 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Mountain Haddock, how well did they score last year?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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They should focus on trying to guess the weather this week.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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under a new name, well they got it wrong didn't they - who would have predicted the best snow for 20 years?
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They should focus on trying to guess the weather this week
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I wonder if Meteo France are guessing any better?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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the same folk who forecast a bbq summer!!!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
the same folk who forecast a bbq summer
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kitenski, yes, but they didn't really forecast a BBQ summer - that was the press's simplistic take on it. The guarded probabilities the Met Office put out just don't lend themselves to sexy headlines. We'll just have to wait and see, as ever.
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It doesn't seem that bad to me, temperatures are meant to be slightly above average but most of the high french resorts where I spend my skiing time can handle a degree or two more but increased precipitation means more powder days. I know I'd prefer 2 days of powder followed by 2 days of warm temperatures than 4 days of icy hardpack cause its cold but theres no new snow. I suppose that for people who go on trips organised by people who can see beyond val thorens and the espace killy this view might change.
And to all the people slamming the met, they did clearly say that there was only a 65% chance of the summer they predicted happening but of course the papers liked to brush over that as 2/3 chance of good summer isn't a headline that will sell you many papers
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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they identified a positive probability of a better than average summer - which is not the same as forecasting one. I know they came up with the BBQ name. I've said before on SH that if the Met Office used probabilities more frequently in their day to day forecasting we'd all understand it better. Some of the sites I look at - for example Chamonix meteo - routinely place a "confidence" rating on their forecasts, which is extremely helpful. The daft forecasts we get now are all part of the dumbing down process. What use is a little picture with a cloud, a raindrop and a bit of sun?
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Whatever happened to Brian and carled?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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[quote="pam w"]they identified a positive probability of a better than average summer - which is not the same as forecasting one.
With all due respect that is not what the press release says? I can find no mention of the words you refer to in the press release I attached to my earlier post?
They do say that "the coming summer" is "odds on for a barbecue summer"" according to "long-range forecasts"
Am I missing something 
That said I fully agree with your point about the regular use of probabilities in short range forecasts
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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pam w, the Headline on the front page of the Meto Site at the time screamed "BBQ SUMMER". It's the Met Office's phrase and no-one elses! Anyway all forecasts are about probability whether expressed that way in the end to the public or not.
The Met Office keep digging these holes all by themselves, perhaps if they stuck to forecasting and stopped spinning! I've little sympathy after their stunt in Mid Feb when we were having the snowiest spell of weather in the UK for a number of years and the best skiing conditions in Scotland of the season, and they put out a release saying Global Warming would mean no snow and that Scottish Skiing hadn't a future and they wouldn't invest in it.
It was designed to promote an agenda, divert attention from the weather facts at the time that didn't fit that agenda and not a care that the publicity the release generated in the usual suspects in the media might actually be doing real damage to people's livelihoods here and now.
</rant>
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| andyph wrote: |
| Whatever happened to Brian and carled? |
. They don't post very much over the summer, they'll be back.
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You know it makes sense.
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I predict there will be weather.
This would have more success judging by recent forecasts (just needs amending for winter):
Weather Forecasting Stone
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Thu 30-07-09 13:07; edited 1 time in total
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Am I missing something
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Yes, the fact that "odds on" only means it's more probable that it will be than that it won't be. I do agree that the Met Office have only themselves to blame for not explaining what probability means.
If I put a lot of money on a horse which was "odds on" to win the Derby, I wouldn't have a leg to stand on if it didn't.
Carled popped up in the daft "ski all winter in the Swiss Alps for only 3 long days a week work each, plus your food and ski pass" thread. He's busy surfing, and I wouldn't recommend anybody who doesn't want an ear bashing asking him about the weather next winter till late November at the earliest. 
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Poster: A snowHead
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[bold]under a new name[/bold], well they got it wrong didn't they - who would have predicted the best snow for 20 years?
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And this quote shows one of the problems with the metoffice's seasonal forecast - its UK wide so may bear no relation to the weather in, for example, Scotland. Englandshire may have had the best snow for 20 years last winter, but scotland didn't even have the best snow for 1 year. Season 2007/08 was better and the year of the foot and Mouth epidemic (00/01?) was even better.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Helen Beaumont wrote: |
| andyph wrote: |
| Whatever happened to Brian and carled? |
. They don't post very much over the summer, they'll be back. |
No wonder the Met Office forecasts are all out of whack without these prognosticators of the wigglies to hand.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I suppose that for people who go on trips organised by people who can see beyond val thorens and the espace killy this view might change.
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Er, what's that supposed to mean about someone like me who happens to love Espace Killy and Val T - along with lots of the other 120 areas I have skied worldwide I hasten to add....y
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Mountain Haddock wrote: |
| who would have predicted the best snow for 20 years? |
Tour operators.
Out of interest in which areas did you see the best snow for 20 years?
this was the 6 month forecast from an experimental meteo france run for the Northern Alps made end of august:-
November 2008
Alternating between disturbed cold north easterly bringing some snown and southerly “foehn” winds. There will be a little snow and cold but just for short periods down to valley levels.
December 2008
Installation of a strong high pressure system over the Atlantic. Stable weather. Dry and warm for long periods. Inversion layer in the valleys. Mountains will be warm and sunny, valleys cold and foggy.
January 2009
The high pressure will continue with winds dominating from the south. Stable and warm weather in the mountains, grey in the valley. A oceanic weather front will bring some snow.
February 2009
Continuing high pressure, sunny warm weather, with only a small amount of snow during the month.
And this is what happened for most of the North Alps except on the border with Italy which saw more snowfall.
End October: 50cm of snow, skiable conditions on grassy slopes
2nd week of November: 30cm of fresh, ski touring starts in earnest
4th week of November -> mid December: 150cm of snow over a series of falls, avalanches in South, deaths in the Northen Alps
mid Dec to 2nd week Jan: no snow, spring skiing conditions
2nd week Jan: 30cm
3rd week Jan: 70cm, major avalanche cycle in Northern Alps
1st week Feb: 50cm
2nd week Feb to 1st week Mar: 0
2nd week Mar: 30cm, last major avalanche cycle
end March: 25cm
end April: 25cm
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I'm sure I read that it's going to be an El Nino year. As a general rule, how does this tend to affect temps/precipitation in Europe?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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"A study of atmospheric weather conditions (Fraedrich, 1994) found that during the winter (December, January, February) of an El Niño year there is an increased number of cyclonic weather systems over Europe – that is to say that the meteorological map features more low pressure systems, which are accompanied by their usual sort of weather. This results in colder weather over central and northern Europe, and increased winter precipitation in a band that runs from the British Isles to the Black Sea."
Not looking good for Canada, though.
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| ajpaul wrote: |
| I'm sure I read that it's going to be an El Nino year. As a general rule, how does this tend to affect temps/precipitation in Europe? |
The last El Nino was in 2006 / 2007.
The next El Nino will be in 2009 / 2010. It is set to be a near-record.
Strong El Nino = heat.
Winter 2009 / 2010 in the Northern Hemisphere will be a warm one.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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robboj, Interesting; how acurate have these predictions been in the past?
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| andyph wrote: |
| Whatever happened to Brian and carled? |
Do a search on brian to understand why he doesn't post here any more. The thread that he last contributed to explains it.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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rob@rar, Aah - I had put that unpleasantness to the back of my mind. I'm sorry brian no longer posts
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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genepi, ditto. A loss to  IMO.
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| snowplow wrote: |
"A study of atmospheric weather conditions (Fraedrich, 1994) found that during the winter (December, January, February) of an El Niño year there is an increased number of cyclonic weather systems over Europe – that is to say that the meteorological map features more low pressure systems, which are accompanied by their usual sort of weather. This results in colder weather over central and northern Europe, and increased winter precipitation in a band that runs from the British Isles to the Black Sea."
Not looking good for Canada, though. |
Been going through my old text books and I cant see how El Nino (a south pacific weather pattern after all) will effect temps over Europe, however I agree it does'nt look good for Canada!
I can also see it could raise rainfall across Europe (not bad for someone who loves snow!) but that is only if it heads our way over the north Atlantic and could be diverted by more local weather patterns.
| Whitegold wrote: |
| ajpaul wrote: |
| I'm sure I read that it's going to be an El Nino year. As a general rule, how does this tend to affect temps/precipitation in Europe? |
The last El Nino was in 2006 / 2007.
The next El Nino will be in 2009 / 2010. It is set to be a near-record.
Strong El Nino = heat.
Winter 2009 / 2010 in the Northern Hemisphere will be a warm one. |
Ok the El Nino prob needs to be taken into account but I cant take it as a prediction for the coming season, I look forward to being proved right or wrong!
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You know it makes sense.
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I'm hoping the El Nino won't affect Fernie too much this season, I've been looking at snowfall from the previous El Nino years and the 2006/07 season in Fernie received 359 inches of snow, the average for a season in Fernie being 348 inches/29feet.
In 2000/01, Fernie received only 178 inches & as far as I know this wasn't an El Nino year so fingers crossed Canada won't be too badly affected!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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How accurate are the ski clubs historic snow records ? I checked the week we were in Lech last year and there was certainly more snow than the ski club now says there was.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| genepi wrote: |
| rob@rar, Aah - I had put that unpleasantness to the back of my mind. I'm sorry brian no longer posts |
Yup, me too. Be nice to see him back in the winter, but I think he'd had his fill.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
The next El Nino will be in 2009 / 2010. It is set to be a near-record.
Strong El Nino = heat.
Winter 2009 / 2010 in the Northern Hemisphere will be a warm one.
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Fortunately most evidence points to a moderate El Nino at worst, though some people are claiming a 1998 style event. However we're miles behind the scale of the 98 El Nino just now.
The automatic assumption that El Nino means mild winters particularly for the UK and NW Europe needs some context. This has been true in the last 2-3 decades while the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) has been in the warm phase (which favours strong El-Ninos). The phase shift towards the cool phase of the PDO hinders El Nino's and a strong El Nino would be unusual, let alone a record.
Further on the relationship between El Nino's and mild winters, it breaks down in the previous cold phase of the PDO. The catch is, prior to satellite temperature measuring coming along in the 1970s, we simply don't know how accurate the measurements of the strength of El Nino's were - the further back in the records the more of a guestimate they are. It could be that strengths of El Nino's in still cool winters in NW Europe in the last cool PDO phase were over-recorded. Where as had they really been stronger, the winter's might have been milder.
Interesting times at the moment for watching the weather and climate trends, esp with a pro-longed solar minimum that could still be on course for a new Dalton Minimum!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Winterhighland, so that's a "wait and see" then?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Octobre
Du classique courant d’ouest. Des perturbations atlantiques traverseront les Alpes en apportant de la pluie, de grosses chutes de neige en moyenne montagne et forcément des journées ensoleillées parfois douces.
Novembre
Prédominance du courant de nord-ouest. Les perturbations apporteront des chutes de neige à toutes les altitudes : un bon début d’hiver.
Décembre
Poursuite d’un temps perturbé avec une alternance de froid neigeux du nord et de coups du sud doux et pluvieux.
Janvier 2010
Surprenante série de ce temps perturbé (à suivre dans les prochains bulletins). Mais, le temps restera perturbé, froid, souvent neigeux.
Février 2010
Poursuite d’un hiver très froid et neigeux…
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This is the french take on the winter which looks pretty good. Decemeber could be iffy but jan and feb look excellent and looks like you could get some good early turns in november if you're somewhere high
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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[quote="manicpb"]
| snowplow wrote: |
"A study of atmospheric weather conditions (Fraedrich, 1994) found that during the winter (December, January, February) of an El Niño year there is an increased number of cyclonic weather systems over Europe – that is to say that the meteorological map features more low pressure systems, which are accompanied by their usual sort of weather. This results in colder weather over central and northern Europe, and increased winter precipitation in a band that runs from the British Isles to the Black Sea."
Not looking good for Canada, though. |
Been going through my old text books and I cant see how El Nino (a south pacific weather pattern after all) will effect temps over Europe, however I agree it does'nt look good for Canada!
[quote="Whitegold"]
| ajpaul wrote: |
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I'm considering my first trip to Whistler over New Years , my other option is to go somewhere high in Europe. All this talk of El Nino inspired poor weather in Canada is making me very apporehensive. Should I be worried?? or is long term forecast likely to be bogus???
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Try looking up the snow record for el nino years. Though i doubt it would pose serious problems as they seem to get a lot more snow then the alps in the first place; a bad year there would still be decent here?
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| pam w wrote: |
| didn't really forecast a BBQ summer |
Temperatures in France have been 2C above average since mid March so at least for us it is a BBQ summer. Canicule at the moment. We've had also had the hottest night on record a few weeks ago when the temperature didn't drop below 34C overnight! The small glacier opposite the house has almost completely vanished this August.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| horgand wrote: |
I'm considering my first trip to Whistler over New Years , my other option is to go somewhere high in Europe. All this talk of El Nino inspired poor weather in Canada is making me very apprehensive. Should I be worried?? or is long term forecast likely to be bogus?? |
I would'nt let it effect my desicions ,however, it is pretty much fact that in an El Nino event (which could take in this season and the following season) does make the American side of the Pacific warm up more than normal.
Then again it is also fact that following an El Nino event, the American side will go colder than normal so maybe you should sit out this season and have your first visit in the year after the El Nino!
Once again I would not let it bother you but as Winterhighland said these things are interesting to follow!
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So, having painted my house white, what colour now........?
And what about the trees I planted?
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FAQ
for what its worth...
