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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The SLF have just started issuing their snow depth anomaly maps for Switzerland this season. No surprise that conditions are well below average:

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
It has been raining here in La Plagne since about 11am, and snow is melting fast down here in 1800.
Had to get the bus back coz pistes down from Plagne Centre all shut.
Higher pistes were ok
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looking out the window here in Schweiz it is depressing, forecast is for more rain and sun. Christmas is a write off, luckily I booked some other holiday. When I moved here in 2012 it was blanket snow in November!!!
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@diarmuidlynch, you live in Switzerland and are depressed because it's a slow start to the season. Come on! You'll still be there when it's blizzarding in April. You'll have blanket snow again next November. Would you have sympathy for someone from Malaga who is depressed because it is raining in June?
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12z GFS swings away from Boxing Day cool down. ECM still buying it but only for a couple of days...
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Anyone got any advice on Avoriaz... May be heading over there for a few days
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@AP1, Don't bother
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
AP1 wrote:
Anyone got any advice on Avoriaz... May be heading over there for a few days


See the current PdS thread. Ticket sales have been limited for the Christmas period. It's going to be mobbed. While conditions on what's open are ok in Avoriaz, the rest of the area is basically closed and there will be huge numbers trying to get up there.
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I know theres nothing i can do about it but I'm starting to get twitchy now about our holiday 4th Jan, still plenty of time for it to change but I told myself that 2 weeks ago. We nearly went Christmas week instead, luckily (for our group) I had too many projects to sign off to warrant taking time off.
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Thanks nelbert 75... It's either there or see what opens in the GM...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@Craig G, where are you going?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Alpe d'huez, so plenty of skiing up top, bit concerned lower down for the kids etc.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Craig G, #pray4snow
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Yep, it is a little bit like that. What will be will be.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
at this rate I'm hoping for snow for February lol
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
clarky999 wrote:
@Juddernaut, average December temperatures for Megeve (from what I can see) are -3°C to +5°C, with the highest recorded max at +18°C... So the current temperatures are hardly freakish!

Dude, if these were the temperatures they are having now, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Big difference between what you are saying and the reality I provided. Temperatures are well above norm for this time of year. Fact.

I just left my local boozer in Geneva and it balmy warm. Fact.

I would love to tell you that it is freezing and dumping snow but it isn't. Understand? If I was lying then we would all have a foot of fresh pow to fall over in.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Juddernaut, your are quite right. cervinia had rain on thursday evening which cleared most of the snow from the streets and there was even some rain up as far as 2500 during the day
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
3.5C at six am outside my house in Morzine. Not normal.
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Balmy in Zurich.
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Forecast not reassuring. Several balmy days to come, then uncertainty, but unfortunately if anything green and blue runs trending to above average temps and not promising much snow.
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8c at the top of the Hartkaiser (Ellmau) at 8.20am. Must be a temp inversion as it"s 3c further down (according to the webcams)
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Drier than average outlook for much of the Alps over the coming week, marginally better in Austria.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Some snowfall early hours of Saturday and Sunday (on WRF)

Sat 03z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=33#model
Sun 03z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=57#model
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
not looking like any significant snow on the horizon for the rest of the year from a quick look this morning, however things can change quickly so let's hope something shows up even in FI and hangs around when we get into high res runs!
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a light dusting it seems across the french/Italian border, so perhaps a little for the Tarentaise................perhaps it will intensify like the other day

we live in hope.........

after that drizabone for the forseeable!!!!!!!
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Juddernaut wrote:
clarky999 wrote:
@Juddernaut, average December temperatures for Megeve (from what I can see) are -3°C to +5°C, with the highest recorded max at +18°C... So the current temperatures are hardly freakish!

Dude, if these were the temperatures they are having now, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Big difference between what you are saying and the reality I provided. Temperatures are well above norm for this time of year. Fact.

I just left my local boozer in Geneva and it balmy warm. Fact.

I would love to tell you that it is freezing and dumping snow but it isn't. Understand? If I was lying then we would all have a foot of fresh pow to fall over in.


You said the forecast was -1 to +9, and that that's well about average for Megeve (village level) in December, but it's not WAY above - it's pretty much in the normal range.

But no question it's not cold right now. And no question I'm being a pedantic Be Nice please! wink

Today is a lot warmer though Confused
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Wow, it's really starting to look like no snow for the rest of the year. I think I'm moving from the denial to anger stage of grief for this season.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quick glance at the current temperature anomalies over the last month...

Geneva is running at +3.21 C above average
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn06700_30.gif

Salzburg at +2.7C
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn06700_30.gif

Meanwhile Meteo France saying this is a five to ten year event and you have to go back to December 2006 to see an equivalent situation.

"Un enneigement aussi faible se rencontre en moyenne tous les 5 à 10 ans selon les massifs et ne s'était pas vu depuis décembre 2006."

However, they do make the point that mid December snow is not a good indicator for the rest of the season.

"Au vu des années passées, un faible enneigement mi-décembre n'est pas un bon indicateur pour la suite de la saison."

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites?articleId=19194864

Meanwhile they suggest 2014 is going to be the warmest year in France since 1900.

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites?articleId=19501872
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
06z GFS attempts to spread a little Chritsmas cheer.

And would actually land snow on the eastern Alps to low levels on the day itself! But not a huge amount. FI looks quite promising. Then again that's why it's FI...


http://youtube.com/v/qTx-sdR6Yzk
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
That's it , given in. Summer patio furniture is out... Sat on the balcony in the sun.....it's still beautiful
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Our geraniums are in full flower. Having lunch out in the sun and it feels like the middle of spring. Thermometer says 14 firkin degrees.
Jura is bereft of snow. Amazing
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
December 2006 to see an equivalent situation.
December 2006 was better than it is now in Les Arcs. The snow arrived earlier and there was more of it, and while much of December was dry it was cold enough to run cannons down to the lower villages.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
anything for Tarentaise Noza.....before the 28th ?? please

thanks
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Doesn't look like it to me, but I'm not Noza-tradamus.
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@rogg, Noza-tradamus, love it!!
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Interesting piece from SLF on why there are a disproportionate amount of serious back country Avalanche accidents in Valais and Grisons despite them not appearing to have a much larger number of tourers than other parts of the Swiss Alps.

http://www.slf.ch/praevention/lawinenunfaelle/unfaelle_regional/index_EN
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@stefoy4me, just remember it'll be "worth waiting for" when it comes.


http://youtube.com/v/ouYKeeTz7Yw
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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I still think a change is coming after Boxing day ! I'm a half full type of guy and if not plenty of walking and a long long lunch , happy days . Smile Smile

@nozawaonsen, Ice Cold in Alex , SPOT ON
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Meanwhile, over in the Wild West, it's... also been a bit of a slow start...

http://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf

A slow snow start across the west [Wasaatch Weather Weenies]

Mount Baker...

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Differrent type of problem in Hakuba mind you...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1505729716366350&set=a.1505729766366345.1073741828.100007880086240&type=1&fref=nf


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Fri 19-12-14 13:57; edited 2 times in total
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hahaha noza......@stefoy4me, just remember it'll be "worth waiting for" when it comes.

that depends when it happens if its after 04/01 when i m back in the office watching the webcams!!!!!!!!

fingers and much else crossed
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