weather will affect the local area and how that will change the conditions.
Here's something I scribbled down on forecasting at the end of the 2011 season. I think it still makes broad sense now.
nozawaonsen wrote:
"Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.
- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.
- Don't take it that seriously."
To which I'd add that beyond seven days you can't really talk about a forecast, what you have is a range of probabilities, as shown by the different coloured ensembles, which is almost always simply too great a spread to really call a forecast. You can't really make sense of these as a single snapshot. So you need to see how they evolve from run to run to give you a sense of whether certain options are looking more or less likley.
And to repeat forecasting accurate precipitation is very difficult (so be wary of any forecast that appears to say you will get 23.5cm of snow next Friday). Measuring how much has fallen afterwards is almost as difficult if not more so (so be wary of any snow report which claims 23.5cm of snow fell last Friday).
And finally for anyone wanting facts about the future. There aren't any there are only forecasts (and sensible ones tend to have caveats).
French Northern Alps
Average height of ski resort lower slopes: 1234 meters
Average height of ski resorts from top to bottom: 1741 meters
1741 is the average vertical? Really?
are you thinking that's too high, or too low?
The problem with the Alps is they are just too far south, it would be better if they were around the level of Belgium or Holland - maybe with a few little mountains, say something like the Bauges in Kent but keeping the channel.
That way we'd be skiing every Christmas, and it would wee wee off the ESF who would be a piddling ski school based in the Pyrenees and having to drive 1200km to get to the real mountains.
I was thinking that 1741m is very high for an average.
Is that bottom of lowest lift to top of highest lift?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
mikeycharlton wrote:
I was thinking that 1741m is very high for an average.
Is that bottom of lowest lift to top of highest lift?
Yes.
On area or hectares of ski runs it is probably lower as mountains are usually pointy.
It is not very scientific but gives the idea that lack of snow below 2100m (as at the start of this season) is significant.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Quote:
I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.
@nozawaonsen, An important message, that. Just want to acknowledge that I do understand all of that, since I'm clogging up these pages with my reports and musings.
I would say that the reliability of forecasts beyond 7 days can also vary significantly. In the last couple of weeks, for instance, I would suggest reliability was unusually high (for certain locations of interest to folks on here). This was evident in part due to the initial synoptics - certain setups being generally more stable - and partly by reasonable deduction, given the unusual consistency in the longer term forecasts.
Sometimes, such forecasts can (on the face of it at least) be almost worthless, since the synoptics are so dynamic that even a week out there is little forecasting consistency.
Right now, while there is more uncertainty than there was recently, I would suggest that I can still say more about what is likely to be happening on the 16th December than would usually be the case. While certain model runs are coming up with alternative solutions, European blocking is still a fairly consistent theme (and from experience, such setups are difficult to shift, and once breakdowns start appearing in the charts, they tend to cycle on and off and get pushed back at least a few days before they actually occur).
And just to indulge in a moment of pedantry, you said, "Measuring how much has fallen afterwards is almost as difficult if not more so" - logically it's impossible for it to be more difficult, given that the only way of verifying forecasts made before a fall involves measuring the fall afterwards...
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
davidof wrote:
mikeycharlton wrote:
I was thinking that 1741m is very high for an average.
Is that bottom of lowest lift to top of highest lift?
Yes.
On area or hectares of ski runs it is probably lower as mountains are usually pointy.
It is not very scientific but gives the idea that lack of snow below 2100m (as at the start of this season) is significant.
Seems possible here is an unscientific list of resorts.
And just to indulge in a moment of pedantry, you said, "Measuring how much has fallen afterwards is almost as difficult if not more so" - logically it's impossible for it to be more difficult, given that the only way of verifying forecasts made before a fall involves measuring the fall afterwards...
That's not actually necessarily true. It is possible that something is so difficult to measure that predictions are better estimates of how much fell than the imperfect measurements you can take afterwards. That we judge the accuracy of forecasts by their distance from the measured snowfall afterwards, doesn't necessarily mean the measurement is a better reflection of the actual amount that fell. As an extreme example imagine someone were to invent a technique to perfectly predict snowfall, yet we had very poor ways of measuring how much actually fell. Most people would believe the measurements and argue the predictions, while likely much better than other techniques, were not perfect. Hence it's logically possible for it to be more difficult to measure afterwards than predict beforehand.
This is also just me indulging in some pedantry to distract me from work, I assume Nozawa was just making the point that both are flawed and that it's probably somewhat easier to measure how much has fallen than to predict it beforehand (subject to the usual caveats about where to measure and the incentives for ski resorts to measure wherever the snow's likely to be deepest). But I try to never miss an opportunity to be a pedant...
Just to add a thanks to Noza and everyone who contributes here. Every year it's a wonderful thread to read, get psyched about the season to come, and (nearer the time) get an idea of the kind of weather we're likely to see when we get there.
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Tue 6-12-16 20:42; edited 1 time in total
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
I further contend that most major blizzards occur within 3.5 days of a Thursday 
Between us, I reckon we've cracked winter weather forecasting.
