 Poster: A snowHead
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It's all pretty self-explanatory from all the charts above. A sprinkling of snow around the 21st/22nd then another temperature rise that lasts until pretty much the start of March... then we have increasing uncertainty for the temps after that. Very little model agreement, some stay warm, some go cooler, some go sibierian. GFS is usually good at spotting trends... unfortunately it's normally good at spotting warming trends for some weird reason and can overcook cold spells dramatically (see the Big Freeze that never was in the UK a few weeks ago for evidence of that) so I've a feeling that it'll be middlingly cool for the start of March, certainly seasonal averages or slightly below, which can't be sniffed at.
Of course with the uncertainty over temperatures and the various machinations of warm and cold fronts all over the place, there's also considerable disagreement about amounts and frequency of precipitation. The bugger is that the precipitation that looks like falling in the last week of Feb is in warm-ish temps, so my gut feeling is snow/rain border of between 2000 and 2500 metres during the warmer spells, I'm afraid.
If the cold wins out on the battle early March then there should be some decent accumulations down to 1000-ish metres or thereabouts. I am a little concerned for the lower slopes throughout the last part of Feb if the rain falls heavily in warm temps. Time will tell...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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carled,
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The bug is that the precipitation that looks like falling in the last week of Feb is in warm-ish temps, so my gut feeling is snow/rain border of between 2000 and 2500 metres during the warmer spells, I'm afraid.
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Sobs 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| carled wrote: |
| Of course with the uncertainty over temperatures and the various machinations of warm and cold fronts all over the place, there's also considerable disagreement about amounts and frequency of precipitation. |
Don't sob just yet, the models are in disagreement over both temps and precipitation as Carled says, keep watching and cross those fingers! It could get warmer, it could get colder.....
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
It could get warmer, it could get colder.....
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kitenski, you could just be right!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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is it to far to look at what is happening first week of march. are we expecting snow, cold weather, sun. for tignes this is. am off there on the 2nd and was oping for some fresh snow to play in any chance.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| benpudney wrote: |
| is it to far to look at what is happening first week of march.. |
yes...
but GFS is looking like a temp drop and maybe some precipitation......
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Tue 19-02-08 15:16; edited 1 time in total
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keep watching and cross those fingers
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Oh, believe me, I am... 
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Last week in Feb in Engelberg looking decidedly warm for my liking. Any predictions oh wise one? 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| skithighs wrote: |
| Last week in Feb in Engelberg looking decidedly warm for my liking. Any predictions oh wise one? |
What? Apart from the one about 7 posts up there ^^^ ?
No.
But then you're probably talking to Brian and not me so... butting out now.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I am out in Engleberg from the 29th Feb, so will hold off on any predictions just yet skithighs....
I have (sadly) got the GFS and a webcam up on one of my webpages so I can quickly check the latest situation...
http://www.gregh.co.uk/php/gfsruns.php?select=Engelberg
regards,
Greg
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kewhoward, you are being a trifle unhelpful. Advice to read recent posts carefully to avoid wasting everybody's time is sound, though. The resident experts on this thread often provide very helpful thoughts about specific locations - though not for weeks ahead, naturally, and not immediately after a more general synopsis which stresses the extreme uncertainty about the general synopsis. They don't expect us to study meteorology either, though they do expect us to know the difference between meteorology and astrology.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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skithighs, You wasted noone's time .. this site is full of folks who look to do that for themselves willingly! Welcome to ..stick around !
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Thanks Agenterre, can't wait. Too far away. By the way its minus 3, foggy and still ver' ver' flat here in York. Would advise tree lined skiing only 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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carled, I cant see the winds ... I had predicted a warming here 3 days ago .. I was at least 3 days too early .. hopefully that means GFS ( and yhe real thing) continues from there ... but still cant see it being 'A Big Snowfall' ..
I still have loads to learn about this alpine stuff 
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hmm, 12z has a crazy split of temps at the beginning of March from about -15 to +4, so it's all very much still up in the air, so to speak 
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LOL. Gotta love the 12z's control-run for the end of Feb, start of March... Hmm, how best to express it...?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Agenterre, Looking back I don't see you prediction of "warming 3 days ago" perhaps you were looking at mine. Never mind - good news - It will snow at the turn of the month. Could be big. 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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P10DW, May have been on my Gstaad thread ( or in my head !!) ... but I do get it wrong usually !
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carled,
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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carled,
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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carled, now I thought the red line was the 30 year average... the red lines above seem to be all over the place.... where will the giant snowman be falling?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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ah, that's where you're going wrong. The orange line (Red? are you colour-blind?) is the little-known "snowman meridian" available only to advanced GFS analysts.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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carled, Even I can understand you explanatory additions.
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Fruity, the bottom set of wigglies shows precipitation - if the top set of wigglies is too high it might fall as rain but that dark blue line on your chart for the later period would suggest its going to be cold so the bottom set of wigglies could well be snow
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FAQ
