 Poster: A snowHead
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Any idea how long this dry warm spell will continue in the alps?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Looking at the charts, for the next couple of weeks at least, subject to the normal FI caveats of course.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Chris Brookes, current GFS data shows the heat continues to the 26th of Feb.
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@nozawaonsen, check out forecast for, Queyras, Abries / Ristolas - snow all next week.
Mates have gone down there today chasing snow from last night.
I'm still off games and would not mind warm temps and sunshine for next week, as I can rest my knee further and get out on the bike 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Can anyone tell me what these high temps will mean for my trip to Alpbach on 18th?
Are the pistes likely to hold up in such temps?
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@smudger, they will be fine, it will be still sub zero at night and there is plenty of snow already. It should mean plenty of opportunities for beers on the terrace and skiing in comfortable temperatures.
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/alpbach
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@AthersT, thanks!
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@smudger, (early) spring skiing at its very best.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@franga, @AthersT, thanks - loving the positivity!
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@smudger, its the truth tbh dude.
The people who are not enjoying this season are generally the off-piste skiers, on-piste its been pretty decent especially in Austria where the ultra cold January has preserved the lots of snow that fell in the early part of the month. You will have a great time in probably the most beautiful ski resort in the world.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@AthersT, really? What's so good about Alpbach then? Is it chocolate box pretty?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Hope all this positivity is right. Going to alpbach on the 18th too.
Chocolate box family friendly. Been going for 8 years and like a second home now. My 6 year old was crying this morning because he didn't want to wait another week to be there.
Feeling similar myself
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Just checked meteociel for Alpe d'Huez next week and temperatures still cold. Is this warm front only in certain areas of the alps?
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@howiet, no warm front, just a warm airmass from the south. Alpe d'Huez looks warmer than normal to me.
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Poster: A snowHead
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I'm not really an on piste skier these days but I think next week will be lovely. Warm sunshine, beers on the terrace and maybe even some spring snow.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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How long does it take for spring snow to form? Supposed to be doing an off-piste course in Engelberg for the week commencing Feb 18, and from the forecasts it looks like there'll be very little chance of any powder. But spring snow would be good, if there's time for it to form with the warmer weather forecast for the week ahead.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@zzz what am I missing?
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@howiet, That's meteociel! It always seems to give temperatures way colder than other forecasts with a manual input. I don't know but I suspect they just use a simple algorithm that takes the zero degree isotherm and then applies a standard adiabatic lapse rate which does not take account of local conditions at the time and insolation (warming from the sun). In the last cold spell it was producing temps as low as -38C for Tignes, we got to -22.
Try this for a more balanced approach:
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/alpe-dhuez/38750
Happy to be corrected by those with proper qualifications in Meteorology (as opposed to 30 years using their products).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@chocksaway so far this season I have found meteofrance useless as soon as the weather becomes slightly changeable! Just looking for an alternative.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| zzz wrote: |
| I'm not really an on piste skier these days but I think next week will be lovely. Warm sunshine, beers on the terrace and maybe even some spring snow. |
Can someone clarify what is meant by "spring snow"? I'd always assumed it to mean icy in the morning and soft/slushy later on, so skiable but not ideal, but a few posters on here seem to imply its a good thing?
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Spring snow, or corn snow, is a kind of soft snow, great to ski in, which is the result of a freeze-thaw cycle over a period which changes the shape of the snow crystals. It's a transient thing, occurring between the hard iciness in the morning and the slushiness later on which you mentioned. For a while, after the sun catches it but before the heat of the day builds up, it takes on a pleasant soft texture. Skiers plan their routes around the off-piste, starting with the east facing slopes which get the first sun, then moving round to south and west as the sun warms up the respective slopes. Not sure how long it takes for the transformation of the snow crystals to take place, though, hence my question.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
| @Chris Brookes, current GFS data shows the heat continues to the 26th of Feb. |
Warm until the end of the month with no new snow and if it did snow, rain at low altitude......the joys!
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as someone said the piste skiers have been done well by the various resorts....off piste at least in my neck of the woods was a zero....and i mean that. Still skiing in the alps is the bees knees and all those lunches still to look forward to.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Been a brutal season in the Alps.
Would not be a surprise to see some resorts in France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland or Austria close early next month.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Easter is late this year so yes if the warm weather and lack of new snowfall remains I can see quite a few small resorts closing in March.
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Strange day today in Bormio. Various forecasts showed overcast skies but no snow. However, it snowed all day and is still snowing now. It was very light snow and despite the length of time it has been falling it is only now starting to accumulate at village level.Looking forward a few days; Bergfwx has nothing but Accuweather has snow turning to rain.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The corn harvest should come early this year. Get out there folks.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Looking particularly warm in the NW Alps (I'm looking at the Tignes ensembles) for WC 20 February - still early days, of course, but I can't imagine that this will change significantly? From my limited experience, precipitation levels can change dramatically 10 days out but temperatures seem to be less volatile. What do our experts think?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@franga, it can change completely.
Doesn't mean it will, but as has been said more than a few times anything beyond seven days is very unreliable. That's why long term forecasts are... unreliable. Doesn't mean they are always wrong, just that the point is confidence and you cannot have confidence in a forecast at that range.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@franga, it can change completely.
Doesn't mean it will, but as has been said more than a few times anything beyond seven days is very unreliable. That's why long term forecasts are... unreliable. Doesn't mean they are always wrong, just that the point is confidence and you cannot have confidence in a forecast at that range. |
But it does look like this warm operational run, is an outlier in the Ensembles, not? (At least when I look at GFS). So not very probable to happen?
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@franga yes temperature is more reliable than precipitation at all lengths of time, but of course both figures will go down as the forecast goes further into the future. And most would say MJO, PV and other climate drivers are more reliable than any of pressure, precip and temperatures.
Lots of things affect the weather, and looking at temperature and precipitation isn't the end all of everything, as they are more interesting patterns that affect the weather.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Jellybeans1000, a temperature forecast is not reliable 10 days out. There is a broad trend towards warm temperatures clearly shown in the reliable time frame. It extends further out, but confidence also drops at that stage.
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You only need to look at the differences between GFS and ECM or between the GFS 18z and 00z runs overnight to see the lack of consensus at day 10.
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@nozawaonsen You are quite right, if you are talking about extended GFS. NOAA's input data isn't good enough for that. More reliable sources available than that. There's a reason why you can see all of NOAA's charts, but not all of the EC data. There's a bunch of mainly American meterologists on Twitter and reddit that seem to be game to give long range forecasts a go. But they aren't guessing exact snowfall at Chamonix 25 days away, more general NH patterns.
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Or indeed the bank of fog holding up the World Cup downhill right now...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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But isn't it possible to glean a general idea, or trend from modeling. For example I am heading to Norway in a few weeks. GFS, Meteocil, etc are starting to show snow events happening around that time. I know I am way in the long term, but can't you assume from this that weather is coming. Obviously predicting amounts in a particular destination is pure fantasyland, but it seems something is going to happen. We won't really no more of how much and where, with any reasonable accuracy, until about 5 days out. Is this a fair hypothesis?
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Thanks @nozawaonsen and @Jellybeans1000, let's see how it all evolves.
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