 Poster: A snowHead
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@nozawaonsen, @Jellybeans1000, Next week is a major week for UK families because of half term so i am sure there is a lot of focus on next week specifically rather than further out in FI .Is it possible to give some sort of general synopsis at this stage for French Savoie region , i.e are we likely to see some snow / sun will it be warm or cool or is next week still too far out to get a day by day breakdown for 11th Feb through to 18th Feb .Or maybe another question when would it be possible to give a reasonably accurate prediction for the whole of next week
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@gwatts10, don't forget us Northerners who will be out in force during WC 20th ...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@gwatts10, looks fairly quiet at present. Dry, sunny and slightly warmer than average.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
don't forget us Northerners who will be out in force during WC 20th ...
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And us Welsh! X
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @gwatts10, looks fairly quiet at present. Dry, sunny and slightly warmer than average. |
And for the French southern alps?
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| RetroBod wrote: |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @gwatts10, looks fairly quiet at present. Dry, sunny and slightly warmer than average. |
And for the French southern alps? |
Similar. Sunny, dry and mild look likely.
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General weather question - at what point over the next few weeks does the warming effect of the sun (as well as > freezing temperatures) start to have an impact on snow quality and initiate the thaw / freeze cycle? And are above 0C temps less detrimental to the snowpack in the middle of winter than in spring? I hope I'm making sense here ... apologies if not.
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@gwatts10 here's a general breakdown of the weather around the Alps, from 10-18 Feb.
10th Feb: Moderate Snow in the south, partly cloudy in the North.
11th Feb: Morning snow showers in much of the Southern Alps.
12th Feb: Partly Cloudy
13th Feb: Mostly Cloudy, isolated snow (at height) and rain showers
14th Feb: Cloudy in the south, clear in the north. Light snow in the south.
15th Feb: Light snow in morning in the south, cloud clearing across Alps in afternoon.
16th Feb: Partly Cloudy in the south, Clear in the north.
17th Feb: Mostly sunny across the Alps
18th Feb: Mostly Sunny across the Alps
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| franga wrote: |
| General weather question - at what point over the next few weeks does the warming effect of the sun (as well as > freezing temperatures) start to have an impact on snow quality and initiate the thaw / freeze cycle? And are above 0C temps less detrimental to the snowpack in the middle of winter than in spring? I hope I'm making sense here ... apologies if not. |
Above 0c temps in Spring and winter have same effect, devastating the snowpack.
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| franga wrote: |
| General weather question - at what point over the next few weeks does the warming effect of the sun (as well as > freezing temperatures) start to have an impact on snow quality and initiate the thaw / freeze cycle? And are above 0C temps less detrimental to the snowpack in the middle of winter than in spring? I hope I'm making sense here ... apologies if not. |
You also have to take into account the slope aspect and altitudes. North and NW facing slopes tend to get a bit less exposure. But around end of February and beginning of March is when solar radiation starts to impact the slopes.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Jellybeans1000, Thanks very much a nice bit of sunshine will do me lovely , wouldn't mind an overnight dump just to get the wintry feeling but sunny slopes with good vis will do.Thanks very much
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Bit worried about what a week of relative warmth and sunshine, coupled with HT crowds will do to the pistes for the following week. I gues by the week of 18th-24th (Les Arcs) things could start to get a bit worn again? Or has this last week done enough to bolster the base for longer?
I realise it's a bit early for whether or not there will be any top-ups during the week, but it looks fairly set for (most of) next week now.
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| Quote: |
Above 0c temps in Spring and winter have same effect, devastating the snowpack.
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No not necessarily. If the humidity is low eg. 30% or less, say in a northerly airstream or a flow from central Europe, then temps can happily climb above zero with relatively little loss of snow cover. Saturated air is the enemy of snow because it does not allow the snow to sublimate and cool the snow pack. Instead it directly melts into liquid water without any cooling.
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You know it makes sense.
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And don't forget the wind, wind exacerbates the melting if the temps are above zero.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Bergfex is saying it's going to be really warm (9 degrees at 1300 m) in the Tyrol next week. I do hope not as we are in Ischgl. Can any experts shed any light as to what might be happening please
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Poster: A snowHead
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Zermatt update. Still snowing. That's pretty much continuous since Sunday morning. Runs have plenty of great snow right down to the village. Visibility pretty poor though currently as you might expect.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| skribble wrote: |
| Bergfex is saying it's going to be really warm (9 degrees at 1300 m) in the Tyrol next week. I do hope not as we are in Ischgl. Can any experts shed any light as to what might be happening please |
If it stays dry (as most forecasts suggest) I would have thought that this would mean some lovely (early) spring skiing ... we are off to the EK a week on Saturday and I'm not remotely worried about this scenario (we are piste skiers / boarders).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@franga, yes.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Any sign of snow in Saalbach in the foreseeable? A wee top up before I go out in early March would be nice
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| franga wrote: |
| General weather question - at what point over the next few weeks does the warming effect of the sun (as well as > freezing temperatures) start to have an impact on snow quality and initiate the thaw / freeze cycle? And are above 0C temps less detrimental to the snowpack in the middle of winter than in spring? I hope I'm making sense here ... apologies if not. |
Peak-Winter for the Northern Hemisphere is around Feb 12th (this Sunday).
After that date, the Alps begin hurtling away from Winter and toward Spring.
Trails around 200-1000m will start their melt next week.
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@nozawaonsen, Does this mean I'm unlikely to need my shovel and bag of cat litter in Sallanches next week?
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| Peter S wrote: |
| Quote: |
Above 0c temps in Spring and winter have same effect, devastating the snowpack.
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No not necessarily. If the humidity is low eg. 30% or less, say in a northerly airstream or a flow from central Europe, then temps can happily climb above zero with relatively little loss of snow cover. Saturated air is the enemy of snow because it does not allow the snow to sublimate and cool the snow pack. Instead it directly melts into liquid water without any cooling. |
Fair.
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@kb36, possibly some on the 20-22nd Feb period.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Looking at the forecasts it looks like next week is going to be sunny and warm(er). Ideal for half termers after a decent amount of fresh snow this week.
To the experts here, was this week's snow a game changer for off piste or does it just make it marginally better?
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| zinekar wrote: |
Looking at the forecasts it looks like next week is going to be sunny and warm(er). Ideal for half termers after a decent amount of fresh snow this week.
To the experts here, was this week's snow a game changer for off piste or does it just make it marginally better? |
Where are you talking about? Definitely not a game changer in Austria, it's all tracked out (the easily accessible stuff anyway) and we missed out on most of the snow that hit the Southern Alps. Every where icy as ****!! Pretty much has been since the 3rd week of January, stick to the pistes imo
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@zinekar, Up here in the E-K it has made a big difference off piste above about 1800m as it has increased the Base Layer. Below that it is still very thin (report from a mate who skied down to Lac Du Chevril) on Tuesday. However, as it was warm when it arrived and has suffered from wind from virtually all directions any talk of a powder fest is overplayed! For that we need new snow on top of the established base.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Can I please have an update on the latest FI ??
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You know it makes sense.
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Anyone know what model J2SKI use for their forecasts ??
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Quote: |
Anyone know what model J2SKI use for their forecasts ??
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GFS. From an old post on their website:
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one of the apparent GFS (Global Forecast System) model deficiencies - deviations in the model seem to be sometimes compounded with time-to-go; so the estimates of precipitation sometimes start out large (at 7 days) and fall progressively as the actual day approaches.
This effect seems to apply mostly to small snowfalls - the combination of our processing and the GFS model generally predicts the big dumps quite well, even from a week out.
We will be looking at this over the summer and looking at ways to minimise such deviations with our own post-processing of the raw GFS data.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Chris Brookes 23-25th Feb looks like a nice parcel of moisture on GFS. Quite warm though.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@zinekar, Quick update, we had another 20cm last night in the E-K. So just had a fab day off piste, not champagne powder but great freshtracks.
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Looks like warm weather and a Föhn in places for at least the next week or so. Damage limitation time.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Noza from whence derive your selection of vintage on point images??
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@8611, just hunting around the internet.
Piedmont and Aosta look best bets for snow in the short run otherwise dry and sunny out into the distance.
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html
Not snowy, but far from unpleasant.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Unpleasant? Let the sun shine. Ideal conditions for those of us who tend to stay in-between piste markers.
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Yes. Nothing like an extra half hour lounging on a sun basked balcon. Even for me a massive snow headed snowHead. Mainly piste for me to. Partial to the odd dalliance in the powder but if it ain't coming next week it'll have to wait to next year.......
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