Quick glance at the CFS seasonal model suggests potential for northern blocking and a -NAO during the winter months (maybe building as winter progresses).
That would favour a colder than usual winter for Europe, possibly drier than usual in the northern Alps, wetter in the southern. But that's pretty speculative and any long range model needs to be treated with a lot of caution.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Nice to see a dusting of white on the mountain tops in the Alps. Looks like there could be a bit more Thursday into Friday down to around 1900m in places. It'll draw back again as it warms up at the weekend. But may see another push next week.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Generally cooler that average set up prevailing for the next ten days across the Alps (and UK).
It looks pretty wet at times too especially in western Austria do there should be further snowfall at high altitudes. Down to around 1800m in places today, rising a fair bit over the weekend (any rain washing away earlier lower smowfall) and then falling again from the middle of next week.
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Thu 12-09-13 13:40; edited 1 time in total
Hit the HISTALP link in that post it'll take you to a north south map.
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ewanmalone wrote:
this has been answered before im sure but where is the line drawn that separates the northern and southern alps?
My rule of thumb:
France is west
Austria is east
Switzerland is wherever snow is forecast
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Doh ignore above- clearly I was answering wrong question, but I could come up with similar rule of thumb for North- south I'm sure
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Lautaret pass (east of Grenoble) till northern Tyrol (AU) it's easy: the alpine ridge, i.e. the border (FR-IT, then CH-IT, then AU-IT).
East of Gerlos (AU) the alpine ridge is within Austrian territory. Carinthia is southern, Steiermark is northern.
Everything south of the Lautaret pass (FR) is southern.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
CFS has swung recently towards very weak/marginal El Niño conditions from late Autumn.
"In the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and the Intermountain North, an El Niño winter has a greater chance to be
drier and warmer than average, and vice versa for a La Niña winter. For California and the Southwest, El Niño winters have a greater chance to be wetter than average, and vice versa for La Niña. Furthermore, the stronger the El Niño or La Niña, the greater the chance of seeing an out- of-the-norm winter. But don’t kid yourself – it’s way more complicated than just that.
The dirty little secret that gets drowned out in the hype is that any one climate signal doesn’t necessarily guarantee that your snow season is going to be a boom or a bust. Some regions in the West experience La Niña more strongly than El Niño (the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia). For some regions, the opposite is true. Some regions won’t typically see impacts from El Niño or La Niña when the signal is weak, but only when it is moderate-to-strong (the Sierra Nevada). Some regions may experience large variability within a season, where the early or late season may be more heavily weighted (Colorado). And if you ski Utah’s Wasatch, the surprising truth is that there’s just no reliable correlation between ENSO and the “Greatest Snow on Earth.”
But as they say... it's more complicated than that..."
"The last known El Nino, also considered weak by scientists, is thought to have been partly responsible for the mild winter of 2006/07"
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
bruisedskier, that article rather over interprets what the Met Office said. The key element is "partly" responsible. There are many factors that play a part ENSO is just one and it's impacts are more widely felt away from Europe (PNW for example).
2009/10 was indeed the last significant El Niño event, though in that case the winter turned out to be very cold in much of Europe, particularly the UK.
This however was more to do with the strongly -NAO/AO rather than ENSO.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks like further snow Monday night into Tuesday morning, possibly falling to quite low levels (1400m on places) early Tuesday before temperatures rising again and snow line around 2000m for Tuesday into Wednesday, the focus again looks like being around the western end of Austria. Beyond that the last week of September currently looks relatively warm at least for now.
+they expect 50cm fresh snow on the glaciers by Thursday
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The art of weather forecasting was shown yesterday not be so reliable when the BBC implied that a HUGE storm would hit the Great North Run, and yes it was a bit windy and there was a bit of rain but not the end of the world. Maybe I should have asked nozawaonsen, instead as they know far more.
The art of weather forecasting was shown yesterday not be so reliable when the BBC implied that a HUGE storm would hit the Great North Run, and yes it was a bit windy and there was a bit of rain but not the end of the world. Maybe I should have asked nozawaonsen, instead as they know far more.
We did the Leeds 100 bike ride yesterday and whilst it was definitely breezy, and we had a 20 mile spell that was a bit "challenging" with wind and rain, it was nothing like the biblical storm they'd predicted. There was a bike event in the Lakes called off because of the dire forecast.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Snow in Monterosa last night according to the webcams.
yup, looks like Beaufortain has snow to about 1600m laying this morning too ...its coming
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
skinutter, ah, you're right! Hadn't seen the webcams. It might be coming but it will soon be going.
After all it is free
After all it is free
yup of course will tease for a couple of months yet before finally sticking but nice to see it again - was 30 degrees when i drove over the col last month
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Latest JAMSTEC update for winter has returned to a much colder set up for much of Europe.
Looks drier for much of northern Europe too so that would suggest a -NAO to me.
"In northern regions, widespread snowfall is expected on Monday night. The snowfall level will drop down rapidly to below 1500 m. On Tuesday the snowfall will slacken off. Particularly in the inneralpine regions, brief interims of bright skies are possible. On Tuesday night, precipitation is expected to set in once again and continue until Thursday morning. The snowfall level will be between 2000 and 2500 m.
Between Monday evening and Thursday evening, the following amounts of new fallen snow are anticipated above 2500 m:
northern flank of the Alps, northern Grisons and Samnaun, approximately a half-meter
Valais, central Grisons, northern Lower Engadine, 20 to 40 cm
elsewhere less
In the major areas of precipitation on the northern flank of the Alps, as much as 1 meter of snow may fall in high alpine regions.
At all altitudes, strong velocity winds are expected, to some extent at storm strength, from western to northwestern directions.
In southern regions skies will be overcast by and large. Only a small amount of precipitation is anticipated, or none at all."
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
The last week of September looks like high pressure will be in charge in Europe as this anomaly chart suggests.
That should bring milder and drier weather across much of Europe.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
A milder spell in the Alps (good for hiking) looks very likely now from the weekend. Some hints of a return to cooler weather in early October, GFS op went very cold for the time of year, but was very much an outlier.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen wrote:
A milder spell in the Alps (good for hiking) looks very likely now from the weekend.
Thank you. We are off to do just that in Switzerland. Oh happy days.
And of course thanks for your weather updates in general. Much appreciated.
Definite indications of a cooler start to October in the 06z GFS output especially in the Eastern Alps (as well as in Scotland and Scandinavia).
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Racing towards the equinox this evening (2044). The sun will then cross into the southern hemisphere and night time will start to outpace daylight in the northern hemisphere through to March (20th) next year.
A pretty mild spell over the coming week in the Alps with above average temperatures for the time of year. These look like cooling a little as we enter October, but nothing particularly cold for now.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Some interesting output for Jackson Hole... Alert issued by NOAA earlier today.
"THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF WYOMING HAVE A GOOD SHOT OF RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. EARLY
INDICATIONS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF BETWEEN 8 AND 16 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. RESIDENTS OF NORTHWEST WYOMING...AS WELL AS VISITORS TO GRAND TETON AND YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARKS NEED TO PREPARE FOR
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW PACKED AND HAZARDOUS. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING MAJOR STORM."
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Back in Europe temperatures looking pretty mild, though early October not currently looking very settled.
It's an absolutely stunning morning above the Valais.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
I've been keeping my eyes on Lake Tahoe, Mammoth mountain and Yosemite since I was there 2 weeks ago. Several nights of between 0 and -5c in the last fee nights and also some snow. Mammoth got its first snow of the new season a few days ago also.
I've been keeping my eyes on Lake Tahoe, Mammoth mountain and Yosemite since I was there 2 weeks ago. Several nights of between 0 and -5c in the last fee nights and also some snow. Mammoth got its first snow of the new season a few days ago also.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
was holding a pint on lake Geneva yesterday and had a nice view on snowy peaks ... was only 50 km, but still 3.5 months away from iit. Today is even worse - still the same 3.5 months (-1 day) but 950 km away ...
Have the same request as last year - can we fast forward this thread to at least page 21-22? Please
After all it is free
After all it is free
has anyone noticed that the NOAA logo looks like a thistle ?
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ECM suggesting that colder weather may start to establish itself in eastern Europe as we move into October, possibly including parts of Austria and Italy, but the Alps are right on the border of above average or below average.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
not long in to this years (noz and others fest) and already over 10k pages views.
thanks weather gurus, i know you cant change it just yet but lots of people reading the updates already...
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
...its coming
