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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Ricklovesthepowder, I think we've moved on to worrying about the driving conditions!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
From WRF model, this would be nice for French Alps on Saturday

accum Sat
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Great news for those going out next week.
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Surprised to see no accumulation on eastern Alps- any thoughts on that?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@clong, think that's just Saturday's snow? Not sure, but Eastern Alps probably gets some on Sunday.
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Ah okay thanks. Do we have a link for the source of that data?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Happy Christmas all snow heads! Very Happy
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Tirol LWD from this morning. Avalanche risk rising to 3.
https://lawine.tirol.gv.at/en/bulletin/

"The first bout of light precipitation brought 5 to 10 cm of fresh fallen snow over widespread areas in Tirol.High altitude northwesterly winds were strong, well above transport velocity, thus bringing about relatively small-sized snowdrift accumulations repeatedly. New fallen and newly drifted snows now blanket a very irregular old snowpack surface: to some extent hardened and compressed, in other places quite loosely packed. In addition, faceted, loose snow crystals are frequently embedded deep inside the snowpack between hardened crusts. These layers are potential bed surfaces for avalanches.

Alpine Weather Forecast (ZAMG-Weather Service Innsbruck)

Weather: It kept us waiting a long time, but the far-reaching northwesterly current has finally shifted, freeing the airways for arctic air masses to come our way. These masses are now accumulating against the barrier of the Alps, leading to snow showers down to low altitudes. On the southern flank of the Alps, north-foehn conditions prevail. This wintery weather will abide for a longer period. Mountain weather today: In the Northern Limestone Alps and from the Zillertal over the Kitzbühel Alps to the Tauern Ridge, approximately 15 to 25 cm of fresh fallen snow is anticipated by tomorrow morning, in isolated cases somewhat more. Less new fallen snow, about 5 to 10 cm, is expected from the Silvretta to the southern Ötztal Alps. The Dolomites and Carnic Alps will get no snow. On the northern flank of the Alps the visibility will be poor; in the Southern Alps, bright spells are anticipated. Temperature at 2000 m: -9 degrees; at 3000 m: -17 degrees. Moderate to strong northwesterly winds at high altitude."
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To anyone heading out tomorrow or Sunday, better pack those thermals, it looks like its going to be Baltic next week!! Skullie
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WRF for tomorrow

Snow already building up in France pre breakfast.

06z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=36#model

Snow heavy across the west (especially French Alps) pushing into the Arlberg.

09z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=39#model

Still heavy in French Alps (strengthening in Arlberg)

12z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=42#model

Pushing into NE Italy

15z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=45#model

Still going in France strengthening in Dolomites

18z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=48#model

Sunday early hours heavy in Slovenia

03z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=48#model
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Thanks for the maps with the pretty colours Nozawaonsen. I especially like the look of the upcoming snow for France snowHead Looks like Val D and surrounds should do pretty well.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Well, @nozawaonsen, if that pans out just as your lovely charts suggest, it will truly be a wonderful start to the New Year for Tarentaise.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Looks like the best part of a week of very cold temperatures in the Alps.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Been enjoying fresh powder in ski amade today and some heavy snow showers still about and now down to -10 at 2000m. Long may it continue this way.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Extensive weather warnings across Switzerland for Saturday now being issued by SwissMeteo. A combination of high winds and heavy snowfall even at low levels will mean blizzards and very poor driving conditions at times:

http://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/home.html?tab=alarm
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
SLF's evening update. Watch out for rocks buried just beneath the new snowfall if you head off or between the pistes!

In some regions increase in avalanche danger

"The ongoingly sparse amounts of snow comprising the snowpack continues to make route selection rather challenging for all those participating in backcountry winter sports in outlying terrain, heightening the hazards of injury from collisions with rocks.

Fresh snow

- Northern flank of the Alps from the Grimsel region to the Alpstein, as well as in Praettigau: 15 to 30 cm; in the Glarner Alps as much as 50 cm.

- Northern flank of the Alps from the Vaud Alps to the Grimsel region, as well as northern Grisons (not including Praettigau), in Silvretta and in Samnaun: 5 to 10 cm.

- In the remaining regions, it remained predominantly dry"

Weather forecast through Saturday

Skies will be overcast. From the west, snowfall is expected to set in.

Fresh snow

- Valais, western and central sectors of northern flank of the Alps: 20 to 40 cm
- Eastern sector of northern flank of the Alps: 10 to 20 cm
- Grisons, Ticino: maximum 10 cm

Wind

Winds are expected to intensify during the course of the day, in the afternoon blowing at strong to storm velocity from westerly directions.

Outlook through Monday

Sunday


In western and northern regions, skies will be overcast and an additional 10 to 20 cm of fresh fallen snow is anticipated
. In southeastern regions it will turn increasingly sunny. The avalanche danger is expected to increase somewhat further in the areas of precipitation.

Monday

Only a small amount of snowfall is anticipated. It will remain windy. The avalanche situation is expected to remain treacherous."
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
So a cold week in the Alps coming up...


http://youtube.com/v/eIcdwwr-7K4

Next Tuesday and Wednesday (New Year's Eve) looking particularly cold.

Looks like the weekend snow will clear by Monday morning, but a further band of snow (not so heavy) is following closely behind and should arrive in the Alps Monday night Tuesday morning.

May be some further light snow showers on Wednesday, but the end of the week looks pretty sunny at the moment (whihc should be very nice, but watch out as the blue sky day after snow is often when people push the risk limits).
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
"SLF's evening update. Watch out for rocks buried just beneath the new snowfall if you head off or between the pistes! "

good advice as there is no or very little base under this new snow Shocked
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@Dabber, too true, my skis took a beating today, 20cms of fresh but little base meant for interesting off piste conditions.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Just woke up to heavy snow here in Geneva. It's going to be an interesting drive up to Verbier today to say the least!
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Snowing here. In Val d isere.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Very heavy snow in chambery this morning. Good luck to everyone travelling down today!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Savoie-route.com have said that snow chains are obligatory to access a resort - police checks in force. 36000 cars between Albertville and Moutiers (including me!)today. "I see troub.........
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Heavy snow at lake level where we live between Geneva and Lausanne. My dog is very excited Smile
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Snowed again overnight in Salzburgerland. Snow chains are required on the Gerlos Pass and a couple other key routes between resorts such as the Dientener-Sattel. More snow and very cold temperatures with strong west to north westerly winds forecast for today and the next couple of days. Frau Hölle has finally arrived in Ski Amadé!
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Snowing hard in Chamonix at 1,100m, >10cms so far Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Snowing likely at Vogel in Slovenia even at 500m- metro centre looks great for tonight.

Only one little piste is open though which is 120m in length. Oh dear!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Snowing hard outside and windy. The Les Menuires website says the road is still blocked from St Martin to Menuires, but also says Menuires to St Martin is cleared. The blockage was caused by an earlier accident. It also says chains are required.

Am I bothered? Well, my train from Moutiers is not till tonight. So plenty of time for things to be sorted out, or if the big snowfall continues, to get a little bit chaotic.


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Sat 27-12-14 11:23; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Good to also see a few spikes in the ensembles for the period 7-9th Jan too so there are hopes of a consolidatory (if that's a real word) dump to be laid on top of today's snow after that's been skied/bashed flat Smile
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@red 27, hopefully more snow sooner than that. Forecast reliability beyond few days is poor so anything could happen
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looked out the window in Switzerland this morning and a big dump, no need for inaccurate overhyped models just look out the window!!

As of yesterday most resorts were still closed except for the glaciers or higher up ones.So hoping for more
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snowfall will weaken tomorrow and by Monday the sun should be out. A further weaker band of snow looks likely on Monday evening into Tuesday morning though focussed on the eastern Alps.

Alpes D'Huez



Arlberg



After that sunny weather really starts to take a grip with high pressure taking control until the end of the week.

Two things to consider will be cold temperatures mid week (below -25C at times) and potentailly strong winds. So it could feel chilly.

But all in all not a bad time to be dropping into the Alps.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Snowing in Aosta - much more than forecast
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Just happened upon the Augustine Arch webcam in Aosta. Looks like a real decent dump.
We have had quite a bit of snow here in Geneva but melting very quickly. The earth in my backyard still very warm
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red 27 wrote:
Good to also see a few spikes in the ensembles for the period 7-9th Jan too so there are hopes of a consolidatory (if that's a real word) dump to be laid on top of today's snow after that's been skied/bashed flat Smile


06z keeps that period snowy too, though clearly too far out to take seriously.

@peanuthead, light snow pushing into the Alps on Sunday on the 06z too.

@under a new name, nice.
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So they (the modals/forecasters) always over estimate Snowfall then

40 cms plus ( conservative) at Ste Foy so far
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@Rob Mackley, they get it wrong both ways.
Just remember days like this when forecast was rather less than actually delivered.
There will be other days when lots of snow forecast and none actually arrives.

Interesting on other threads how so many seem to be taken by surprise, when lotsa snow was predicted and so few seem to have taken any sensible measures to deal with it.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
5 hour drive from Geneva to Verbier today but looked far worse in the other direction. Feel very sorry for everyone who had a snowless Xmas week then got zapped with a nightmare transfer day.
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philipb wrote:
@Ricklovesthepowder, I think we've moved on to worrying about the driving conditions!


I hate it when someone is proved right.
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Significant snowfall across the Pyrenees all day. Temperatures plunging tonight and tomorrow bringing the snow down to 400m ish. The forecast 100kph winds seem to have abated so tomorrow may well be a great day with the snow still falling.

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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