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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Has anyone counted number of posts by weathercam?

The percentage of space taken up with lengthy posts and photos will be even higher

We could rename thread: weather in Serre Chevalier and surrounds
snow report
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Weather in the Dolomites looks very uncertain next week with little consistency between GFS runs other than it looks like something may happen midweek. But then again I can imagine the semi isolated spikes disappearing and it being ok - a sort of Whig interpretation of weather.
snow conditions
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
peanuthead wrote:
Has anyone counted number of posts by weathercam?

The percentage of space taken up with lengthy posts and photos will be even higher

We could rename thread: weather in Serre Chevalier and surrounds


Give the guy a break..... At least he's posting some content which is better than most on here. Doesn't appear that a shortage of time is your biggest problem so if you don't like it ignore it.

Less of the misery all round. It's snowing in the Alps. celebrate it and enjoy!!!
snow conditions
 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
BobinCH wrote:


Less of the misery all round. It's snowing in the Alps. celebrate it and enjoy!!!


+1

I'm liking the look of the GFS 12z (and the 6z before it) for the Tirol next week.
Fairly cool conditions after the weekend, light winds with one day of snow Tuesday.
Possibly the best conditions of the winter so far?
latest report
 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
BobinCH wrote:
peanuthead wrote:
Has anyone counted number of posts by weathercam?

The percentage of space taken up with lengthy posts and photos will be even higher

We could rename thread: weather in Serre Chevalier and surrounds


Give the guy a break..... At least he's posting some content which is better than most on here. Doesn't appear that a shortage of time is your biggest problem so if you don't like it ignore it.

Less of the misery all round. It's snowing in the Alps. celebrate it and enjoy!!!


I agree with Peanuthead he certainly loves a photo of himself and his pal !...
snow report
 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
peanuthead wrote:
Has anyone counted number of posts by weathercam?

The percentage of space taken up with lengthy posts and photos will be even higher

We could rename thread: weather in Serre Chevalier and surrounds


These and other local reports are very informative

If you don't like some of the posts on this thread, look elsewhere, ...its a bit like watching TV, if you don't like what is on a particular channel ; change channel , simple really
latest report
 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
dublin2 wrote:
peanuthead wrote:
Has anyone counted number of posts by weathercam?

The percentage of space taken up with lengthy posts and photos will be even higher

We could rename thread: weather in Serre Chevalier and surrounds


These and other local reports are very informative

If you don't like some of the posts on this thread, look elsewhere, ...its a bit like watching TV, if you don't like what is on a particular channel ; change channel , simple really


No it"s not if the channel is one that interests you but you get the same program over and over it gets boring.....the Serre thread in particular is dominated by someone who appears to own the valley
..
snow conditions
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
MCHP wrote:
BobinCH wrote:
peanuthead wrote:
Has anyone counted number of posts by weathercam?

The percentage of space taken up with lengthy posts and photos will be even higher

We could rename thread: weather in Serre Chevalier and surrounds


Give the guy a break..... At least he's posting some content which is better than most on here. Doesn't appear that a shortage of time is your biggest problem so if you don't like it ignore it.

Less of the misery all round. It's snowing in the Alps. celebrate it and enjoy!!!


I agree with Peanuthead he certainly loves a photo of himself and his pal !...


Interesting first post; criticising another member. rolling eyes rolling eyes

For all those who have an issue with what @Weathercam posts there is a very simple solution. Click the + symbol beside his name and then block him. I suggest you do that rather than whine about his posts.



Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Wed 10-02-16 23:28; edited 1 time in total
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
It's all gone a bit nasty on this thread for some reason?!?!

@MCHP, are you really a new snowHead who's just joined to voice your opinion about one particular poster?

BobinCH wrote:
At least he's posting some content which is better than most on here.


People who spend the whole seasons in the mountains and post photos of their exploits on snowHeads get a lot of adoration for it - the photos and threads wouldn't keep being posted otherwise. I can only speak for myself but, from my point of view, on this particular thread, someone doing something wonderful and amazing in the "pow" is no more or less welcome than the post from the person who's just dished out ££££, can't make sense of the 'wiggles' (sorry Noza I know you hate that term) and who is sh*tting themselves that their once-a-year ski trip and is going to involve no snow. In both cases - would be irritating if it happened too much but should always get a warm-hearted response from the SH community if not overdone.

Anyway, IT'S SNOWING.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@miranda, Is there snow in La Giettaz? Looking fwd to checking it out next week.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Hey guys. Don't worry about weathercam. He loves the attention. No such thing as bad publicity Eh?


Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Thu 11-02-16 0:00; edited 1 time in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@bpirkle, there is indeed snowHead
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
snowheads68 wrote:
12Z looking good, especially for the Dolomites


The Op run looks to be an outlier that is producing those large totals on the map, though there is support for something the first half of next week.

The average of the ensembles suggests no more than 40cm over the next 6 days. Bergfex is going for a max of 15cm on Tues and a few flurries either side of it.

But I was kinda hoping the sun would come out while I was there! Cool
latest report
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
luigi wrote:
snowheads68 wrote:
12Z looking good, especially for the Dolomites


The Op run looks to be an outlier that is producing those large totals on the map, though there is support for something the first half of next week.

The average of the ensembles suggests no more than 40cm over the next 6 days. Bergfex is going for a max of 15cm on Tues and a few flurries either side of it.

But I was kinda hoping the sun would come out while I was there! Cool


I think those maps are for 8 days and may explain the larger numbers. Never seen anything close to what they predict though.

18Z continues to look good..

snow conditions
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
miranda wrote:
It's all gone a bit nasty on this thread for some reason?!?!

@MCHP, are you really a new snowHead who's just joined to voice your opinion about one particular poster?

BobinCH wrote:
At least he's posting some content which is better than most on here.


People who spend the whole seasons in the mountains and post photos of their exploits on snowHeads get a lot of adoration for it - the photos and threads wouldn't keep being posted otherwise. I can only speak for myself but, from my point of view, on this particular thread, someone doing something wonderful and amazing in the "pow" is no more or less welcome than the post from the person who's just dished out ££££, can't make sense of the 'wiggles' (sorry Noza I know you hate that term) and who is sh*tting themselves that their once-a-year ski trip and is going to involve no snow. In both cases - would be irritating if it happened too much but should always get a warm-hearted response from the SH community if not overdone.

Anyway, IT'S SNOWING.


Adoration....really.....oh ok ..
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
[quote="Gaza"]
MCHP wrote:
BobinCH wrote:
peanuthead wrote:
Has anyone counted number of posts by weathercam?

The percentage of space taken up with lengthy posts and photos will be even higher

We could rename thread: weather in Serre Chevalier and surrounds


Give the guy a break..... At least he's posting some content which is better than most on here. Doesn't appear that a shortage of time is your biggest problem so if you don't like it ignore it.

Less of the misery all round. It's snowing in the Alps. celebrate it and enjoy!!!


I agree with Peanuthead he certainly loves a photo of himself and his pal !...


Interesting first post; criticising another member. rolling eyes rolling eyes

For all those who have an issue with what @Weathercam posts there is a very simple solution. Click the + symbol beside his name and then block him. I suggest you do that rather than whine
about his posts.






i am entitled to an opinion so you can go and whine at someone else and be the Thought Police pal...
latest report
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
pam w wrote:
@buchanan101, I partly agree. I think it is helpful for people to post brief reports of CURRENT conditions from all over ... especially of snowfall in the past, don't belong here.


I don't agree, I think it is important to hold the various forecasts to account. For example Meteo France forecast about 50cm of snow for the Chartreuse and Belledonne over the last couple of days. Well the Chartreuse got a couple of cm and rain much higher than expected. Belledonne a bit more at altitude but not the big numbers forecasts. We saw similar stuff posted for Chamonix on this thread for January - 4 or 5 meter dumps when in fact the total snowfall at say, le Brevent, was more like 250cm for the whole month. Knowing that it has rained to 2500 m means anyone going off piste can expect crusts below that level.

Yes it might be a bit French centric this season, perhaps the Austrian locals can post more information? Is there anyone in Italy?
ski holidays
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

I don't agree, I think it is important to hold the various forecasts to account.

Yes, that's what I meant. No snow forecast but you got a few inches? Lots of forecast but nothing happened? I think that's the most interesting aspect of talking about the weather.

Reports and pictures of what's actually happening are essential. And explanations/theories as to why the reality might differ from the forecasts.
snow conditions
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
@davidof, well I'm only 12.5km as the crow flies Cool

And yes forecast(s) again have been so wrong for our "area" this week, but that always seems to be the case, and we live with it.

More snow forecast Friday and into Sat for most of the French Alps with (hopefully) down our end getting slightly more, but as ever wait and see. Though tomorrow I am going to Turin so can report back about what it's like in Via Lattea.

And as for the moans on here, @peanuthead, is like a scratched record, only posting in this thread it seems recently to have a "pop" at me, and then there is the mysterious @MCHP, an obvious dual identity "hurtling" into the furore rolling eyes
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Trouble is, the French resorts are bigger, more people tend to go to them and they tend to be more popular with Brits.. Ergo, the weather in France will feature more strongly in this thread than that in other countries.

That said, I'm off to Austria this year.. *ducks* Laughing
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
Quote:

an obvious dual identity "hurtling" into the furore

Puzzled what's that supposed to mean?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@pam w, As @Gaza, noted about @MCHP,

Interesting first post; criticising another member rolling eyes rolling eyes

That's all, anyway enough on this futility, let's look forward to the weekend and the potential carnage Toofy Grin
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Weathercam, I apologise it was partly my indignation that started this it was not meant to be a personal attack, in fact I aspire to your ability to live in the alps for a whole season and hope to be able to do this myself eventually. My point was that I get email notifications sent direct to my phone to which I usually check hoping to read a promising forecast or some wisdom from @Nozawaonsen, yet I am more often reading about yesterdays tour of the Col du Lauteret - I don't mind reading about local conditions, unforeseen snowfall or indeed analysis of a forecast dump that never arrived. Can we just temper the daily posts on this theme and confine some of them to the Serre thread alone.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Back to the weather. Early next week looking to deliver precip to schladming (north of eastern alps) though gfs has the temps creeping up.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Well the weather has been pretty good this year for the 3Vs I would suggest and this week will have really helped.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Weathercam wrote:
@pam w, As @Gaza, noted about @MCHP,

Interesting first post; criticising another member rolling eyes rolling eyes

That's all, anyway enough on this futility, let's look forward to the weekend and the potential carnage Toofy Grin


Nope you are wrong ....I am not an additional account but a separate "scratched record" ....bit paranoid thinking poor old peanut had multiple accounts...😋😋
snow conditions
 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Pam and @AthersT - points noted.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I've been involved in another forum, where public slaggings of other posters were tolerated and it was enough for me to stop using the forum. Without sounding too sanctimonious I hope that this sort of thread drift will not be supported. I know from experience when a forum gets cliquey/bitchy newbs do not hang around.
snow report
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Guys n Gals , let's take the personal stuff off here, take into Apres if you must or just chill and enjoy the fact it appears to be snowing with more on the way, especially after all the doom and gloom in Nov/Dec/Jan on here!

But next week continues to look unsettled, temps up and down with precipitation perhaps as well. Watching Monte Rosa personally as I am going there, so in a vain attempt to not post about France, the ensemble for Monterosa Smile

Massive outlier but hopefully the trend to fresh snow will arrive!



snow conditions
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Thanks @kitenski i'm off to Monterosa in early March too so very useful
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@kitenski I noticed the heavy snowfall predicted next Tuesday this morning on meteoexploration. 74 cm predicted for Pila. Very Happy Very Happy
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Weathercam,
Quote:

there is the mysterious @MCHP, an obvious dual identity "hurtling" into the furore
I don't, as you appear to be suggesting, use sock puppets.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I like Meteoblue for visual interpretation

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/forecast/14-days/champoluc-champlan_italy_3178915
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
@JoyZipper, It's an outlier though, so still not certain and too far away to get excited about it yet, but keep an eye!

@skribble, you may like this for "a lot on one page" Smile http://greghilton.co.uk/snow_forecast/gfsruns.php?select=Champoluc
snow conditions
 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
The 06z short term outlook for NW alps increases precipitation for the weekend. 15cm Fri night, then a burst of rain to about 1500m Sat lunch before getting 40cm of snow into Sunday. Wind peaks Sat avo at 35kph at 1500m, 65kph at 2000m (which is z800).

There are several choices of mode and models available on Metrociel at the top of the screen, here's the GFS high altitude one for LG:
http://www.meteociel.fr/previsions-haute-altitude/27685/les_gets.htm
Lot of numbers, but really just need to pick out 4 columns: z850 temp, z850 vent, preci and ISO.
Easy to change resort at bottom of page.

If anyone else is keen on tracking the short term (3 day outlook) would be interested to see which model works best, GFS, or WRF, or any other. WRF claims to be more precise (5km vs 50km for GFS) and has a option for hourly breakdown instead of 3 hour windows. Here's the website blurb:
http://www.wrf-model.org/index.php
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under a new name wrote:
I like Meteoblue for visual interpretation

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/forecast/14-days/champoluc-champlan_italy_3178915


Cheers, not seen that before. Do you know if they actually do anything statistically/analytically with the various runs as hinted in their notes? "The forecast is created with „ensemble“ models. Several model runs with varying start parameter are calculated to estimate the predictability of the forecast more precisely."
snow conditions
 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
For comparative purposes WRF 06z has just come out, fri same, sat is colder, no rain, windier (peaks 50/90kph) and only 20cm into sunday
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@kitenski, no I don't, but I find the predictions as accurate as you can expect and better than most other graphical ones. At least around here.
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
skribble wrote:
I've been involved in another forum, where public slaggings of other posters were tolerated and it was enough for me to stop using the forum. Without sounding too sanctimonious I hope that this sort of thread drift will not be supported. I know from experience when a forum gets cliquey/bitchy newbs do not hang around.


Agreed. Grow up, people.

And a big thank you to those who make so much effort to contribute something meaningful to this thread, helping us who do not.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Can we please not screw up the best thread on Snowheads with unnecessary bitching?

Getting the 'results' of the forecasts is pretty useful IMO. I want to know how they translated into reality in different areas.
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