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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The funny thing is... it is entirely possible that winter 2016/2017 will be like 2010/2011 due to ENSO neutral (Nino/Nina).

More here:

http://youtube.com/v/IABAfZUz1As?t=17m36s


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Wed 21-09-16 15:24; edited 1 time in total
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@matejp, I've become addicted to Gavs Videos theses last 2/3 weeks. It's been great to see that the climate models are starting to trend towards high pressure blocking over the Arctic and Greenland, with low pressure centred over Central Europe sucking in cold air from the north. Though it could be drier, it will definitely be colder if that scenario plays out.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@AthersT, same here. Seems the Met Office models in particular are providing the wild hope / stuff we want to hear.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean


The only other one I've been looking at it CFSv2, which has slightly above avg temps, ableit less and less so thru E1 E2 E3
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

But then when you look at the CFSv2 monthly model on Metrociel, it's showing below avg temps, particularly in Feb and March.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php

All thanks to GWV's link page.

For those looking for local fairytale signs guaranteeing snow....
Well there is the rarely heard Savoyard tale about freezing winters whenever a European Praying Mantis is spotted in the Autumn. Especially if on a snowboard.
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I would be a little cautious about wishing for a very cold and dry winter. That may well bring cold and snow to parts of the UK which don't normally see it (which inevitably gets many people on UK weather forums very excited), but can lead to rather so so conditions in the Alps.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
rogg wrote:
Before the proper forecasting starts in earnest, are there any 'Old Man of the Mountain' anecdotal forecasts? You know the ones "I saw a marmot circle the tallest genepy flower three times clockwise at midnight, so it's going to be a bumper year for snow". I quite like those, especially if they're optimistic. snowHead


I saw a rabbitt getting chased by a cat the other day. The cat only has 3 feet, so it wasn't much of a do or die situation for the rabbit. Based on this incident, the 2016/2017 winter season, at least for the PNW of North America will be of epic an unprecedented proportions. There will not be enough superlatives, nor pejoratives to describe it....
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nozawaonsen wrote:
I would be a little cautious about wishing for a very cold and dry winter. That may well bring cold and snow to parts of the UK which don't normally see it (which inevitably gets many people on UK weather forums very excited), but can lead to rather so so conditions in the Alps.


......unless of course you ski in the UK in which case we get very excited too snowHead
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SLF's outlook for Switzerland.

Heightened avalanche danger in high alpine regions

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/lawinengefahr/index_EN

"Weather forecast through Monday, 19 September 2016

A high-low weather system will determine the climatic conditions during the course of the next few days, although the amount of anticipated precipitation is still uncertain.

On Friday evening, 16 September, precipitation is expected to set in which on Friday night in eastern regions will become intensive. The snowfall level will be 2700 m to start with, subsequently drop during the course of the night to approximately 2200 m.

Between Friday evening and Saturday evening, 17 September, 10 to 20 cm of fresh fallen snow is anticipated over widespread areas above 2600 m; in the western sector of the northern flank of the Alps as well as in the eastern sector of the northern flank of the Alps and in the northernmost regions of Grisons, as much as 40 cm of new fallen snow is anticipated.

On Sunday, 18 September, and Monday, 19 September, conditions will remain variable accompanied by precipitation in western and northern regions more than anywhere else. The snowfall level will be between 2200 and 2500 m. Above 2800 m, an additional 10 to 30 cm of snowfall is possible; in western regions, as much as 60 cm of additional snowfall. The winds will be light to moderate for the most part. On Monday, northerly winds will intensify and it is expected to turn increasingly sunny in southern regions."
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Apologies for hijacking thread but can anybody confirm where/when early Dec buttons will be up.
THANKS
Just checked via events and still pointing to last year.

Email if needed geoffkendall at Hotmail dot com
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Definitely feels pretty autumnal here the last couple of days. New snow up on the glaciers too (all photos pinched from FB).

Kaunertal:



Pitztal have three lifts open (only a couple of pistes):







Stubai opens on the 30th - lifts currently under inspection. Will be another month 'til the new lift form the base station opens AFAIK though.
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Been unusually heavy snow in South Africa and Lesotho in the past few days.

In a normal season, by this time of year, all the snow is more or less melted...

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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Here is SLF's breakdown of the recent September snowfall for Switzerland. Temperatures are now back up to seasonal average.

"Weather conditions were determined by the low pressure front, causing repeated bouts of precipitation. The snowfall level was between 2400 and 2800 m.

Between Friday evening and Monday midday above approximately 3200 m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow were registered:

- Southern Valais from the Trient region into the Monte Rosa region: 40 to 60 cm;

- Northern Alpine Ridge from Les Diablerets into the Susten region: 30 to 50 cm;

- Remaining regions: 10 to 30 cm.

Below 3200 m the amounts of new fallen snow were significantly less; below 2500 m, next to no snow remained on the ground.
Winds were blowing at light to moderate strength from westerly to northerly directions. On Monday in southern region, moderate-velocity northerly foehn winds are expected to arise."
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
26/27 September currently looks like there might be another pulse of wintry weather in the eastern Alps down to around 2500m.

The Arlberg

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Somehow I get the feeling that der Schweiz is just teasing us again....
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Even with a few cooler spells in the last week or so we are still looking at a very mild start to Autumn.

Geneva +4.11C above average.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn06700_30.gif

Radstadt +4.8C above average.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn11147_30.gif

Those figures may still drift down as we head towards the end of the month given they are still being fed by the especially warm end of August figures, then again an above average end of the month and start to October now looks on the cards for the Alps.

That of course means nothing for how the winter season will look let alone how October will turn out.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
As long as it stays warm and sunny around Faro next week, don't really care Toofy Grin
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looking mild in the Alps heading into October.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
06z suddenly promising cold weather and snow from the 3rd onwards for the E Alps.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I've been checking GFS forecasts for October for past two weeks and I noticed GFS tendency to bring severe cold into Central Europe for forecast days beyond 10 days. Starting from mid september, there were always very cold in forecast for 10+ days. But as those dates come closer, they all went milder than average.
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@matejp, I would take less notice in the GFS when you are looking more than a week away.
I've been looking too and yes there has been some runs suggesting colder temps but the temp difference between the outlying ensembles has been quite large between +15C and -5C at 1500m above sea level, so take them with a pinch of salt. I would say right now as long as temperatures are trending downwards and the spread isn't too great, thats what we want. Madeye-Smiley
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@AthersT: I know that anything beyond 7 days is more or less a guess game. I just wanted to chill @snowheads68 a little (and me too Smile), because I can't wait this season to start Smile.
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Stubai and Kaunertal glaciers open tomorrow!!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Where is the best place to head from 4-8th October for some skiing in the alps? Also what's the weather looking like?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Temperatures now look like dropping to below average from 02/03 October in the Alps.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Could bring some fresh snow down to valley level in Hintertux.
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Latest GFS run suggest below average temperatures from 05/06 October in Central/Eastern Europe. I think Eastern Alps glaciers (Moelltaler, Kaprun) should benefit the most from this forecast...

Also: http://wepowder.com/forum/topic/229951
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Summer weather has definitely left Austria for now. Quite a steep drop in temperatures setting in over next week with snow line below 1500m after some very balmy October weather up to yesterday. Hintertux should see 15 to 20cm at the top after which it looks cold but relatively dry (though windy). Kitzsteinhorn looks like it may get a little more with wetter weather lasting into the week. Temperatures look like staying low till around 11 October at present.
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Much colder here in Wengen today, with heavy showers. FL about 2700 metres. Really big change from the warm sunshine we've been enjoying.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Caught a piece on the BBC Travel show about the demise of the glaciers in Swiss , having never been to one and seen the markers it still comes across as quite worrying on the TV.
Where does all the extra water go?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/n3ct0bs0
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Always a useful sanity check

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/06/21/receding-swiss-glaciers-reveal-4000-year-old-forests-warmists-try-to-suppress-findings/
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Below average temperature (though dry) conditions look like stretching through to mid month at present.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Arapahoe Basin, in Colorado, fired up their snowguns last week.

Somewhat later than normal. Fall has been warm.

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Minor cool spell coming through PNW and BC, parts of North Montana and Wyoming. Maybe a few centimeters above 2,000 meters. Nothing to get excited about.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Grand Targhee had a nice little flutter yesterday according to their FB page

Here's their webcams http://www.grandtarghee.com/the-mountain/area-webcams/

I think they had a bit more than a few centimeters...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Up to 10cm forecast on the highest slopes of Grandvalira - albeit mixed in with a lot of rain. Nothing to excited about but I'm gonna anyway!
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Snow cannons on at Molltaler. Yay.
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This morning's GFS has below average temperatures in the Alps for the length of its run. And increasing chances of snow in the east from this weekend.

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Kitzsteinhorn looking brilliant at the minute on the webcams - http://www.bergfex.com/kitzsteinhorn-kaprun/webcams/
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Snow cannons firing up in VT......

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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
No way^^^^

Far too early surely
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
they were testing them
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12zGFS pops over average after mid month, but is a bit of an outlier. Also adds more snow in eastern Alps from this weekend.
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