 Poster: A snowHead
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Any reports/predictions for Austria (Ski Welt)?
Thanks
Kersh
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| skiandgolfnut wrote: |
| Been following these threads religiously in anticipation of a trip to Zermatt next month. Watching forecasts and radars, it seems like these storms weaken as they approach the Zermatt area in particular, and are failing to reach predicted levels. Is this a trend common with storms coming off the atlantic headed eastward? |
yes and again the forecast fizzles.......I'm afraid Zermatt off piste is a zero this year - the upcoming storm has gotten downgraded as have all other storms this year excepting the big event in November....that does seem s a long time ago now. Next year maybe....pistes were handled remarkably well and I think holiday makers avoided disaster - off piste though.....worse than terrible, just nothing. More snow in, anywhere really.
Unlucky, maybe next year will even it all out though.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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where are all the updates ? where are all the forecasters ? whose every word has thousands of us desperately hoping to see the forecasts for our resort is for heavy overnight snow and sunny blue sky days . I know you maybe out enjoying yourselves in the snow but this thread has been lacking any updates for at least 8 hrs so can you please stop enjoying yourselves and return to this forum at once .
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@gwatts10 Haha I am not enjoying myself, I am in a heavy rainstorm in Melbourne Australia. 
It has been quite empty for last couple of days.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Jellybeans1000, sorry no offence meant but i reckon a rainstorm in melbourne is better than a damp dreary grey day in Suffolk and as you state there's not been a lot of posting and with the main UK school half term starting next Saturday there will be loads of people wanting every minutiae of every detail they can get in anticipation
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By way of a trip weather report and also my observations on what was forecast and what happened. Not entirely on topic but hopefully of interest to some
If anyone is sufficiently bored to look back I commented and asked questions from about mid January on the outlook for the w/c 28th January for the Austrian Salzburgerland, specifically Zell am See at 47n13e.
From the outset the GFS ensembles showed a significant warm up occurring, initially just before and latterly over the weekend of 28/29 January. 850's were at or above the 30 year average from the Sunday onward and over the 10 days before they varied somewhat, decreasing as the time frame got closer. ECM moved similarly although seemed to try and keep it colder for longer.
We arrived lunchtime Saturday to -9c and it fell to -14c by bedtime. When we got up on Sunday it was -6c and 2c by lunchtime. an inversion was present until Friday lunchtime. Sunday and Monday were very pleasant skiing weather. Tuesday dawned with heavy rain right up to about 1650m which gradually turned to snow and descended right down to village level.
I suppose I am lucky in that was my first experience of rain in the Alps in deep winter. Interestingly it made the pistes fantastic to ski on, the only problem being that no-one has yet invented goggles with wipers and in heavy rain I found I needed to do a lot of lens wiping. We tried going up above the snow-line but the visibility was maybe 20 feet in huge wet heavy flakes and actually worse than the rain. Felt rather odd sitting absolutely drenched at lunchtime. Gave me horrible memories of Glenshee in the late 80's and early 90's
Got warmer still on Wednesday and was 13c at mid station of the Areit at lunchtime, horrible for a confirmed January skier. Wednesday and Thursday were hard work in the new snow which was like wet sand in places but there was plenty of it so no complaints here. Friday was bit cooler and hazy so lovely skiing.
All in all fine but sods law from my point of preference that I managed to pick the one mild week in the coldest Austrian January in 30 years. I arrived in deepest winter and left one week later in early spring
From a 'Weather Outlook' point of view the interesting thing is that what I experienced felt very much like what the GFS ensembles predicted from over 2 weeks previously. We are always saying that FI is just that, the merest indicator of trends but here it felt like last nights MetO after the news. By way of caveat I haven't compared the actual data. Maybe someone knows where you can get historical charts from approx 12th January onwards to compare them with the actuals from 28th January. Would be interesting to see them?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Zermatt update as of writing. Still heavy snow coming down in the village. Just retreated from Rothorn after a great lunch in fluhalp. 10cm on my skis after 11/2hours in the restaurant. 1 ft /25cm of powder on the red run Down. Seemingly a fair bit forecast for the rest of the week. Happy half term for those with school kids coming out 
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In Lech currently. We had a couple of centimetres last night and today it really started to chuck it down from about 1.00pm. About 5 cm so far and still going strong.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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About 5cm so far in the village in Wengen.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Extracts from SLF on Switzerland.
http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN
As a consequence of fresh snow and wind a critical avalanche situation will prevail
"Fresh snow
On Sunday in the northern Lower Valais, there was 10 to 15 cm of new fallen snow registered; in the remaining parts of the Valais, in the Vaud and Fribourg Alps and in Ticino, there was 5 to 10 cm of fresh fallen snow registered; in the other regions of Switzerland, only a few centimeters of new fallen snow.
Between Thursday and Sunday above approximately 2000m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow were registered:
- Northern Valais from Trient into the Aletsch region, central sector of the northern flank of the Alps, Val Bregaglia and the Bernina region: 30 to 50 cm;
- Northern flank of the Alps west of Lake Thun, remaining parts of Valais, Upper Engadine: 15 to 30 cm;
- In other regions of Switzerland, 5 to 15 cm over widespread areas.
...
Weather forecast through Monday, 6.2.2017
Skies are expected to be heavily overcast and in northern regions, snowfall is anticipated over widespread areas above approximately 600 m. During the afternoon, the snowfall will slacken off. In southern regions, the precipitation will come to an end during the course of the day and it will become partly sunny under the influence of the northerly foehn winds.
Fresh snow
_ On the northern flank of the Alps, in western Lower Valais: 15 to 30 cm;
- On the northern Alpine Ridge from the Trient region into the Aletsch region, as much as 40 cm;
- Remaining parts of the Valais, northern and central Grisons: 10 to 20 cm;
- In other regions of Switzerland: 5 to 10 cm."
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You know it makes sense.
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Just walked home from the pub and am happy to report that this can now be considered as a season altering snowfall, here in the PDS at least. It's been absolutely chucking it down at the same impressive, incessant, continuous rate for nearing 24 hours.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@nozawaonsen, many thanks and rest assured no criticism at all from me on your excellent input here. I understand what you say about the probabilities of FI completely and think it will give me a better understanding going forward and is hopefully helpful to others.
To clarify my thoughts were more a reflection of how my very limited knowledge of these matters has influenced my interpretation. I wasn't thinking about it clearly, probably as a combination of a dis-inclination to accept the approaching reality and a misguided, hope-casted dismissal of the obvious, simply because, on this occasion, the pattern that transpired had originated in FI. Lesson learned. 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Bergfex suggests high FLs (up to 3,000M) for the NW Alps from next Monday - @nozawaonsen, is this your view too?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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GFS output @franga
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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This output is way out in FI land. It can (and will) change.
However... based on my entirely unscientific experience when we are talking about warming or cooling in FI, warm side always happen meanwhile cold outcome tends to be milder than predicted.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Nelbert75 wrote: |
| Just walked home from the pub and am happy to report that this can now be considered as a season altering snowfall, here in the PDS at least. It's been absolutely chucking it down at the same impressive, incessant, continuous rate for nearing 24 hours. |
Not convinced it's a season changer just yet, but most welcomed!
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| Quote: |
Weathercam
FreeRider
Posts: 3843
Location: Serre Chevalier
As is so often the case after a few days of storm driven snowfall we now have the payback of strong winds, that will close many top lifts across the French Alps I'd surmise (great start to the holidays) as well as create massive wind slabs off piste.
And actually 3 below 2,000 which I found out to my cost getting caught on Saturday and now off games for a while
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Or maybe not, maybe it will be fantastic and most things will be open and everyone will be grateful for the snow.
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Still snowing in Zermatt. Over 24 hours continuous. A lot of Avalanche blasting has been taking place. When all has settled even the triftti bumps could open.
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| Quote: |
And actually 3 below 2,000 which I found out to my cost getting caught on Saturday and now off games for a while
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@Weathercam,
do you mean you were caught in an avalanche and injured on Saturday????
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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BTW - Just been looking at weather and conditions before our drive on Thursday (planning on leaving Bucks around 3PM and driving right through to Les Contamines). Seems like Les C had 40cm over the weekend and has bits and bobs of snow on and off through the week to come but fortunately not Snowmageddon on Thursday night. Webcams of the nursery slopes in the village (1150m) show things looking delightfully snowy. Overall looking like a good half term week ahead but we could still do with a sustained dump to get snow levels up to seasonal averages and fill in the glaciers for the touring season.
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Thanks@Jellybeans1000, still a long way out ...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| jedster wrote: |
| Quote: |
And actually 3 below 2,000 which I found out to my cost getting caught on Saturday and now off games for a while
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@Weathercam,
do you mean you were caught in an avalanche and injured on Saturday???? |
Yes, unfortunately, (but lucky to be only slightly crocked), all here http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=130216
@mheadbee, from where I live I can see how windy it is and the lifts closed, and Serre is low down as opposed to the likes of Tignes etc, and OH has just reported in, they've had enough, horrendous queues, welcome to the Frencg holidays folks 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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yikes!
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Phase 7/8 MJO and possible split PV adds a chance for a colder mid-late February and into March.
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You know it makes sense.
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Models throwing up all sorts of interesting options over the next few weeks.
Will the scandi high hold up, allowing cold air in from the NE, or will the azores high reach back into europe bringing dry mild conditions as the scandi high sinks or shifts W.
Also seems to be a theme for low pressure anomalies over Iberia. And even a possibility of freezing northerlies at the far end of FI.
I've read GFS in particular has a bias to return to atlantic westerlies in FI, and can underestimate the strength of scandi blocking. Another comment made was the Met Office rate JMA higher than GFS, but no mention of timeframe.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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This doesn't look great. Hope it turns out wrong.
GFS seems to have a cold SE in FI.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@nozawaonsen I like that meteogram. Shows a fair amount of info.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| langball wrote: |
Models throwing up all sorts of interesting options over the next few weeks.
Will the scandi high hold up, allowing cold air in from the NE, or will the azores high reach back into europe bringing dry mild conditions as the scandi high sinks or shifts W.
Also seems to be a theme for low pressure anomalies over Iberia. And even a possibility of freezing northerlies at the far end of FI.
I've read GFS in particular has a bias to return to atlantic westerlies in FI, and can underestimate the strength of scandi blocking. Another comment made was the Met Office rate JMA higher than GFS, but no mention of timeframe. |
JMA isn't rated very well by most Weather folk. GFS has many bias, some are documented.
PM Sent.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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I'm a bit confused about the options in FI - @langball's view doesn't quite tally with the chart that @snowheads68 has posted? Or am I being thick?
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@franga, don't think anyone has set views on FI....there are endless possibilities as ever. FI is a very long period of time, say anything beyond D7-D10. On top of that, the chart above is ECM for 16th feb, while my comment referred to GFS (P) starting around the 19th (which is way too far away to be a view, just a nice option to look out for).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@langball, thank you.
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@langball I am not well versed in the doings of the Met Office. But I know JMA is treated with caution (especially their ENSO forecasts).
I rely on EC for the accuracy, GFS for the massive data output and whatever chart is 'in' with the general weather community. As people say there are biases in different charts, which do better in certain season setups. It seems to be UKMO charts that are tracking the best at the moment... But when I can, I do look at all of the data I can. I do wish NBM (National Blend of Models) could become a reality for Global forecasts, but at least for now, we have to check all of the data...
Also be careful with GFS Para use in FI. It's experimental, so....
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FAQ
