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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
howiet wrote:
Been snowing here in bourg d'oisans all day. The heaviest it's been over the last few days


I saw your very scientific snow-depth measuring device on fb earlier wink
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Solid black line and no green on the latest GFS run for Zermatt. Whats that all about Puzzled
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
How often does it snow in Venice? If the latest Snowforecast map ever came true it could be an interesting day for me to be flying out of Venice airport on Monday 9 Feb.
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After all this snow in the French alps what is next on the radar? Are we in for another storm anytime soon or blue skies and sun. Say 1-2 weeks time or is it far to early to tell. Apologies if this is a stupid question. I feel like I'm missing out on something incredible at the moment. I guess that is the life when you only ski two weeks a year.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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levster777 wrote:
After all this snow in the French alps what is next on the radar? Are we in for another storm anytime soon or blue skies and sun. Say 1-2 weeks time or is it far to early to tell. Apologies if this is a stupid question. I feel like I'm missing out on something incredible at the moment. I guess that is the life when you only ski two weeks a year.


I think we are in for a quiet 10 days but it can all change.

Blocking high anyone?
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The North side of the Alps has been the focus of attention recently. Still some snow pushing through the Arlberg today.

WRF 15z Mon http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=21#model

But it looks like the South will be where the action is in the coming week with low pressure dominating the Mediterranean, before it swings up into Austria.



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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Wow, the demarkation of that storm is so sharp; looking at the indented corner of Austria somewhere like Zell am See may be getting 50 to 75cm but Kitzbuhel just 10 to 15cm only a few km away.

Still that was the way last winter - northern Italy received huge amounts just miles from Kitzbuhel which had it's worst snowfall for years.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Sadly the avalanche toll so far this season in Austria has reached 16. Compared to 13 for the whole of last season.

http://m.kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/lawinen-forderten-bereits-16-menschenleben/111.347.897
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Same for France and Switzerland. Article in Times today:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4341246.ece
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Quote:

I feel like I'm missing out on something incredible at the moment


Yup, high winds at alitude, lifts closed due avalanche danger, off piste on gradients >30 degrees extremely ill advised, dreadful general visibility...

You are indeed. snowHead
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Very good point. I just like lots of snow Happy)
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
levster777 wrote:
Very good point. I just like lots of snow Happy)


I like lots of snow until I arrive, then lots of sun.

Snow needs to stop by 13th Feb.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
buchanan101 wrote:
Wow, the demarkation of that storm is so sharp; looking at the indented corner of Austria somewhere like Zell am See may be getting 50 to 75cm but Kitzbuhel just 10 to 15cm only a few km away.

Still that was the way last winter - northern Italy received huge amounts just miles from Kitzbuhel which had it's worst snowfall for years.


Your faith in a) the forecast and b) the co-operation of the actual weather is very touching wink
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
A 74 year old man was rescued after circa 8-9 hours part-buried in an avalanche
His body temp was measured at 29 deg C


http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/74-Jaehriger_ueberlebt_neun_Stunden_unter_Lawine-Selbst_ausgegraben-Story-437214

http://www.osttirol-online.at/aktuelles/welt-news/93802-steirer-wartete-in-lawine-acht-stunden-auf-rettung.html Shocked
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Anyone know of a thread like this anywhere that does for BC, Canada. Looking to keep my eye on things in the Whistler/Pemberton area.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@carled, Your back?.... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, I bow for you great weather master!

Again you have found perfect weather for our holiday. Lots of snow and may be blue sky.

Will the atlantic highpressure stay next week? snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Zorrac wrote:
@carled, Your back?.... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


My back what? wink

Yeah, still around. Still a grammar nazi and still amused by those that think the weather forecast can ever be accurate.

Haven't been on snow since 2010 but that's all about to change and I'll be causing carnage on the slopes once more at the end of Feb in Sauze and the surrounding areas.
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Mwahahaha today in Montafon!

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clarky999 wrote:
Mwahahaha today in Montafon!



Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad

Yes, jealous, muchly. snowHead
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@carled, Sorry about my grammar,................. scientist....can't help it... Shocked Shocked Shocked

Hopefully the snow will be good for you as it was for me in the Grand Massif last Saturday...the morning was bliss Very Happy Very Happy
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
buchanan101 wrote:
Wow, the demarkation of that storm is so sharp; looking at the indented corner of Austria somewhere like Zell am See may be getting 50 to 75cm but Kitzbuhel just 10 to 15cm only a few km away.

Still that was the way last winter - northern Italy received huge amounts just miles from Kitzbuhel which had it's worst snowfall for years.


And the same down here in the Southern Alps, where here we have not scored so well, and then compare that to the other side of the Lautaret and further North to Alpe Du Huez where they have had shed loads.

In fact I've never known it snow for so long (48hrs) and yet end up with such feeble amounts as it just did not "dump" here, and all we had was very fine snow, so after five or six hours I had all of a couple of cm on the van.

It's so ironic with it being too damn dangerous up top and yet not a lot down below in the trees down from 1900 or so Sad

Was with the son of the owner in our local shop today, and he has lost two very good friends in two separate incidents, and since New Year's it's nine fatalities just in our area.

And many are treating the area with a great deal of respect, and we've not been touring for ten days now (ok I had a little easy climb yesterday) since we dislodged some stuff at way less that 30 degrees and there was a big slide as we came down that was not there when we went up (see hairy Friday thread in off piste section).

We were saying we might actually wait for spring snow to be sure, though we're packing some skins maybe for tomorrow and will go off the back of resort down a face 20% that then goes in to trees to 1950 and then we'll skin back up into resort to the lift up a chemin.

And forecast is for more dribbles over the next few days from the looks of things here in Serre.

The SOPB crew must be getting nervous though that's still three weeks away!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@carled, you're back...... snowHead Benvenuto.
Here in the dolomites it's cold and sunny and fabulous. No snowfalling thankfully. Pistes in brilliant shape.
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During the last 48 to 72 hours the central Pyrenees has seen a massive 2 metres of fresh dump down on what was an already OK base. The result of this has been coordinated evacuations of a number of ski stations where the avalanche risk has been 5/5.

Today there was a brief respite, and the sun came out and the winds dropped. However little could open because of the massive digging out that needed to take place first.

Most of the people on the mountain were locals, however with sadness I can say that in one of our neighbouring resorts a group of 5 all between the age of 20 and 30 were caught in an avalanche resulting in the death of a young man and the serious injury to another. This group were all locals, the guy that died was the son of a member of my cycling club. I love powder, but there are times when prudence must prevail.

More snow is due overnight and tomorrow, but not to the extent of the weekend. Our thoughts are with the family of the lost. So please take care out there

Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad
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pam w wrote:

Here in the dolomites it's cold and sunny and fabulous. No snowfalling thankfully. Pistes in brilliant shape.


Just what was needed after last year! Enjoy! Very Happy
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Thinking of cheeky last minute trip to Cervinia (or broader Aosta) with first day's skiing Thursday. Snowforecast saying good things:

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Cervinia/6day/mid

But wepowder suggesting Aosta dump is contingent on the storm moving over that way:

http://wepowder.com/weblog/5765/PA-%2310-Time-for-the-south!

I'm going at short notice so its the conditions that are drawing me, I prob will be able to go some other time over the next few weeks / months, including next Wed / Thurs, so its pretty important I get it right!

Anyone any thoughts on whether Aosta is going to get it?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
so what chance a blocking high starting mid/late next week?

snowforecast hints at one starting, then doesn't, then does...
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@buchanan101,
Quote:

so what chance a blocking high starting mid/late next week?


What would this mean for the weather? What is a good resource for some basic weather information.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
levster777 wrote:
@buchanan101,
Quote:

so what chance a blocking high starting mid/late next week?


What would this mean for the weather? What is a good resource for some basic weather information.


Hopefully a long spell of fine weather!

You can get six day forecasts free at snow-forecast.com and nine days at bergfex.com I believe these use different models behind them, so give two different forecasts (I think there are two weather modelling systems in use by everyone, so these two sites present forecasts in accessible format. Both give various maps etc. Good places to start
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Thanks. I have been checking those ones out.

I'm not sure I want a long spell of fine weather. I can't imagine the powder will stay about till I go in the 11th although I could be wrong.

I was hoping for some more snow for some powder skiing.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
buchanan101 wrote:
so what chance a blocking high starting mid/late next week?

snowforecast hints at one starting, then doesn't, then does...


Difficult to say for certain. High pressure looks to be centred just to the west of the UK by the end of the weekend. This should exert its influence across to the alps. However its possible weather fronts could still come round the top of the high and affect the Eastern Alps. What happens to this high pressure afterwards is still uncertain. If it moves East then it will very likely block any weather fronts from reaching the alps.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Both forecasts show snow on and off up until the 11th...at least in Austria which has a big fall on the 10th according to Bergfex, but fine weather according to snow-forecast!

I go for piste skiing - as most people do - so powder doesn't bother me, just not slush or freeze/thaw conditions please. Plenty of snow on piste.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Thinking of flying tomorrow, flights to Bergamo cheap but I haven't looked at the others - anyone any ideas as to where best fresh prospects are?
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levster777 wrote:
@buchanan101,
Quote:

so what chance a blocking high starting mid/late next week?


What would this mean for the weather? What is a good resource for some basic weather information.


As others have said Bergfex is good for 9 days out but the reality is Day 9 seldom turns out to be particularly accurate.

I like this site:- http://www.meteoexploration.com/forecasts/La-Plagne - It gives good detail in a clear and easy to understand way. It also features the ensembles to help gauge the probability.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Strong high pressure does look like building in the Atlantic. Here it is on ECM by Monday.



But before that there is a low pressure system in the Mediterranean which will bring unsettled weather (and snow) to the southern side of the Alps before the end of the week and subsequently up into Austria.



Next week currently looks more settled.
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@nozawaonsen,

Does this mean there is a chance of some nice snow in Chamonix from the 15th Feb?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
By some I mean a lot
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Damn - heading to PDS for Friday 13th. Was hoping for some more of the good stuff for some off-piste adventures.

Oh well, will wax and edge the piste skis, and put my drinking boots on for some apres. It's still going to be great fun!
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@Harry Flashman, Isn't next week the stable week? You are out after so I guess anything can happen. Long time away.
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I think I misunderstood based on the strong high pressure. The strong high pressure will prevent snowfall. I was thinking initially it would cause snowfall.
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