 Poster: A snowHead
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The seven day forecasts in Metcheck seem to be all over the place.
I just got a shock as I went straight to the 7 days for ADH and it showed high temps and no snow but some rain.
Then I went to the 3 day forecast and its lowish temps and bucketing down.
Other resorts seem to be showing the same problems.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Michael B,
Think the forecast for the next fews days is very unsettled and changes regularily. Don't forget at best Metcheck updates daily but sometimes I have noticed them a few days behind. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I got really fed up with metcheck last year when we were panicking about early season conditions in st anton. It seemed to me that there was nearly always a lovely amount of snow due in about 3 days time but the closer that day came the smaller the predicted snow amount got or it disappeared altogether. I know that any forecast more than a day or so in advance is a bit unreliable but it felt cruel to keep raising our expectations. I now rely more on our very knowledgeable fellow snowheads or direct reports from resort websites.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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it felt cruel to keep raising our expectations.
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loatie, you're more likely to remember the cruel deceptions, but it's just as common to see forecast freezing levels dropping as the event gets closer (as they just have, in fact). Longer term modelling is obviously unreliable, but just as likely to be (from a skier's point of view) pessimistic as optimistic. Hence the roller coaster ride for those who look at the longer term (ie 4 - 6 day) forecasts. The "very knowledgeable" snowheads (and I hang on their every word too!) tend to say things like "huge dumps forecast in 5 days time, but who knows, could end up being a lot less" or "the forecast for next week may look warm and rainy, but there's plenty of uncertainty out there, and it could well change". Even when it's looking terrific, they temper their enthusiasm and our expectations with some human "ifs and buts" which are more easily understood than the indicators of uncertainty in the models themselves. It's so easy to get absurdly accurate looking numbers out of a computer model; "annual rate of economic growth in the third quarter of next year will be 2.5063%......."
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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It was the fact that the 2 forecasts were totally different for the same day. On the 7 day one tomorrow/Monday is really warm and no snow, on the 7 day one its heavy snow.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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I think there is a fault on the site. esp on the 7 day page, no graphics showing at all.
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Helen Beaumont, Good. That's what I was hoping.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Michael B, it has been like that (temp and precipitation charts included) for 2 days.
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THey have upgraded / changed their servers, and this seems to have thrown an almighty spaaner in the works.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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afcbtim, no correlation at all between 3 day and 7 day (usually some similarity). I have taken the 'stickie' off my website for the time being as it is useless info.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Helen Beaumont,
I agree
Checked for La Thuile today, 3 day shows rather a lot of snow, 7 day a week of temperatures around 18 degrees centigrade!
They need to sort things out, I have emailed, but to date no response!
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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All back up and running - with plenty of long black lines!!
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