Essentially, yes, there is more data included. The breakdown for this coming weekend is pretty much nailed on now, I would say. The exact timing and the snow implications are less certain, although I think it would be unlikely for a large atlantic low to batter through a strong european high in such a fashion and not leave at least a few cms of snow (or mms. of rain) across the alps.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
kitenski wrote:
nozawaonsen, thanks, but not quite sure what changes between high and low? Do they run with more data in the high resolution or what?
Just trying to further my knowledge
regards,
Greg
Greg, as I understand it the higher resolution refers to calculating the forecast for more individual points on the surface, not sure how the grid is set, in degrees or what but in essence the high res run would be a '1/2 degree grid' instead of a '1 degree grid' if that makes sense.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Just back home and my thermometer in the shade is now at 19.1 and it usually records its highest values at circa 15:30.
Temp in the direct sunshine 31 degrees.
And then this chart is showing what WellingtonBoot, is alluding to above
Chart will update and will be interesting to see how things develop in another 48hrs
What I don't understand is why, given that it's not supposed to have been freezing at night for some time, the pistes are rock hard in the mornings - those oriented away from the sun were still very hard at mid day though lower, south-facing pistes were very soft by 1030.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
pam w, Weathercam, snow loses heat primarily by radiation. Thus on clear nights it refreezes even if temp is well above freezing.
By similar mechanism we get frost without temp falling to freezing. Temperature of ground is below zero even though air temperature well above
Just like jbob's car
After all it is free
After all it is free
I'm heading out on the 22nd and I'm going high in France. I've been looking at webcams and looking at recent model runs and I'm happy I'm at least going high. Snow up to 1400-1500m appears to have been decimated over the past week, even on north facing slopes - and the worst is still to come. Moreover, the charts are suddenly trending away from a megadump in the french alps towards 12 hours of moderate snow down to mid levels, and then 2 days of dumping in the Swiss and Austrian Alps instead...
Still far enough out for things to change, but it's getting closer and more accurate with every run...
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WellingtonBoot wrote:
the charts are suddenly trending away from a megadump in the french alps towards 12 hours of moderate snow down to mid levels, and then 2 days of dumping in the Swiss and Austrian Alps instead...
The big dump and temperature drop for Austria next weekend seems to have melted away like snow in springtime.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
We're going to Claviere on Sunday. Any idea how promising the snow for that area at the weekend looks? Thanks to the weather gurus who contribute their knowledge to this thread.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
New to forum - excited to see the 9 day forecast this morning (trying to downplay the reports in my head) - dumps for Austria.
With the smallest amount forecast for Austria being 25cm upto 90cm. (good news for me off to Ischgl for Easter and was getting worried)
This morning's GFS has flipped away from colder temperatures this weekend and also shifted precipitation towards the western Alps.
Still some support within the ensembles and ECM for colder snowy outlook, so the 06z and 12z may give a clearer idea of whether this is a blip by GFS or not.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Personally I hope it's not a blip as Austria could do with a quite a bit of snow in many areas to see out the season without early closures - there does seem to be snow probable for all of the western alps inc France and Italy just maybe to a lesser extent. This is mostly hypothetical of course but I can still cross my fingers and hope.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
AthersT, the "blip" I'm referring to is the latest GFS op run which shows very little snow for Austria and mild temperatures across the Alps? Presumably you do hope that is a blip?
The potential longer term problem for the Alps shown on the GFS this morning is that the demise of the existing Euro high pressure neither pulls in a an emphatic (if brief) northerly by shifting west as it dies, nor does it reflate itself somewhere useful enough to let a cool, easterly air source to visit the Alps or indeed, a messy trough to dig down into central Europe and at least keep us guessing. The GFS shows nothing really disruptive enough to reset the current bleughness and instead the high pressure looks to just kind of puff out in situ and spin back up again, blocking out anything actually 'weathery' south of about 50 degrees latitude. Further north, that air source wouldn't be good for the longevity of our Scottish snow either as it'd be drawing mild air out of the south Atlantic.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Still some support within the ensembles and ECM for colder snowy outlook
Yep, so let's hope the GFS is wrong. The UK Met Office looks a bit better too ...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
ZAMG sourced forecast still showing snow and cold from Sunday, lets hope GFS comes back to play too, though of course I really just hope for snow and cold irrespective of what GFS says.
http://www.bergfex.at/zauchensee/wetter/berg/
AthersT, the "blip" I'm referring to is the latest GFS op run which shows very little snow for Austria and mild temperatures across the Alps? Presumably you do hope that is a blip?
Ahh well yes I hope your source is incorrect - of course as I said this is all circumstantial and best guesses I was using a different website with different estimates - so hopefully they are correct. As the day progresses I'm sure they will become negatives!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Statistically it WILL rain or snow soon... you don't get a month long no rain that often... this will be 3 weeks without snow by Monday. So its coming.. just a case of when..
Yeah - I'm not sure if I can rely any of these more than 3 day forecasts at all - for instance at midnight-8am this morning skiclub.co.uk said 72cm of snow over next 9 days at Ischgl now 0cm.
I'm sure that a slight change and this could completely reverse. So yeah I think I will just hope that statistics win through and snow comes along!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
When's the next new moon [Fishing]
After all it is free
After all it is free
Six hours later, for the Alps at least, the flip-flopping GFS operational run hints at better near term and longer term news ...
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AthersT, taking a wild stab in the dark I'd suggest the reason the ski club forecast changed was that it was drawing it's data from the GFS op run, but updating more slowly than the GFS data. The same with the Unisys link which was also drawn from the same (out of date) GFS data.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Yesterday pam w wrote:
What I don't understand is why, given that it's not supposed to have been freezing at night for some time, the pistes are rock hard in the mornings
in reply peanuthead wrote:
snow loses heat primarily by radiation. Thus on clear nights it refreezes even if temp is well above freezing
The award-winning physicists Flanders and Swann suggest this is against the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics.
See http://youtube.com/v/VtEqn-5XHpU
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen wrote:
AthersT, taking a wild stab in the dark I'd suggest the reason the ski club forecast changed was that it was drawing it's data from the GFS op run, but updating more slowly than the GFS data. The same with the Unisys link which was also drawn from the same (out of date) GFS data.
Yeah it has changed again now back up to 11cm - I think there may be a 3-6 hour lag on the skiclub website, but I think one thing that can be deduced is that at this moment the forecast is very uncertain and changeable. This time tomorrow it could be nothing again or we could be looking at a large dump - which is currently expected for many parts of Switzerland, especially as Ischgl is on the Austria-Swiss border.
Fingers crossed everywhere gets a good amount of snow
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Given the "will it, won't it" speculation regarding this weekend's forecast, would anyone care to suggest if i should go to the added expense of hiring snow chains for my return trip from Obertauern to Munich next Monday. We fly out on Thursday and i have little doubt that we will be fine on snow tyres on the way there. First time to Obertauern so don't know the access roads etc.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I would leave it till the last moment to decide - current forecast says no, by Thursday the forecast could be alot different. Not very much help but as you say alot of uncertainty currently.
This season has been really warm and I haven't even put the snow chains in the car. Last friday on the way to Zauchensee the temp was 20 deg and sunny. I was contemplating booking the car in early to have the winter tyres swapped over before the end of the month (to miss the usual April rush). The snow chains are going in the car tonight for a trip to Tyrol later this week.
Obertauern is high and some of the side roads have a fairly steep gradient, I'd take chains.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Wib - are you guaranteed snow tyres with your rental? In Germany I believe you do not legally need snow tyres fitting - you just can't drive if you don't have them and the weather meets the criteria that the authorities decide. It will also depend on whether the car is front, rear or 4 wheel drive and what the access to your accom/parking is like.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Chocksaway - Yes, snow tyres in with the rental price so am confident we could handle some snowy conditions but have never driven in chains so don't know at what point they become essential.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I really hope that Bergfex forecast is correct but after the changing GFS models all day I would be surprised if it wasn't using out of date information. Just take them anyway - "Be Prepared" and all that...
Not much precipitation for Obertauern on either of those charts.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
The point is this morning there was none for Austria at all - 8 hours later the forecast has changed quite alot. In fact that band of precipitation was centered over south western France, some of Italy and mostly the med.
WIB is asking if it's worth getting chains; if the area with most precipitation changes 100-200miles north between now and next Sunday/Monday the requirement could very well be there.
Currently - skiclub.co.uk says Obertauern will get 11cm and Bergfex says somewhere in the region of 70cm so I would rather be safe than sorry.
After all it is free
After all it is free
each 6 hour GFS run for the Arlberg seems to be flipping by 10-15 degrees at the moment!!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Yeah I wish they'd make up their mind. If Bergfex is correct now, then we are back where we were this time yesterday in regards to forecast - for me it could be great news.
Ischgl where I'm off to for Easter according to them should receive between Saturday and next Wednesday 85-100cm of snow on the mountain and 30-40cm in the valley. I want to believe it so much, but something tells me this is too good to be true!
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Jonpim, exactly that had occurred to me; must be our age. I was singing "heat can't pass from a cooler to a hotter..... it can try but it far better notter..." but I thought I was just being dim - so I'm glad you asked, because somebody clever will probably explain how it works.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
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