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Do the mountan men really know more than the weather experts?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Back in November, http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?p=476132#476132

stanton wrote:
I just be in a meeting with a Swiss colleague who lives in Interlaken.

The word around town there thats coming down from old locals who live up in the mountains all there lives is not very good Sad Apparently they are never wrong.

There will be a little snow by Xmas/January and they are saying that the real winter will not start until at least February Sad


That comment attracted a lot of derision at the time, but as the snow is finally arriving it would appear to have been an accurate estimation.
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Ray Zorro,

Very Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The question is, what are they saying for next season? Just so I know when to book!
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I never thought I'd be hopeful that the winter would start in Feb, but lets hope they really are never wrong.
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Well, interesting question... My take is as follows:

1) Mountain men / locals / farmers etc. will have experience of recognising trends in patterns and phenomenen which will mean they can often make accurate assumptions based on the information they have from the past. But this does not define what will happen in the future. There are always years that buck the trends and I don't believe that local folklore will predict those.

2) The statement 'winter won't start properly until mid-Feb' is a very vague and unqualified statement that is impossible to prove right or wrong, so in that sense you could say they are never wrong! You could make that statement about every year except 2 I have ever been skiing (OK that's the past 15 years), none of which have been particularly similar to this year. It's a bit like fortune tellers who predict you will meet a stranger. Well yes, the minute you walk out the door you will meet many of them. It means absolutely very little.

That said, I do set a lot of store by local predictions (whether I'm in the alps, Wales, Scotland etc) as they do know how their exact geographical microclimate might react to a general weather pattern. I just don't think that the statement above really suggests that mountain men know better than the weather experts.

D, sitting firmly in the 'stop whinging it's really not all that bad' camp.
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I got the information from a colleague who lives in Interlaken in december its based on an old "farmers rule"

When theres early snow (Late Oct/Nov) followed by warm temps in Dec (heatwave) winter will be delayed until at least February.

He told me they (Farmers) actually hate this because it means a late winter finish & they cannot put there cows back on the hills.

Dont forget these farmers throughout history have passed down information (weather patterns,animal behaviour,land perm/frost) from generation to generation. Not relaying on any TV, Radio ..Internet
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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stanton wrote:
He told me they (Farmers) actually hate this
Farmers hate everything; too wet, too dry, too hot, too cold, too much snow, tooo few tourists, too little subsidy ...

As for weather forecasts, you could probably guess and do just as well as met men or mountain men.
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Red skoi at noight... ger orf moi land!!!!
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Red skoi at noight... F***ing barns on foire again!!!!
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stanton, yeah, right. Woteva.

What early snow? Don't recall any near Geneva/Chamonix/Morzine/Champoluc or any connecting roads in between...

Total dangly bits.

What's the weather going to do on March 22nd, 2009 at lunchtime then?

If patterns like that were really robust, they would have been recognised by now...
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David Murdoch wrote:
What early snow? Don't recall any near Geneva/Chamonix/Morzine/Champoluc or any connecting roads in between


If you didnt get early snow then the farmers rule will not apply.


You need to get out more Very Happy

There was early snow in Austria,


http://stantonamarlberg.blogs.com/st_anton_am_arlberg/2006/11/weie_gre.html#comments
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stanton, Laughing Laughing
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I think we should trust the 'OLD' people - they are always right - judging from most of the posts on this forum



<ducks>
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Scarpa wrote:
Red skoi at noight... F***ing barns on foire again!!!!


Bloody insurance premium'll be up again, mark moi words.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
debbi wrote:
I think we should trust the 'OLD' people - they are always right - judging from most of the posts on this forum



<ducks>


Very kind of you to say so.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
richmond wrote:
Scarpa wrote:
Red skoi at noight... F***ing barns on foire again!!!!


Bloody insurance premium'll be up again, mark moi words.


Which Roller shall oi take to post the claim form Pa?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The Local Farmers were right Very Happy
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