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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
emwmarine wrote:


Clearly people have a natural positive or negative bias and @Rob Mackley's strong assertion that the foehn would destroy the snow so far and that there wouldn't be any snow this week seems to have been wide of the mark.


In much of the Alps the föhn has destroyed the snow, and in much of the Alps there hasn't been any snow this week. Didn't he also specifically say the föhn will hurt snow in the valleys?
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Seems like Corsica has also received plenty of precipitation!

Nearly 10x average flow for this time of year

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Looks like a big avalanche right down the Trolles piste in Le Lag on the webcam now[/img]
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@daveogg, yup, that's a big one!
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Avalanches also in the hills above Keswick!





Keswick Mountain Rescue have also been busy: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1424831077534927&id=980955948589111

Quote:
Incident No: 92
Date: 23rd November 2016
Time: 15:14
Location: Skiddaw, Howgill Tongue
Incident Details: The Team were alerted by the Police to a group of three young people who had strayed off a path on Skiddaw, and managed to get themselves “completely lost” trying to descend direct towards Keswick. They were cold, one of them had an asthma problem, and they had very little in the way of useful kit with them, as well as a large husky to manage! Team members had noted during the day that there had been avalanches on the west facing slopes of Skiddaw…..So where, would you imagine, that you don’t want folk to be ? Sure enough, when the duty leader had talked to them, and we managed to get a SARLOC fix on where they were, they were within the area that had already avalanched, and still had potential for more. 12 Team members and 3 search dogs set off swiftly for the area above Applethwaite, ensuring that all the party had avalanche transceivers.

Fortunately, the group turned out to be in part of the area that was swept clear of snow, though they were still below a large loose slope, and were visible to the leading group from quite a distance. The second group stood by below while the group were given warm clothing, food, and a set of spikes to assist them in walking down. Once they got moving, the casualties warmed up fairly quickly, and the Team managed to get them off the hill in about an hour. It has to be said that youthful enthusiasm and inexperience, and brilliant weather, had much to do with being in the wrong place, with the wrong clothing and footwear. Advice was, as they say, offered!

16 Team members – 2 hours 16 minutes

Postscript: Overnight, this area has avalanched again, with approximately four times the area of the original avalanches. Large amounts of debris have slid down the gully, to well below the area of the rescue. Lucky they were recovered last night!
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@emwmarine,

The original comment was i doubt there would be much precipitation in the tarentaise next week as there is a foehn wind , this is usual , and the the snow in the valleys will take a battering .

The outcome is that it didn't Rain or snow very much in the Tarentaise TILL the Foehn stopped blowing on Thursday and the valleys did take a battering from the Foehn , I wasn't compleatey right and i'm very sorry .

By the way I think Val T's a dump . wink
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It might not be the prettiest place in the Alps, or even anywhere else, but at least it's got snow. Very Happy Which is probably what you want in a ski resort.
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VT is a horrible looking place, but great for skiing from and to, which surely is the main point of a skiing holiday? Toofy Grin
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@daveogg, I face the other way but there has been a lot of blasting this morning, I am pretty sure this one has been triggered by the 2 Gazex's at the 2 points of origin.
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I liked Piemonster's post, once i had looked up what Pragmatic means:
"dealing with things sensibly and realistically in a way that is based on practical rather than theoretical considerations"
Quite so.
Pictures show is what is. Optimists and pessimists just differ on what is to be.

And at this time of the year, before the lifts open, the best way to get a practical view of what resorts look like is to view the webcams.
Those "on the ground" can see no more.
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Interesting observations from wePowder: http://wepowder.com/forum/topic/233440

As well as lots of snow in the south:

Quote:
The precipitation came down as snow above 2300 meters, but it rained below that altitude. And so much water came down. Rivers flooded and locally the infrastructure was destroyed. Check it out on Twitter using the hashtag #allertameteoPIE.

450 mm of rain in just 36 hours This was the highest amount of precipitation that I found. It was measured on the Colle del Vaccera. 450 mm of rain was measured at 1450 meter altitue in just 36 hours. Just imagine it was a bit colder. It might have brought 450 cm of snow.


Link for the twitter hashtag feed: https://twitter.com/search?q=%23allertameteoPIE&src=tyah



Some big avalanches running well down into the valleys too:

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Another one from Bardonecchia, happy shoveling before opening up this weekend
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Alagna IT
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ewmarine......well looking at the Ste Foy webcams, rob Mackley was very much correct........this time last week it was a winter wonderland.......now its a sodden green meadow at resort level at 1550m.....and 1800m, top of the first lift, there is very little left of what was.............between 2100m and the top its probably very good. but anyway it doesn t open for another 3 weeks odd.....so pray the white stuff returns.

crazy that probably not more than 6-10 miles as the crow flies that Bardonnechia etc have been blitzed
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@stefoy4me, Even Thiery Arnou (he of the highly respected avalanche bulletins from MF at Bourg) said yesterday that 'Le Retour D'est' is one of the trickiest things to forecast, you just never know how far over the mountains it will get.

It happened a couple of times last year, on one occasion there was a metre in Le Fornet, 80 cm in Val, 45 cm in Tignes and a few flocons in Les Arcs - those pernicious weather elves!!
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 Poster: A snowHead
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subtleplague on TGR (who I think did/does snow forecasts for one of the German sites, maybe Powderguide?) reckons:

Quote:
2,6m since Monday at the Italian/French Boarder in the high alpine. Not Freshies, but snow cover plus!!! --> meaning 3,x-4,x m of fresh came down there depending on settling. Or to be more sensational: 180cm Of snowcover came down in 36h meaning an AVERAGE!!! of 5cm per hour for 36h hours. With settling this needs at leat 6-7cm of fresh per hour for 36h, meaning it snowed about 220-270cm of fresh in 36h hours over there. that is an extremely rare event. I haven't seen such a thing yet and I've been snownerding around for a while.
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stefoy4me wrote:
ewmarine......well looking at the Ste Foy webcams, rob Mackley was very much correct........this time last week it was a winter wonderland.......now its a sodden green meadow at resort level at 1550m.....and 1800m, top of the first lift, there is very little left of what was.............between 2100m and the top its probably very good. but anyway it doesn t open for another 3 weeks odd.....so pray the white stuff returns.

crazy that probably not more than 6-10 miles as the crow flies that Bardonnechia etc have been blitzed


With a retour d'est the FL will be two or three hundred meters lower down on the Italian side of the Border compared to Ste Foy but I expect there is a lot of snow higher up at Ste Foy, as you say. This webcam photo from today at Bardonnechia (altitude 1600m). I would be more interested in what falls in the first fortnight of December at the moment.


image gratuite

kitenski> You appear to easily lose 60cm at 2000m with a foehn Alex!!

Do you remember that weekend you skied fantastic off piste early December at Val d'Isere and after you left a foehn blew in and left bare rocks everywhere? When was that, about 10 years ago?
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@davidof, that was 28/11/2003 looking at my diary and the same weekend I bought my still my current boots Smile
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Valfrejus has closed access to the whole ski area this weekend, this photo from the CCTV at 2200 meters altitude.

. Major avalanche control operation is starting on Saturday morning.

1 to 2 meters of snow above 2000/2200 meters altitude. The ski area is concerned about the place being invaded by ski tourers although you'd rapidly go from climbing on foot, to skis, to not even being able to climb at all.
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One Dutch ski tourer killed in an avalanche near Obergurgl, and two more (of a ten strong group) in critical condition in the hospital in Innsbruck with life threatening injuries Sad

They were in the Ferwalltall (basically right behind Obergurgl's Plattachbahn lift, on the south side by the Italian border), and apparently in the poor visibility strayed into steep terrain and released a slab which took several members of the group with it.

Info in German: http://tirol.orf.at/news/stories/2811280/

RIP
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The mild temperatures are now coming to an end. Average or below average (in the east) temperatures look like dominating in the east. However, with high pressure locked over the UK it looks dry. Should be sunny, but no snow.

ECM pressure anomaly.



Precipitation anomaly (based on GFS)

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Chamonix.



Zermatt.



Arlberg.

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15,000 people ignored davidof yesterday and seemed to have a good day at Val Thorens.
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Phew - cold - snow cannons!
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I suppose the pantomime season is upon us, so there must by a villain to hiss at.
This year it seems some have chosen davidof, though i am at a loss to know why.
But i think he's tough enough to cope . . . . snowHead
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Jonpim wrote:
I suppose the pantomime season is upon us, so there must by a villain to hiss at.
This year it seems some have chosen davidof, . snowHead


oh no he isn't
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Davidof earlier



Busy plotting villainy
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Mostly dry at the looks of things until past the 5th of December.
Except that EC prog for Zell am see, Orographic perhaps...
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@Jellybeans1000, First 2 GFS graphs are in Farenheit, and the next 2 ECM in Celcius? That's gonna confuse the hell out of us simple minded ski bums.

Am watching the 500mb anomalies 8-10 days for a breakdown of the high pressure. ECM regressed it out on 00z but GFS seems to strengthen the high.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
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langball wrote:
@Jellybeans1000, First 2 GFS graphs are in Farenheit, and the next 2 ECM in Celcius? That's gonna confuse the hell out of us simple minded ski bums.

Am watching the 500mb anomalies 8-10 days for a breakdown of the high pressure. ECM regressed it out on 00z but GFS seems to strengthen the high.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

That's the way it has to be, sorry. 32 degrees Fahrenheit = Blue line = 0 degrees Celsius. If it's below the blue line, it's snow.
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clarky999 wrote:
One Dutch ski tourer killed in an avalanche near Obergurgl, and two more (of a ten strong group) in critical condition in the hospital in Innsbruck with life threatening injuries Sad

They were in the Ferwalltall (basically right behind Obergurgl's Plattachbahn lift, on the south side by the Italian border), and apparently in the poor visibility strayed into steep terrain and released a slab which took several members of the group with it.

Info in German: http://tirol.orf.at/news/stories/2811280/

RIP


Pretty sure that's the skitour Kelskii, 2 mates and I did back in April 2014.

It's a long fairly flat valley that sharply steepens up to the peak (40 deg+) at the end of the valley.



http://www.bergfex.at/sommer/obergurgl-hochgurgl/touren/skitour/#/sommer/tirol/touren/skitour/87308,granatenkogel/
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@DB, definitely the same valley, I'm not sure which peak (if any) they were headed for. WePowder though they might have been in the couloirs almost directly off the back of the lifts, though as far as I'm aware that's just speculation at this stage. Should be more info on the LWD Tirol blog tomorrow.
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@clarky999,

They might have been heading for the Essenerspitze.
http://www.bergfex.at/sommer/tirol/touren/skitour/87308,granatenkogel/#/sommer/tirol/touren/skitour/87311,essenerspitze/

As you say more details will probably be released in the next few days.

It's a bowl at the end of a valley so it's not easy to ascend without being directly in the line of an avalanche should it occur.
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@DB, sounds like you were right and they were under Granatenkogel: http://lawinenwarndienst.blogspot.co.at

Sounds pretty horrific. On their way into the valley they dug a snow pit (presumably in poor visibility), decided to carry on up the valley,then shortly after head a large whumpf and were immediately caught in a big and very fast moving avalanche. From where the group (presumably) triggered the release, likely on an area of shallower snow, it propagated over 800m up.

An important thing to note is that was - already - an old snow problem avalanche. Faceted snow crystals from September surrounded by hard melt crusts above and below failed and released the slab. Anyone skiing high, steep and shady terrain in the southern valleys of Tirol (Stubaital, Ötztal, presumably Zillertal, etc) this season should this in mind as it's the sort of problem that could stick around a while.

EDIT: A British man was also involved, and died in Innsbruck hospital last night Sad
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Did anyone of them wear an avalanche backpack?
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Have seen some of the web cams, looking awesome!



Looking to the future...
8-9 Dec looking cold
So does 12-13 Dec.
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Some big fat flakes of snow falling to low altitudes in Oberösterreich right now according to my gf, but unlikely to last long.
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clarky999 wrote:
@DB, sounds like you were right and they were under Granatenkogel: http://lawinenwarndienst.blogspot.co.at

Sounds pretty horrific. On their way into the valley they dug a snow pit (presumably in poor visibility), decided to carry on up the valley,then shortly after head a large whumpf and were immediately caught in a big and very fast moving avalanche. From where the group (presumably) triggered the release, likely on an area of shallower snow, it propagated over 800m up.


We have similar topography in the North Belledonne and Ecrins - big shallow but steep sided valleys. Never somewhere to go in times of high avalanche risk in poor visibility due to the problem of remote triggering. One issue is that it is very hard to stay in any safe area (if such even exists) due to the visibility, it is very easy to stray off the valley floor onto steeper slopes or runout zones.

Snowpit at the entrance of the valley, when there is such a difference between the snow cover at various altitudes at the moment. Not sure how much that told them. Personally given the amount of snow in some areas at altitude at the moment I'd be very circumspect.

I note the researchers were surprised at how sensitive the weak layer was. In fact it might be more sensitive to triggering lower down due to less snow cover than high up where there is over a meter of depth. It is also very homogeneous it would seem - so slides, if they happen, will take out a lot of the slope; worth thinking about places to stop if skiing that kind of terrain and communication.

There was an avalanche last year in the area (Tyrol) where I remember 5 people being caught towards the head of the valley, all wearing airbags. I wouldn't expect an airbag to be so effective in this kind of slide to be honest.
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The slope at Obergurgl where the recent avalanche occured only really starts to steepen up at an altitude of 2700 - 2750m. The peak is around 3300m high and the avalanche went 800m up so they must have been really unlucky to trigger the avalanche at 2500m or lower. RIP
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DB wrote:
The slope at Obergurgl where the recent avalanche occured only really starts to steepen up at an altitude of 2700 - 2750m. The peak is around 3300m high and the avalanche went 800m up so they must have been really unlucky to trigger the avalanche at 2500m or lower. RIP


I think anyone who triggers an avalanche and is injured or dies is really unlucky. Thankfully the chances of it happening to any individual are pretty small.

If the weak layer extends down onto the flat then there is no reason why it can't be triggered at that point. What is important is that the part of the slope that releases is over 30 degrees.

So you are pootling up the valley on the flat, you hear a whump beneath your feet and maybe see a few cracks in the snow as the layer you are on collapses,



meanwhile under your feet the weak layer is collapsing - like a load of dominos


http://youtube.com/v/IXtDChNB3gc

if you are unlucky the collapse goes far enough up slope to an area of > 30 degrees steepness where the slab has enough potential energy to move downslope. If you are really unlucky its 2 meters + of new snow that takes the whole slope with it. You look up-slope, pull the rip cord on your airbag and think "ach scheisse" before being buried and crushed to death by the weight of 100,000 tonnes of snow.
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davidof wrote:
. If you are really unlucky its 2 meters + of new snow that takes the whole slope with it. You look up-slope, pull the rip cord on your airbag and think "ach scheisse" before being buried and crushed to death by the weight of 100,000 tonnes of snow.

Is it any better if you can't think in German?
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