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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

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@buchanan101, bit puzzled by your suggestion that Austria has had more need than other alpine countries to use snow cannons?

Anyway some snow for Austria overnight

Sun 00z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=30#model

Temperatures look like dropping quite a bit over night before rising steeply as we go into next week. They look like peaking on Tuesday before cooling to below average come Boxing Day. ECM would then like to warm it up again though GFS is pretty solid on what could be a fairly extended cool period.

Still no game changing snow on the horizon, but colder would be a start.
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I am afraid it is very poor for the foreseeable future. Have a look at this GFS prediction for Chambery

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=LFLB

850Mb temperatures i.e about 1550m are ok at times there is just not enough precipitation as seen in

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html
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@nozawaonsen, how warm are we talking for the Alps next week?
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if that pans out then anyone out in the next 2-3 weeks is not going to see anything decent.

had hope for a big change boxing day but seems thats unlikely now
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Put it this way. Around Geneva (PDS, GM, Megeve, La Clisaz etc) you have to go above 2000 m to find snow. Problem is that these places are generally well below that elevation. The fact that it is still like spring (12 degrees here as I write) will drive the snow to the top of Mont B over the next few days
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@buchanan101, bit puzzled by your suggestion that Austria has had more need than other alpine countries to use snow cannons?

Anyway some snow for Austria overnight

Sun 00z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=30#model

Temperatures look like dropping quite a bit over night before rising steeply as we go into next week. They look like peaking on Tuesday before cooling to below average come Boxing Day. ECM would then like to warm it up again though GFS is pretty solid on what could be a fairly extended cool period.

Still no game changing snow on the horizon, but colder would be a start.


Just recent experience - I guess it's the old "is it ok that Austrian resorts are lower because they are further east" issue?

How does kg/m2 convert in to cm of snow? Isn't snow about 500kg/m3 density (depending) So 1kg/m2 is 2mm?, 5kg/m3 = 1cm? Seems about right.

I think we are all looking forward to a Xmas present as colder weather and snow
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@stefoy4me, based on models, it may not look likely snow will come next week, but probably not accutate yo say unlikely either. Just uncertain
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@nozawaonsen, colder & cannons would indeed help. I am assuming the necessary reservoirs are at max after the summer?
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On snow-forecast.com, Saalbach mid station shows temps up to 9C on 23rd after 7cm of snow tonight, back below freezing on Xmas day, and some amount of snow (OK, only 12cm) arriving 27th, 28th, but temp down to -7C consistently (and -4C at the bottom).

Snow-forecast always seem to overestimate snow though, but the temp predictions seem to be in line with other sites. (Though I guess they all use the same sources). Snow making at least should start in earnest after xmas.
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@Ricklovesthepowder, there's a bit of an east west spilt. Tomorrow looks cool in the eastern Alps, freezing levels below 1000m, but in the west already above 2000m. It'll peak on Tuesday when you could see freezing levels in some places, more likely the western Alps, top 3000m, in the east it'll peak between 2500 and 3000m.

Two good things. Sunday night is winter solstice. So with short days and low angle the impact of the sun is considerably less than it would be later in the season. Secondly by the end of the week it looks like being much much colder with freezing levels between 500-1000m by the end of Christmas Day. It's unclear at this stage how long colder weather will last.

@buchanan101, most of Austria had relatively poor snow last season (not all - Ost Tirol had huge snowfall), but over a longer period I wouldn't say it has been much worse than anywhere else.

1Kg/m2 roughly equates to 1cm of snow on the ground (roughly).


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Sat 20-12-14 12:48; edited 1 time in total
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under a new name wrote:
@nozawaonsen, colder & cannons would indeed help. I am assuming the necessary reservoirs are at max after the summer?


Where you can see reservoirs on webcams they look full - be pretty lax if they weren't, but anyway they are pumped to fill - you don't get any natural flow in to a reservoir at the top of a mountain!
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@buchanan101, not always the case. I believe that Avoriaz certainly brings/brought some of its water from the lac. A few years ago after a dry simmer they only had enough reserves for a "single shot" - whatever that means.

I'm reasonably sure that the reservoir for lindarets is near the bottom of the race piste. As is the "snow factory".
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under a new name wrote:
@buchanan101, not always the case. I believe that Avoriaz certainly brings/brought some of its water from the lac. A few years ago after a dry simmer they only had enough reserves for a "single shot" - whatever that means.

I'm reasonably sure that the reservoir for lindarets is near the bottom of the race piste. As is the "snow factory".


I realised I may be generalising. I guess they can pump up water in slow time to a reservoir at the stop and then use gravity to do a lot of the work for them when they have to run a lot of cannons at once.

And geology - much easier to build reservoirs at the top of some Austrian mountains (seen reservoirs at the top in kitz and saalbach) than more peaky French mountains.

I find the snow making quite interesting; in theory you can make snow above freezing...
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under a new name wrote:
they only had enough reserves for a "single shot"


I know how they feel Embarassed
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@Juddernaut, you don't have to go to 2000 for snow though clearly the best is all above that. I was surprised to see some snow on the ground in megeve last night and les saisies has 10 pistes open below 2000 courtesy of artificial snow. I shan't be bothering though. Will stick to my chalet maid and transfer driving role and await the arrival of winter.
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@pam w, happy to ski below 2k. Can you tell me where (within 100km of Geneva)? An overcrowded ribbon of man made at Avoriaz doesn't count.
BTW, I thought Megeve was closed? On the webcam I saw some hikers at Rochebrune and that was it.
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Yes, I expect megeve is closed. Some snow along the side of the roads not a lot of use.
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12z GFS would bring some cheer if it played out...



Courtesy of cold temperatures and light snow on Boxing Day and further snow and cold temperatures next weekend.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
12z GFS would bring some cheer if it played out...



Courtesy of cold temperatures and light snow on Boxing Day and further snow and cold temperatures next weekend.


Very similar to what ZAMG has been saying for the last 24-48 hours so fingers crossed.
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The other nice thing about the 12z GFS is it is not quite so mild on Tuesday. Still very warm for the time of year, but FLs look like they might be a couple of hundred metres lower.
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@nozawaonsen, lets hope the temperature drop continues.
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Saturday 27th becomes pivotal for the Haute Savoie with 30mm ppt with subzero 850mb temps for Chambery so maybe 60mm for high ground and that turns into about 30cm of snow which will help a lot. seems to fade away south of the Taranteraise



http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=LFLB/


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html
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A lot of snow forecast for the 28th in Zermatt. Hope this is more widespread Very Happy
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Prays about to be answered ?????
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I would still be pretty cautious at this stage.

[edit: low pressure next weekend less organised on 18z and as a result less snow, so still uncertainty, which you'd expect a week out).
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GFS and ECMWF giving very different results even just a few days ahead at the moment. As Noza said.. a lot of uncertainty, but seems to be even more than usual right now..
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Got to be a change of fortune........so many peoples week hanging on it.

Fingers crossed the forecast favours snow and cold
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Snowing in Altenmarkt right now and has done so most of the night. Skiing at Wagrain today, the season really starts next Saturday, nobody is too worried here yet about the weather, but the inaccurate blanket reporting of no snow is worrying for the people whose income depends on this industry. Lots of cancellations occurring due to inaccurate panic reporting.
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@Samerberg Sue, unfortunately sensible news reporting doesn't sell. rolling eyes
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Cold here in La Plagne - show cannons firing away on every piste.
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Looks like cannons are on in Samoens too..... New problem 2 teenage daughters who won't get out of bed !
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buchanan101 wrote:
under a new name wrote:
@nozawaonsen, colder & cannons would indeed help. I am assuming the necessary reservoirs are at max after the summer?


Where you can see reservoirs on webcams they look full - be pretty lax if they weren't, but anyway they are pumped to fill - you don't get any natural flow in to a reservoir at the top of a mountain!


That's not the case. Certainly at Val Thorens anyway. The cost of pumping vast quantities of water up a mountain would be crazy.


If you go there in the summer, what takes a bit of getting used to is the sound of rushing water in all the streams and rivers that slow to a trickle in the winter. Just walking through at the altitude where the grass no longer grows and it is just heather, it is like walking on a sponge. The sound of the full flow is so loud and so pervasive that I find it difficult sleeping. It's one of the biggest differences between summer and winter there.

All the melt water from the winter has to get down the mountain. Some of this is diverted into the series of man made lakes that have been built to supply water to the village and supply the snow cannons. The lakes are a feature in the summer with picnic tables and most are on the mountain bike trails.

You can see the stream feeding them and the stream with the overflow.

I am sure that this would be the case in other areas and not just the 3vs as well.
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Well that's it, winter solstice. Days are getting longer. The snow is starting to thaw. Looking forward to summer and the beach now.
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@davidof, are you a marmot?
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@davidof, you're a few hours early. It's not until 22:03 GMT this evening:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30549149
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davidof wrote:
Well that's it, winter solstice. Days are getting longer. The snow is starting to thaw. Looking forward to summer and the beach now.

As we are now approaching late season, what resorts will be best to exploit the last of the late season snow we might get in the next few weeks?
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Only thing for sure is many days of sunny skies and mild temperature ahead then hopefully a change. But no guarantee.

More concerning maybe many clear nights ahead on very thin snowpack. Much thinner than last years. There must be big risk of snow transforming to faceted snow which will be extremely dangerous off piste until buried by at least a metre.

Any views from those knowledgeable? @davidof, ?
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Quote:

Only thing for sure is many days of sunny skies and mild temperature ahead


No. Not really.

Maybe three days. It's already cooling by Chritsmas eve and it's still cool in the eastern Alps today.

Looks like light snow arriving later on Christmas eve into Boxing Day. Heavier snow next weekend.

[and the ramping of avalanche risk is unhelpful]
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Once again, next weekend looks like it could be the turning point (although the forecasts have indicated that for the past 3 weeks).
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Snow-forecast showing temps plummeting and reasonable amount of snow for next weekend in 3 valleys. Hoping it comes true for those going out ny week and it's widespread across the rest of the alps.

Fingers crossed.
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