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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
Strong high pressure does look like building in the Atlantic. Here it is on ECM by Monday.





The imagery of that big black hole is very apt...the chances of significant snowfall next week in the W Alps has just fallen into it!! Looking at the wind direction around it...funnelling directly from the Arctic to the Alps...you'll need to wrap up warm on Monday!

How long is the black hole sticking around for?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I just can't take the build up for skiing. I'm going for 12 days and worried will see no fresh in Chamonix.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
high pressure over UK not the alps... depends how it sets up.. how far west it goes into the Atlantic... that would still allow systems to pass over and then down to the Alps... I'm praying too as I'm leaving Saturday for 15 nights in Switzerland and would love fresh snow !
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There is hugely conflicting views on next week.

Bergfex is forecasting bright weather with higher temperatures:-



While www.meteoexploration.com are forecasting seriously low temps:-



Puzzled Puzzled Puzzled


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Wed 4-02-15 23:04; edited 2 times in total
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@Alex A, Thank you. Glad it is not just me praying. My work productivity seriously goes out the window in the build up to skiing.
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I am also heading to Chamonix starting the 14th. While sunny and warm is always fun, I spend most of my time off piste. 12 straight days of sun will tend to firm things up a bit. Anyone know if the high might diminish by then? Any long term forecast calling for snow from 14-21?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Gaza, i would surmise that www.meteoexploration.com has gremlins.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Jonpim,
What do you mean by
Quote:

has gremlins.
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Hope this high pressure does not set in. Going to andermatt on the 13th and praying for snow!
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All this snow then sun forcast. Sound terrible just terrible. If this come off from sat I'm going to be one happy chappy.
Might even go home with a goggle tan
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Gaza wrote:
There is hugely conflicting views on next week.

Bergfex is forecasting bright weather with higher temperatures:-



While www.meteoexploration.com are forecasting seriously low temps:-



Puzzled Puzzled Puzzled


Is someone from meteoexploration.com watching this thread? wink wink



Still very different from Bergfex with much lower freezing levels.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Gaza, maybe no need to keep posting screenshots of it? Neither GFS nor ECM support the temperatures being suggested in your post. I'd bin it.

Snow really piling up on the Italian side of the Alps by tomorrow lunchtime and Piedmont looks like picking up a lot in the next couple of days.

12z Thursday http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=S&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=30#model

And still going by Friday morning

06z Friday http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=S&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=48#model

18z GFS op run has snow arriving in Austria Sunday through Tuesday.

High pressure looks like taking charge as we go through next week with temperatures rising mid week accompanid by sunshine. This evening's GFS has some much colder temperatures by the following Sunday in the eastern Alps, but that's a bit far out.

Should be nice.

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
It is snowing REALLY well in Piemonte...guess where I go next week? Ohhh yes, just for once, fresh snow!!

Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Just past half way in our week in La Plagne and none of the forecasts looking even 24hours ahead have been remotely right. We have had very little snow and lots of sunshine, which for us piste cruisers is perfect. The forecasts were all saying snow all week.

Piste conditions are superb by the way!

snowHead
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Chris Bish, snow has looked more likely this week on the southern and then eastern side of the Alps.

For the rest of the week you can see this clearly below. Over the coming eight days below average precipitation to the west and north. Above average to the south and east.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Temperatures warming up a but in the second half of next week, generally cold up until then.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Next week looks to be dominated by high pressure.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Thank you very much, now you only have to find an onsen in Meribel - then everything is perfect. Idea
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Let us hope that high pressure doesn't stay longer than next week. At what should we have know roughly what it plans to do? Skiing for two weeks and wouldn't be too happy if that didn't change.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looks like my osteopath and the trapped nerve in my shoulder will be be pleased that I'll be skiing groomed piste rather than powder next week in the Vercors. Light winds, sunshine, cruising around with my wife and kids? I can live with that Smile
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@Gaza, maybe no need to keep posting screenshots of it? Neither GFS nor ECM support the temperatures being suggested in your post. I'd bin it.


Didn't realise this is a private thread where posting screenshots of wildly differing forecasts for the same location was frowned upon. rolling eyes rolling eyes
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Let it shine ! Little Angel
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@levster777, Gremlins wink
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Snowing heavily in Tignes Very Happy Very Happy
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Just when we thought that it could not get better here in the Pyrenees after over 2 metres of fresh this weekend, the sun popped out this morning with yet another 20cm of fresh on top to play in.

It has been an epic few days - though some may have preferred not so much snow. Now the high pressure over the UK is going to give us warmer and more settled weather just in time for the French holidays - it is going to be manic for the next 3 weeks Toofy Grin Toofy Grin
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@stewart woodward, no snow here in La Plagne Sad
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Strong winds are causing chaos on the roads on the north side of Lake Geneva, causing massive snow drifts on the roads from the big dump at the weekend. I, and many others got stuck on pretty major roads covered by drifted snow and had to put my chains on even though the road was perfectly flat.

God knows where the ploughs are, they are generally pretty quick to appear after a snowfall, but seem to have disappeared.
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Gaza wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Gaza, maybe no need to keep posting screenshots of it? Neither GFS nor ECM support the temperatures being suggested in your post. I'd bin it.


Didn't realise this is a private thread where posting screenshots of wildly differing forecasts for the same location was frowned upon. rolling eyes rolling eyes


I reckon if you had looked at the underlying data you would have recognised the problem.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
An extended period of relatively mild, dry and sunny weather looks likely from the middle of next week. Shades. On.

The Arlberg



Chamonix

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
How long is that extended period likely to last?@nozawaonsen,
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Which, if any of the models, have proven to be the most accurate this season.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
levster777 wrote:
How long is that extended period likely to last?@nozawaonsen,


+1
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Chris Brookes,

It's going to breakdown on the 26th Feb for precisely 2 days of heavy snow prior to my arrival in Innsbruck on the 28th wink
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Darn
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Does that show milder weather until the 18th, with the possibility of some snow over 18-19th, or have I completely mis-read that chart??? Puzzled
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Lots of snow yesterday in Gressoney, Italy

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152638286301198&set=oa.441862112637901&type=1&theater
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Fine weather arriving precisely 3 days too early... will it last in to w/c 15th in Salzburgerland?
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Quote:

Does that show milder weather until the 18th, with the possibility of some snow over 18-19th


+1

Two weeks trip planned and potential for no snow. Doesn't sound good.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
It's a long way off and of course subject to change but across the models there appears to be a blocking high pressure over the uk which usually means zilch in the way of precipitation for france and western Europe. How long it will stay before breaking down or which way it will move is very uncertain. But they can be stubborn blighters. Be interesting to see in the next few days. If it does move back west we may let something more interesting back in. If not it will be settled average temp days and cold nights.
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@Arteta10, thanks for the answer
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@Arteta10, I take it that the blocking high pressure will be dictating many of the weather predictions on all the models? Is that likely?
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@ben76, Ignore anything after 7 days time - it can be used as a general guide but in all probability anything forecast after 5 days usually has a low probability, but is the most likely scenario of a large number of unlikely scenario's. any small deviations will change the forecast an unmeasurable amount.

@levster777, yes it is likely that the settled weather forecast is being dictated by the blocking high, when the blocking high dissipates or is affected by another weather system then the forecast should change for better or for worse.
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