 Poster: A snowHead
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According to a top secret (sic!) Pentagon report conveniently summarized in the Observer yesterday Britain will have a Siberian climate withing 20 years with average winter temperatures of -6C.
But forget thoughts of winter skiing on the South Downs. It will be desert like with little precipitation and global energy shortages will mean that there will be no power for ski lifts.
Yeay yeay, well as if we haven't enough to worry about.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Is a woolly mammoth good eating ?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Certainly the Scottish Highlands felt like that yesterday morning: a bitter north-easterly wind sweeping across corries that are normally full of snow in February but sadly lacking it this winter (yet again).
Please double-check your temperature quote. The copy of the Observer I have talks only in Fahrenheit, and says "Between 2010 and 2020 Europe is hardest hit by climatic change with an average annual temperature drop of 6F." That's still extremely serious, but nothing like an average temp of -6C!
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| David Goldsmith wrote: |
Please double-check your temperature quote. The copy of the Observer I have talks only in Fahrenheit |
Fahrenheit? Doh, stoopid Observer, why are they talking in Fahrenheit? That hardly sounds too dramatic, I find the weather too hot these days.
Anyway I suppose it is better than being hit by an asteroid which is what they were claiming not so long ago.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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It's Fahrenheit because the report was written by the Septics and they don't understand anything else.
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That may be, but the fact that this report comes from the Pentagon could have dramatic impact on US energy policy - especially if Bush is sacked by the electorate (not that I'm anything but politically neutral, you'll understand!)
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I am not politcally neutral.
THE TIME HAS COME FOR REGIME CHANGE IN WASHINGTON! I'm mad as hell and I vote! In Jeb's bailiwick, no less.
(Thanks. I needed that.)
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I don't know about 20 years hence - I was out on the Thames yesterday morning, and it was definatly felt Siberian to me.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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This or stories like it have been going arround for some time, basically one of the ideas is that if global warming carries on at its current rate then more fresh water from the northern hemishphere and North Russia and the Arctic in particular will flow into the North Atlantic altering the local density of the Ocean, this may cause the Ocean current known as the Atlantic Conveyor / The Gulf Stream to cease to function in the way it currently works, the result is that the UK and much of Northern Europe will cease to be warmed by this current ant thus will start to take on a climate like that of Canada or Scandanavia i.e much colder.
Now depending on when this occurs the climate change could result in anything from a near ice age (next 5 or so years) to a plesant mild cooling effect (50+ years) Because there is insufficient information so far for the scientists to accurately predict at what point the currents will change, none of them will give a definate answer on the likely effects.
Well something like that anyway, however should it happen the Government may get one benefit, the number of illegal imegrants entering the country is likely to drop as they go to better climates 
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Do you that the NatWest will back my business plan for a resort in Buxton??
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Richard Goodliffe wrote: |
| I don't know about 20 years hence - I was out on the Thames yesterday morning, and it was definatly felt Siberian to me. |
I remember that. You could try telling the guy on the bow to stop splashing. 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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You know it makes sense.
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| PG wrote: |
| Do you that the NatWest will back my business plan for a resort in Buxton?? |
Hmmm, well RBS haven't quite as positive towards my BP as other banks - you must have the charm!!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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This article in the Washington Times suggests findings by British researchers that the Gulf Stream is slowing significantly:
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Peter Wadhams, a professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University, told the Times of London that the columns of cold dense water that once sank to the seabed to be replaced by warm water have almost disappeared. |
Not a particularly informative article, so if anyone spots a link to the main study...
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Over the weekend we have had snow, sleet, hail, rain, thunder and sunshine.
One of my colleagues just commented on wearing gloves this morning !
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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As a simple guy who only knows 1+1=2 would we get back to where we are now by taking the average of Global warming (glaciers disappearing etc) and this Siberian cold?
If the disappearance of the warm gulf stream makes UK like Scandinavia and Canada then it isn't too bad as I have seen very nice weather in these countries.
Things do add up at all. If the gulf stream is almost gone and we have less snow due to warmer weather when it will reverse the trend to get colder?
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Mon 9-05-05 10:26; edited 1 time in total
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Going by all the discrepancies between the views of the alleged experts, even they haven't got much of a clue. Far too many "ifs"!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
If the gulf stream is almost gone and we have less snow due to warmer weather when it will reverse the trend to get colder?
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They are not saying that the Gulf Stream has turned off yet, just that one of the drivers of the gulf stream has virtually disappeared. The question is what effect will this have on the gulf stream and how soon will that effect become apparent. We will just have to wait and see!
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TallTone, The likelyhood of a The Day After Tomorrow scenario is really incredibly remote (about as likely as me dating Milla Jovovich and Keira Knightley at the same time ), much more likely would be a gradual drop in temps with longer colder winters look at scandanavia or costal regions of Canada for a guide as to the likely climate, just how rapidly those temp changes occur will depend on weather the gulf steam effect (or Atlantic conveyor) shuts down completely or only partially, these temp changes should effect the whole of northern Europe but it is likely to be most noticed in the UK
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D G Orf,
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scenario is really incredibly remote (about as likely as me dating Milla Jovovich and Keira Knightley at the same time
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I'm sure you're just being modest 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
| longer colder winters |
Hmmm, would that mean better skiing in the Pennines, and even the establishment of Scotland as a serious resort area? Hmmmm....
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I'll put another log on the fire, My car needs de-icing this morning 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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pah!! the world will use ever greater amounts of energy, nothing will stop that.. sure new technologies will make it all cleaner and quieter but it still takes x kilo watts to move 2 tons of car from a to b, wether it comes from oil coal or whatever..
wind power will help a little bit on windy days but lets face it , the french have the answer.. its nuclear time!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I wonder if the Gulf Stream is failing faster than we think.
I was on the far North West coast of Scotland last month and there were several indicators that the waters off the coast had begun to cool.
The whale watching boats have seen unprecedented numbers for the last two summers to the point where sightings are becoming routine and according to the locals several species of seabirds have nested again this year after an absence of several years due to a lack of food.
As both the whales and the shoals of baitfish feed on plankton which thrives in the oxygen rich environment of cold waters one has to wonder.
Also on the Springwatch programme there were a number of comments about the increase in seabird colonies on our Northern coasts this year due to the abundance of food (did anyone see the Puffin with about 10 sandeels in its beak).
I am no expert but when you consider the extended cold spells this year together with the above perhaps we are in for a shock .
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Stephen Sadler,
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The whale watching boats have seen unprecedented numbers for the last two summers to the point where sightings are becoming routine
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Yet a report from Aberdeen Uni http://www.abdn.ac.uk/mediareleases/release.php?id=277 suggests that the west coast is losing white nosed dolphins due to warming sea temperatures with common dolphins replacing them. Mind you they still seem common on the east coast as I was on the beach at St Cyrus and had a good view of a large pod of white nose dolphins just off the beach.
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You know it makes sense.
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Hmm according to a friend of mine who used to work for the ocean sciences department at Southampton University, the scientists still don't have enough data to make predictions accurately so they work on best guesses, apparently they have enough data to know that they don't have enough data to make accurate predictions but they don't know how much extra data they need to be able to make accurate predictions 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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D G Orf, sounds like one of Mr. Rumsfeld's "known unknowns"...
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Poster: A snowHead
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laundryman, new category methinks - "unknown known unknown" - we know we don't know something, but no (sic) idea how much we don't know about it!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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GrahamN, yes!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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That pretty well sums it up, they know that it's possible for the Atlantic conveyor to stop but they don't know just what actions will cause it to stop and they don't know how much extra data they need to know in order to know what those actions are. I bet they're as confused as the rest of us, they are however worried that it might be in the near future. Apparently the sooner the conveyor stops the more dramatic the effects, if it were to stop in the next 5 years we could look foward to a climate not unlike Norways, if it occurs in 50 years or more the effects of global warming will help offset the localised cooling
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D G Orf, So maybe we can have eco-friendly skiing in Wales soon, or look forward to my zimmer slipping over on the icy pavements in 50 years. laundryman, Joharis blind window...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Martin Nicholas, interesting, hadn't come across that before. Thanks.
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D G Orf,
This article http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=159 on the Real Climate site gives an overview of gulf stream/NAC slowdown and suggests its not likely to happen soon.
To quote their final para
"To be sure, there are some long term trends that are becoming discernable. There is a freshening of the North Atlantic visible since the 1950s. Long continuous records of temperature and salinity at Ocean Weather Station M in the Norwegian Sea indicate that the deep water has also warmed noticeably. However, monitoring networks are now starting to be put in place (Osterhus et al, 2005) and better integrated data will be available in the future. It is important to bear in mind that while the changes being seen are indeed significant given the accuracy of modern oceanography, the magnitude of the changes (a few hundredths of a salinity unit) are very much smaller (maybe two orders of magnitude) than the kinds of changes inferred from the paleo data or seen in climate models. Thus while continued monitoring of this key climatic area is clearly warranted, the imminent chilling of the Europe is a ways off yet. "
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The trouble with depending on the latest toys just installed to give you data is that you cannot be sure what information those same gadgets would have given you 10 years ago or 50 years ago, I have no idea if or when the conveyor will stop and as I understand it most scientists will tell you they can't predict the date it will stop either.
Even the salinity changes are predicted by computer, when the scientists don't fully understand the data themselves how on earth can they be expected to program a computer to give them accurate data, when computers first began to be used by engineers in the construction industry a number of construction disasters occured due to too much reliance on the data supplied by the computers, the same may happen with climate change, there are too many unknowns for accurate predictions
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no one knows for sure.. this is the weather we are talking about here? possibly THE most random thing in the world (after female mood swings ) ..
one minute its getting hotter .. then we will all freeze..
as far as i am concerned this weekend will be hot, and thats just fine by me..
i'd like to see hotter summers , wetter autumns, colder winters, and greener springs.. but we dont always get what we want
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Feels like the Gulf stream has already shut down here. . Last Sunday it barely got above 9C and most of this week its been overcast, wet and cold. If only we'd had these synoptics last December and January !
Hope summer starts soon....next week the nights start drawing in
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FAQ
Mind you, don't fancy being out when the superfreeze tornado hits 
