 Poster: A snowHead
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Acuweather, already a few degrees above others, have just upped their highs for next week in les gets from 11 to 14! They have rain for next Friday, and avg 9 for most of December, vs historical avg of 4. I know they are wrong more than right, but models must be getting milder.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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That does not read well 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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That said I've never rated accuweather!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @Gaza, Accuweather is just the GFS op run with pictures. Not worth bothering with. |
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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A quick scan of various weather websites this morning all lead to the same conclusion. A return of the azores high and a return to much warmer weather for the foreseeable future. They all suggest the possibility of a weak front next weekend but then probably warming again (that's a long way out I know). Hopefully North facing slopes will hold their snow but I fear it now looks a lot like last year!!
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sun 29-11-15 9:19; edited 1 time in total
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| Quote: |
I fear it now looks a lot like last year!!
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I think it's a bit early to reach that conclusion; it's still November. It was also too early, of course, for recent whoops of joy and declarations that it was not a bit like last year. 
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@zzz, you are such a pessimist. You'll be telling me the Bec Jaune has run out of beer next.
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@under a new name, I think we're safe...... at least until your arrival!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nothing unusual going on out there bouts of cold and warm weather, seems like normal late autumn in the "new global warmed Alps " to me . The really high resorts will gradually open in early Dec , which they seem to be doing , the main stream resorts will take advantage of any cold weather to make snow , they are , and most resorts will try and offer skiing on the first real week of the season , Xmas .
Watching the models at the moment the jet stream seems to raging just North of the Alps for the next few weeks and I would be amazed if Dec turns out to be a dry month , I'm sure there will be at least a couple of Snowfalls at mid mountain range before my trip at Xmas , I'm relaxed .
I never expect too much ar Xmas and New Year it's far too early and if the snows good it's a Bonus and even Better if there's been enough snow to fill in the off piste for some turns , if it's still poor from late Jan then I worry
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Rob Mackley, agree with most of what you say but disagree about xmas week being the first 'real' week of the season. We will already have had 3 weeks of lettings by then. Yet to have a season where people have complained about the on piste snow in December.
For those without kids, and the need to comply with the UK's strict holiday Stasi regulations, then early season, January (which is dead for families), April and early May are probably the best times for season.
Being able to avoid Xmas/new year/half term gives a completely different experience for skiing.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Quote: |
disagree about xmas week being the first 'real' week of the season
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It is in many French resorts, which won't be fully open (or open at all) before then, regardless of snow conditions.
However, I too agree about christmas and new year. People get anxious about "late season" snow in mid March but happily book up for Christmas and New Year which, in historical terms, are much more sketchy, especially if they are interested in off piste.
For me, the best skiing at middling sort of altitudes in France is from the end of the first week of March (when the French holidays end).
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| Quote: |
disagree about xmas week being the first 'real' week of the season
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Kitzbuhel village council decided in about 1933 or something not to advertise themselves as a winter sports resort as it was too early to be sure of snow...
I appreciate Val T is high... but still... Xmas is the first real seasonal week for most/many places.
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You know it makes sense.
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Conditions across the Alps are varied at present with a real difference between the northern and southern side of the Alps.
Long range modelling from CFS and the Met Office had been suggesting a stronger likelihood of +NAO through October and Novmeber. And that is what we've had (I'm not saying this means long range forecasts are always going to be right, just noting how it's played out so far this season).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html
This tends to mean milder conditions and a tendency for more precipitation on the northern side of the Alps.
ZAMG suggests mild conditions remain likely for December with over 60% likelihood of milder temperatures (compared to average or cold). This starts to drop a little (but not by much) as we head into January and February.
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/wetter/produkte-und-services/saisonprognose
It doesn't look too much like last season to me at this stage in the northern Alps (parts of Switzerland and Austria have pretty decent cover for now), but we do have quite a mild spell coming up.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Glencoe overnight got 20cm in the valley and 40cm up top.
Not quite enough yet to open up, but it is getting closer:
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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12zGFS suggest some weak snow showers in the Alps on Friday after some pretty mild weather mid week.
Looking at FI the second week of December starts to show some more interesting options, but obviously that's far too out to take seriously at this point.
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We're up for some clutching at straws, @nozawaonsen,
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Whitegold, Minging rain is forecast for Tuesday so take your anorak if you're planning on hiking up 
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Looking at FI the second week of December starts to show some more interesting options, but obviously that's far too out to take seriously at this point. |
This sounds interesting...
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| pam w wrote: |
| We're up for some clutching at straws, @nozawaonsen, |
why?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Glencoe overnight got 20cm in the valley and 40cm up top.
Not quite enough yet to open up, but it is getting closer:
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I am so happy.
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because there is a lot of mildness about
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Re straw clutching. Doesn't seem too bad to me on the northern side of the Alps at present for November. Indeed some places looking pretty good. Southern Alps less so.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Central Scotland on Sunday...
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ECM takes it cold from 09/10 December, at the tail end of it's run. Hints of that in GFS too. Otherwise mild and sunny from midweek.
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You know it makes sense.
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Whitegold, looks lovely, but where in "Central Scotland"?.
I always thought Pitlochry was the centre of Scotland (middle of the middle bit) - until dad moved up to Blair Atholl 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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So Pam's much mildness has hit the French Alps today with the FL around 3000 meters but coupled with clear skies last night which meant an ice/rain crust at mid altitudes and some seriously refrozen pistes. The rain over the weekend didn't seem to transform into huge snow higher up the hill, just a few cms at most. It rained to 1500/1600 meters where I was and this morning there was fresh snow above that altitude, fairly light powder from 1800 meters, but not huge quantities. Positive take on this, it didn't rain much lower down which one local piste service told me would have been a nightmare due to a mix of: thin snowpack, warm ground and rain - it would have made running the piste bashers over the lower slopes problematic. It looks to be mild and sunny through to Friday. Last week it was ski-able to 1000 meters as long as you stuck to fields but I expect that level to be higher by Friday except on ski runs that have been prepared. There's not really enough snow to resist a major onslaught of mild weather. Conditions will progressively turn spring like on south facing slopes with the sun and clear nights.
Belledonne range this morning:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Unseasonably mild weather for at least the first ten days of December according to this evening's GFS op run.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Raining in St Anton this morning, but snow from the top of the first 'gallery thing' over the pass and still just about snow in Stuben. There's pretty solid amounts of snow from St Christoph up now. Couple of glide avalanches around Alpe Rauz area. No rain in MOntafon, but the snow in the village has melted now.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Unseasonably mild weather for at least the first ten days of December according to this evening's GFS op run. |
😰😰 really didn't want to hear this.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Unseasonably mild weather for at least the first ten days of December according to this evening's GFS op run. |
At least it's meant lots more enquiries for places at Val Thorens.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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it could still change 10 days is along time!!!!
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@stefoy4me, could do, but the ensembles are pretty tight out to 10 December at present.
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ECM pushing colder air into the eastern Alps from 09 December this evening.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| ECM pushing colder air into the eastern Alps from 09 December this evening. |
A bit of hope
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It's still November folks.. Stay frosty (guess the movie)
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| Quote: |
It's still November folks.. Stay frosty (guess the movie)
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Generation Kill?
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