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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Weathercam wrote:
@davidof, yes stopping off at Voissant just down the road from Miribel-les-Échelles.

Feeling a lot cooler today with a windchill in the breeze - glad I did that big bike ride yesterday!

I did try to persuade the Mrs to go back Monday so we could get as quick ski tour in on Sunday, but she wasn't up for it rolling eyes


You should have toured on the days you arrived, not sure the w'end will be great weather for being out and about.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@davidof, did think that when I cycled up the Galibier and saw that guy touring, but hey ho I'll be able to get a few days in this coming season Cool

In fact that's what the OH said when I asked could we stay on rolling eyes
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Both GFS and ECM going for a cold second week of November.
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Weathercam wrote:
@davidof, did think that when I cycled up the Galibier and saw that guy touring, but hey ho I'll be able to get a few days in this coming season Cool

In fact that's what the OH said when I asked could we stay on rolling eyes


and this is what was happening on the n. side when you saw that guy

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@davidof, tidy lines Smile
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kitenski wrote:
@davidof, tidy lines Smile


Rare to see the French snow farming.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@davidof, some nice photos from that sortie I especially like the family of snow grouse.
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Snow line on Sunday now looking considerably lower especially in the eastern Alps. The snowfall itself will arrive in the west on Saturday when temperatures are still relatively mild (2000m+). It looks like dropping below 1000m on Sunday, that means the back end of the snowfall in the western Alps will settle much lower. In the eastern Alps the majority of the snow looks like arriving on Sunday after the drop in temperatures and by Monday will be falling down to 500m.
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@nozawaonsen, yes had dropped dramatically for here to in Serre Che on the Sunday and well into next week -14 in the valley!!!!

We're leaving today and I've isolated the webcam and router so I can leave the cam on whilst we're back in the UK so we can see what we're missing too rolling eyes

http://www.stylealtitude.com/serrechevalierweathercam.html

Has been cracking weather though this trip and last day of sunshine today on the bikes, farmers yesterday were taking electric fences down and moving their stock down the mountain in anticipation of winter arriving, wonder what they did in the old days pre t'internet Puzzled
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As of now, there's 117cm of snow forecast for Tignes over the next 9 days, with very respectable freezing levels. snowHead
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Old Fartbag wrote:
As of now, there's 117cm of snow forecast for Tignes over the next 9 days, with very respectable freezing levels. snowHead

Is that likely to last until December, even if temperatures rise above average for the second half of November?
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Now that's the million dollar question....but it's a good start.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@ManiaMuse, it all depends on how warm it gets between now and December. With very mild conditions any snowfall beyond the glacier would rapidly disappear. Obviously if it stays colder then less so. Any figure such as 117cm should be treated with a fair amount of caution (see page 1).
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
ManiaMuse wrote:
Old Fartbag wrote:
As of now, there's 117cm of snow forecast for Tignes over the next 9 days, with very respectable freezing levels. snowHead

Is that likely to last until December, even if temperatures rise above average for the second half of November?


To reinforce what Noz has said above

French Alps 22 November 2015

Christmas 2015
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I bought Rose Tinted goggles for a reason and don't let my bubble go too close to sharp objects...it's going to be a fab start to the season!! snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
No el nino this year. Very Happy
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well I am getting pretty excited at the latest forecasts. Driving out to Austria for the winter on Wednesday and looks like the season may be starting.
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I think this should be called "The Optimistic All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread."
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Colorado has been hit by a warm period. A-Basin is open but struggling. Loveland delayed its opening and is having one of its worst starts in recent times:

http://www.summitdaily.com/news/sports/at-a-basin-warm-temps-force-ski-clubs-to-get-creative-with-early-season-training/

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My heart bleeds for colorado...........


Give us some doom and gloom for tha Alps in January please whitegold!
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Just been looking at my garden and plenty of snow at 1400m
http://stylealtitude.com/serrechevalierweathercam.html
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
As Scotspikey said, no El Nino this year. As far as long range forecasts are concerned, that is the best observation available.
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ManiaMuse wrote:
Old Fartbag wrote:
As of now, there's 117cm of snow forecast for Tignes over the next 9 days, with very respectable freezing levels. snowHead

Is that likely to last until December, even if temperatures rise above average for the second half of November?


It will on the high resorts like Val Thorens. As per the photo of the disappearing snow, the november snow last year was followed by warm dry out to xmas. I was out in val thorens and they managed to keep the pistes reasonably ok. xmas week was harder as they wear and tear caused the odd stone to show through and there were lots of icey patches. but any snow of that amount now will stick at the high altitude resorts i would have thought. they have been building up piles of snow with the canons this week in vt so this dump will set the pistes up well for the opening on 26th
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What is an El Niño?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
A sprinkle down to ~2000m in Zermatt today.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
jimmy38 wrote:
What is an El Niño?


A small latin American boy I believe
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
jimmy38 wrote:
What is an El Niño?


It means if you want a White Christmas in the Alps you need to start praying to Sweet Baby Jesus! wink
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jimmy38, El Nino? Google it. rolling eyes

And davidof, didn't something very similar happen October/November 2014?
What the weather brings now has little to do with what it will be like mid-December.
But we all live in hope . . .
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That's not quite true in the higher resorts @Jonpim. Snow now will be the base for the november opening resorts. They are already piling up the canon snow to get ready to spread it about in a week or so.
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Jonpim wrote:
jimmy38, El Nino? Google it. rolling eyes

And davidof, didn't something very similar happen October/November 2014?
What the weather brings now has little to do with what it will be like mid-December.
But we all live in hope . . .


Yes, last two starts to the season have been dreadful round my way but things can change from range to range. For example the next set of mountains, the Beaufortain, had good conditions and snow depths for most of last seasons. A single dump can make the difference between happiness and misery.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@emwmarine,
I agree. The next week of off and on snow is good early season news for the high resorts. If I was running a resort I would have the cannons going 24/7 in the cold weather. Places like Tignes and VT will be trying to get their resort runs functional during this cold window of opportunity.
In short it is better to have this coming weather than not.
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Yes indeed, much misery is guaranteed below 2000m. It seems low altitude resorts in the french alps are, to quote Blackadder, like a broken pencil. Little Angel

Meanwhile, back in the real world of computer modelling, ECM on the left has northern blocking mid Nov (15th), while GFS goes for more typical westerly flow.

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http://www.valthorens.com/en/live/livecams--webcams/resort-livecam.550.html

Looking good for a first fall and the snow cannons have been on full blast.
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Plenty of snow down to 750m in the Eastern Alps at Zell am See and still snowing.
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Quote:

much misery is guaranteed below 2000m

Puzzled After the (very) bad start at Christmas/New Year we had decent snow depths in our area (the Beaufortain) last year as @davidof noted above. Just a few miles can make a big difference, no matter where you are in the Alps.

The last couple of years might have reminded people that Christmas/New Year is very early season. And stop people referring to early March as "late". wink
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Pretty cold in the Alps for the time of year over the next week with more snowfall looking likely on 11 November.

After that it looks like warming up a bit with some further unsettled weather though hard at this stage to get much of a sense beyond that.
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The Lecht, Scotland, today:

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Lots of snow around here - even down to the city late this afternoon. Glacier should be great later this week, possibly even enough to go touring on grassy slopes in other resorts tomorrow...
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