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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
kitenski wrote:
@Raven, some recommendations further back in this thread where places got good snow, Montgenevre and other Italian resorts from memory.


Thanks

I've got a backup plan to go to Sestriere now. Of course everything could change by the time I get to Europe but with me spending so much money to get to Europe from Australia I need something in place. One of the advantages of a solo trip is that I can change my mind to go wherever I want and not have to ask anyone Smile
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
ECM looking good in FI. Very good.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
My Christmas Day was great (and I hope yours was too). But today is Boxing Day.

So seconds out...

A massive divide this morning.

In the red corner all the way from Reston Virginia is the American avenger G F S!!!

Who keeps high pressure anchored over Europe in early January...



In the Blue corner all the way from Reading, Surrey is the European evangelist...E C M W F!!!

Who has the high pressure sitting further west over he Atlantic...




http://youtube.com/v/JG2onzLFjpI
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Need a couple more 'rounds' to see how the fight progresses.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.


EC looks tasty, could fizz.
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stewart woodward wrote:
Need a couple more 'rounds' to see how the fight progresses.


As in the World Wars, the Yanks will finally come on board once it's all been decided anyway.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, @Jellybeans1000, thanks for driving this thread, I've learnt a lot from it. And now possibly, finally, some good news Smile
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2016/12/boxing-day-teleconnections-forecast.html
Wrap up of teleconnections from me. Will spare you guys some photos from Aspen in a week's time wink
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Some decent snowfall to come in parts of Austria in next couple of days with temperatures dropping tomorrow.

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GFS 06z still has high pressure setting up and resetting much closer to Europe than 00z ECM. This would still bring fresh snow to the northern Alps on 03 January and colder weather as well, but is far less of a TKO compared to ECM (though gets there in far FI albeit in a not very convincing manner). It'll be interesting to see how ECM plays it this evening.
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@nozawaonsen, I would never dream of questioning your meteorological prowess but your English geography is a bit off. Reading is just a few miles down the road from me in Berkshire. Merry Boxing Day. Smile
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
So who's better, GFS or ECM? There's only one way to find out.. .
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Bogusman, fair point.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
At 10 days, the 06Z GFS control is similar to last night's ECM and just keeps it going. Winter arrives from the North.





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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
We've seen several rounds already throughout December, and I think the referee would have stopped the fight by now as GFS has battered all of ECMs attempted breakdowns.

Looking at the 8-10day pressure anomaly graphs (Jan 2-4), both models have the high centered NW of Ireland, but stretching it east into France / Northern Europe.

Hard to see how it's different this time. Apart from the fact we are creeping deeper into "winter", there is no cross model support, it's still too far out to be taken seriously and the last few days have produced a lot of high pressure runs early Jan.

Oh and WRF has temps here of 10-15 for the 29th, and zero ISO above 3000. Happy Christmas.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
Some decent snowfall to come in parts of Austria in next couple of days with temperatures dropping tomorrow.



Which Austrian resorts look likely to benefit from this if it comes off?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Correction: the 0z 8-10 day anomaly for ECM is dramatically colder than the 12z I was looking it. Rope a dope time.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
Which Austrian resorts look likely to benefit from this if it comes off?


http://www.bergfex.at/steiermark/wetter/schneevorhersage/?t=0_72

Tauplitz
http://www.bergfex.at/tauplitz/wetter/berg/

Gemeindealpe (a very small Resort in Eastern Austria)
http://www.bergfex.at/gemeindealpe/wetter/berg/
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@DB, thank you.
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@Ricklovesthepowder,

You're welcome.

Hochkar - another small Austria Resort (approx 2 hrs drive from Vienna)
http://www.bergfex.com/hochkar/wetter/berg/
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@DB, flight have gone crazy to Munich/Vienna/Salzburg. I'll keep looking. Thank you
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@DB, a minor detour from the thread, but out in Vienna from Wednesday for a few days. Any recommendations in addition to Hochkar for something within striking distance of Vienna for a day trip (we have hire cars)??
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Double Bombardino, a place called Annaberg looks decent. 2 hours drive from Vienna
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@Double Bombardino, Stuhleck - Semmering was mentioned on here not long ago as an area near Vienna.
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Météo France showing now for the 3rd and 4th Jan but they have let me down so many times before I refuse to get my hopes up!
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Double Bombardino wrote:
@DB, a minor detour from the thread, but out in Vienna from Wednesday for a few days. Any recommendations in addition to Hochkar for something within striking distance of Vienna for a day trip (we have hire cars)??


Lackenhof aka Ötscher and Niederalpl are other possibilities for a day trip.

To be honest I'd wait and see where the snow falls tomorrow. The snowforecast area is pretty small and it could easily fall on the next mountain/region.

http://www.bergfex.com/oesterreich/schneewerte/?sort=BergNeuschnee24,DESC

http://www.ski-austria.com/vienna/


Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Mon 26-12-16 17:43; edited 2 times in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
3b metro going big on the cold now.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
@DB, flight have gone crazy to Munich/Vienna/Salzburg. I'll keep looking. Thank you


Maybe flights to Linz are cheaper. (Transfer time similiar to Salzburg i.e. ca 1:30 to Tauplitz) Klagenfurt for south eastern Austrian ski Resorts is another possibility.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
High pressure on 12z GFS op is setting up several 100 miles further west at +180.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
@Double Bombardino, a place called Annaberg looks decent. 2 hours drive from Vienna



Annaberg is a great little resort, doesn't have many km's of piste but it does have a much higher percentage of steeper (black slopes) than most other resorts near Vienna.

http://www.annaberg.info/bildergalerie-panorama-videos
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Hinterstoder could well see more snow than predicted - further away from Vienna than other resorts already mentioned but motorway all the way.
http://www.bergfex.com/hinterstoder-hoess/wetter/berg/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
12z GFS then goes on to rebuild high pressure across Europe before it all collapses in FI, although again in a not especially convincing manner.

Let's see how ECM looks.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Exciting stuff!
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@nozawaonsen, I approve of your caution. But....Yeah!.... Bring it on!
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@Jelly: what's your timing in Aspen?
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http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=ir&hours=24

Yet another storm in coming off the Pacific. Looks good for the usual suspects of PNW, BC Coast Range (Whistler), Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado and Tahoe resorts may see some toward the New Year.

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@mr. mike 3rd January. Looks Good Very Happy
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
At this stage ECM is looking more like GFS, but given we are still talking about events over 7 days away there is plenty of time for this to shift back and forth. Both at present are however agreeing on cold and snow around 03 January.
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EC still looks the goods on 12z run.

Below is the opinion of a Japanese powder seeker Sandy, talking about the polar heatwave

Quote:

Tokyo had snow on 24th November, first since 1962, and the first time on record, that it settled in November. It was preceded about 4 days before, with a day of 23 degrees.
There are currently two nodes that wax and wane, producing long incursions north, bringing warm weather, followed by cold. Japan is further south and less affected than say, Europe, Asian mainnland & N. America.

These incursions seem to have settled on Europe & Alaska recently.... any area to the EAST of these have cold weather. So, for example, US & Canada are east of Alaska, so it's been cold there.
See here: Look at Dec 14th, and you'll see what I mean.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/NHanim.html

Oh, and BTW, these incursions seem to be mainly located where the water access to the Arctic is closest (i.e. where water enters/leaves the Arctic), meaning that the water is very warm there. If it continues, I have some fears for the European winter.

The first period for Japan seemed to last from 24th Nov until around 15th Dec. I'm not sure, but we'll find out if there is some periodicity for central Japan. Perhaps 3 weeks/3 weeks.

No ice cover around Svalbard. Coincidence? I think not.
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Bergfex and Snow Forecast both showing significant snow next Tuesday for Ischgl. These are two different weather engines now agreeing. Fingers crossed!
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