 Poster: A snowHead
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| AthersT wrote: |
| There is definitely a breakdown of sorts for the current weather patterns due for around 16th - 20th period. |
While it might be nice to see the GFS rattling out a run showing precipitation ready for your holiday, there's never anything can be said to be definite in the 7-10 day range for a landlocked set of mountains in south central Europe. High pressure stasis is the most stable state in that zone.
If and when you see a low pressure system predicted to rip through on a bullseye trajectory by all weather models at the 2-3 day range, it's time to get your hopes up. 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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ZAMG (bergfex) was predicting 15-20cm on the 15th also - I know to not get my hopes up yet - but things aren't looking too negative at this moment in time, once this weekend passes we should know roughly whether these estimates are any good or not.
Positive thinking wouldn't hurt 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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GFS shows a small chance of a break down in the Alps mid month, but the majority of the ensembles suggest a continuation of mild weather. This evening's ECM is more inclined to cooler weather showing up mid month.
So pulling that together I'd tend to say that shows an uncertain picture from mid month, but a continuation of the current warmer than average weather certainly doesn't look unlikely (if I can get away with prevaricating with double negatives).
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nozawaonsen,
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if I can get away with prevaricating with double negatives
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Oh, go on then, since it's you! 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Echoed on Snow Forecast (Ischgl btw) now will change by this evening but here's hoping -
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AthersT, that pic shows up to 9 days away - snowforecast makes you pay for that - do you subscribe?
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Not sure the picture is so rosy in the French Alps. 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Paid £3-99 foolishly for only this month as I'm going away - waste really as shortly after I found lots of places with similar free information.
One thing I do like is looking back and comparing historical snow data for potential places to go next year.
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AthersT, there's not really much point saying snowforecast offers collateral to GFS as they are based on the same data, the GFS operational run (though snowforecast lags GFS by several hours).
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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You are right but, what Snow forecast does is slightly different as it derives the temperature for the top, mid and bottom lift and the individual weather conditions for each individual resort in a clear and obvious manner. I know that it is the same information with a 3 or 4 hour lag but the way it is displayed does not require intense scrutiny in order to understand a forecast. Snow Forecast also offers historical data and other resources that a GFS log does not. I'm not pretending to be a weather expert and so this information on many occasions is fine. Bergfex is another forecast source using different data that offers a decent comparison.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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AthersT, Exactly. Snowforecast provides the info in an easy to read package.
Not a load of wiggly lines or rows of strange hieroglyphics.
The experts may understand the graphs, but Weather Plebs like me need simple graphics.
That's why the likes of Snowforecast and Metoeblue do so well.
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That's why the likes of Snowforecast and Metoeblue do so well.
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despite giving what looks like a "certain" picture despite the uncertainties even of the model it's drawn from, let alone the actual chaotic atmosphere. 
Jonpim, The GFS "wigglies" are not difficult to read at all, and much more useful.
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You know it makes sense.
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AthersT, £3.99? What a waste! You could've got a half of lager for that where I skied this year. Erm, hang on a minute, you couldn't.... 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Is this correct - the amount of precipitation? Or is it just broken. lol
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Jonpim, AthersT, you're mistaken if you think my point above was somehow intended to be critical of particular weather sites. The ones you mention certainly provide data in an easy to read format which many people clearly find attractive (though simplifying things comes at a cost to the quality of the information being provided).
My point was just to repeat that the majority of them are all based on the GFS operational run, so saying it says it on GFS and snowforecast and meteoblue, so that's three sources of information and therefore gives that outcome more weight, would be inaccurate as it's actually just the one source of information and the GFS Op run becomes a lot less useful as a tool if it doesn't come with the rest of the ensembles.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen, no, not at all. I'm just interested in how many people and sites (e.g. SCGB) use/look at snowforecast when it's record for accuracy seems so poor. As you point out: simplification often results in degradation of data. But the simplified picture is so attractive.
I am learning to understand the more technical sites, but it does take time and effort.
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No I understood and when I posted that image it was more of illustration of temps and snowfall mid mountain. You didn't need to inform me that they are from the same GFS run. I would be interested to find a list of where different sites receive there info from though. This is what I know of currently Snowforecast/SCGB/Meteoblue - GFS and Bergfex - ZAMG. Not sure on wetterzentrale. Also any idea why the anomaly on the above GFS?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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So looking at the 06z GFS ensembles above you can see the op run goes cold for the Alps and brings quite a lot of precipitation over. That will get translated into a picture showing snow, cold temperatures and xxcms of snow. But actually although that is one outcome you can see there is far from universal support for it and indeed the control run stays above average whilst the op run looks like quite an outlier for precipitation. So whilst cold and snow is one outcome a milder outcome remains quite likely too. Nevertheless continuing and building support for a colder spell over the next few runs will start to increase confidence.
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AthersT, wetterzentrale (like Meteociel) shows a range of the main model outputs. The ones you posted the other day were GFS (it indicates this at the bottom if the chart). The anomaly you mention is just a software glitch. As for different altitudes (mid mountain etc) it is relatively simple to infer these with a little practice, but obviously also fine if you want to use something like snowforecast.
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Thanks and also I apologise for my rampant optimism in all of my previous and future posts. 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Jonpim wrote: |
AthersT, Exactly. Snowforecast provides the info in an easy to read package.
Not a load of wiggly lines or rows of strange hieroglyphics.
The experts may understand the graphs, but Weather Plebs like me need simple graphics.
That's why the likes of Snowforecast and Metoeblue do so well. |
Maybe it's because I've always studied science and work in quite a data/graph heavy job, but I find the GFS ensembles pretty straightforward... I don't really understand the confusion.
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The period around 17 April continues to be problematic with the GFS op run going cold, but with mixed support from ensembles.
ECM isn't buying a colder outlook yet.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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This morning sees the GFS ensembles move away from a colder spell around 17 April (though there's a brief and not very convincing outlying spike of precipitation which would bring snow to parts of the western Alps).
ECM goes for a brief spell of cold in the east, but warmth in the west.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Seems to be some hedge sitting going on 
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nozawaonsen, there are about 120 snowHeads hanging on your every word.
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You know it makes sense.
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I'm doing the snow dance for Ischgl this Easter
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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AthersT, would you mind doing some extra dancing for L2A for me?
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Quote: |
there are about 120 snowHeads hanging on your every word
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Why 
It's mid April. If mountain weather is clear, sunny and lends itself to relaxing days with late starts, lovely corn snow if you get your timing right, zip lining slushy bumps and chilled late lunches on sun soaked terraces then that's what's wanted.
Isn't it?
Otherwise it's likely to be precipitation falling in an unfrozen state which is no fun at all. (Surely somewhat delusional to have expectations otherwise...)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| under a new name wrote: |
| Quote: |
there are about 120 snowHeads hanging on your every word
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Why
It's mid April. If mountain weather is clear, sunny and lends itself to relaxing days with late starts, lovely corn snow if you get your timing right, zip lining slushy bumps and chilled late lunches on sun soaked terraces then that's what's wanted.
Isn't it?
Otherwise it's likely to be precipitation falling in an unfrozen state which is no fun at all. (Surely somewhat delusional to have expectations otherwise...) |
For me I am hoping for more snow because, this is the first ski holiday I have been able to afford the time for years. Secondly because this is the only time I have been able to go so having poor conditions but enjoying the weather is not necessarily on my list of priorities. The Thailand trip I did in Feb sorted that. If that's what I have to put up with then fair enough but a nice dump two days before I arrive (19th) would be just great.
*Late starts - no thanks I want to be up before the rush, first lift getting the best of the pistes and any fresh snow on offer :]
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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AthersT,
I hope you get lucky but mid April is not your best bet for fresh snow and I'm sure you realise that at this time of year the piste are not at their best first lift. Conditions are freeze/thaw so you get the best of the snow between about 10 and 1 depending on the altitude and elevation. Hence UANN's comments.
I'm sure you'll have a good time but in April it's definitely about embracing the conditions rather than wishing it was February!
Cheers
J
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| jedster wrote: |
AthersT,
I hope you get lucky but mid April is not your best bet for fresh snow and I'm sure you realise that at this time of year the piste are not at their best first lift. Conditions are freeze/thaw so you get the best of the snow between about 10 and 1 depending on the altitude and elevation. Hence UANN's comments.
I'm sure you'll have a good time but in April it's definitely about embracing the conditions rather than wishing it was February!
Cheers
J |
No I completely understand - rampant optimism and bloody mindedness allied to uncertain GFS runs give me hope.
I had a bad experience once when I was 19 with my mates - arrived in Bardonecchia 2nd week in march with about 6-7 runs open with about 40cm of spring snow on piste.
It can't be worse than that - especially as there was f**k all to do (except drink) there as well. We had one day at the Via Lattea (Sestriere, Claviere, Montgenevre etc) which was immensely better but since then I am all too aware of spring conditions and the risk of a late season trip.
Still fingers crossed.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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jedster, come on, it CAN happen, this week last year it was dumping it down, I know it was exceptional, but that doesn't stop those of us that are stuck with next week (or the week after) due to one reason or another hoping for the best.
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| NickyJ wrote: |
| jedster, come on, it CAN happen, this week last year it was dumping it down, I know it was exceptional, but that doesn't stop those of us that are stuck with next week (or the week after) due to one reason or another hoping for the best. |
+1
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AthersT, I hope you get great conditions, really, I do, and it can happen, sometimes.
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It can indeed happen. The conditions at last years EoSB were utterly amazing (though of course we were calling it a day in the fairly early afternoon.)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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NickyJ,
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this week last year
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While I know what you are trying to say, it's either "this week" or "last year"
Anyway, conditions experienced at this time of year last year have no bearing whatsoever on what is going to happen at the same time this year. Or next year.
Last season's snow fall was quite exceptional and unusual.
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Last season's snow fall was quite exceptional and unusual.
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I'll say. this time last year there was the best part of 2 metres of snow outside my terrace (some of it hrown up by the fraise clearing the path - wasn't a level 2 metres at 1550m!). This morning my grand-daughters have been playing "nurseries" with all their dollies and teddies, in a tent, on the very green grass, in T-shirts.
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FAQ
