 brian
brian
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Thought this might be handy for weather watchers ....
I've found that Wetterzentrale has updated ensemble charts for locations across Europe where latitude and longitude are whole numbers,
so http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MS_745_ens.png , is lat 45.00 degrees, long 7.00 degrees, which turns out to just to the NE of Sestriere. I've mapped a few other locations.
46 - 7 is on the Swiss French border above Argentiere
45 - 6 is on the edge of the Ecrins park a few km West of L2A
46 - 8 is on the Swiss Italian border near Saas Fee
57 - -5 is just across the Great Glen from Nevis above Loch Arkaig. If only Aonach Mor was 1000m higher (deep sigh) ...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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sorry brian but i cant make head no tail of this even though it looks the biz! Pls can you break it down in layman terms.
cheers
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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harry, I just bumped a thread where some nice folk explained all about it, it should help make more sense!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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HARRYMAC2702, here's something I posted earlier which explains the GFS graph
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Top group of lines is temperature, bottom set is precipitation. Within the top set the thick red line is the seasonal average. The other lines are all forecast data, with slightly different variables. These are all forecast at the same time, but the variation in some of the criteria for the forecast account for the possible differences betwwen these lines. The slightly ticker white line is the average of this ensemble forecast. When all the ensemble lines are close together there is high confidence about the forecast, but obviously when there is a lot of divergence there is less confidence. The blue line is the control line - someone else, skanky or brian perhaps, will have to explain that. The temperature is the forecast for the 850mb point (approx 1500m, subject to some atmospheric variation).
The bottom set of lines is the same principle of an ensemble forecast for precipitation. White line is the average, and obviosly a red line for seasonal average would be fairly meaningless, so it isn't included. |
Corrections to my explanation would be welcome.
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rob@rar, so how can we interpret this in terms of snowfall?
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HARRYMAC2702, the bottom set of lines gives the amount of rainfall forecast in mm - a very rough rule of thumb is to multiply this by around 8-10 if the temperature is going to be low enough for snow, so a forecast of 5mm of rain will probably lead to 4 or 5 cm of snow. If the different forecasts in that ensemble are are closely aligned then there is a high level of confidence in the overall forecast, but if there is a lot of divergence then it's still a bit of a guessing game as to what the weather might actually do. You rarely get much convergence in the forecasts much more than 3 or 4 days out, so even now (Tuesday afternoon) its difficult to say with any confidence what the weather will be like on the weekend.
This thread gives some basic info on where there are good sources of meteo data, and how to read them.
Last edited by After all it is free  on Wed 15-11-06 9:16; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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HARRYMAC2702 - it's worth saying that 1000m gives around 6 degrees celcius temperature loss.
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brian
brian
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PhillipStanton, it's actually just above Argentiere and Le Tour, not that far from the PdS mind you.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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snow-forecast has downgraded the amount of snow again...........
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You know it makes sense.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| snow-forecast has downgraded the amount of snow again........... |
As skanky pointed out in another thread, the high pressure system over the central Med. may keep the cold weather fronts from crossing over the Alps this weekend. The position of the HP and the track that the front take is still uncertain, hence snowforecast.com's vacillating over snowfall amounts. I'm not holding out much hope for more than 10 or 15 cm, and only at higher altitudes.
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brian
brian
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| rob@rar wrote: |
| so a forecast of 5mm of rain will probably lead to 4 or 5 cm of snow. |
That's about right generally. However, I don't think GFS takes orographic effects into account in its precip forecasts. This gives more snow as moist air is forced upwards over windward slopes but consequently less on the lee side (rain shadow).
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Poster: A snowHead
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bump...
Any chance of sticky-ing this please, mods?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| PhillipStanton wrote: |
| http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MS_746_ens.png - Morzine / Les Gets / Avoriaz |
So am i right in saying, there looks to be a lot of snow falling on the 6/7/8/9 December (Next week) ?
Its really intresting to see the Info people provide, but some of us need it simple - Snow or No Snow and if so how much !!! 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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some interesting changes to these graphs today....looks like it might start to get cooler from 16th onwards and the high temps may not be as severe as they originally looked....  having said all that even 3 days out things have not been so sure so we'll just have to wait and see how it unfolds.....
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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skinutter, 'cooler from the 16th out' is good. All this snow dancing I'm doing must be having an effect (other than just terrifying the cat) 
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keep it up... i'm dancing here just as hard
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| PhillipStanton wrote: |
| http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MS_746_ens.png - Morzine / Les Gets / Avoriaz |
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MS_746_ens.png
I know its a long way off but dosen't the blue line show the forecasted temp?
Burrrr cold!! at least theres snow due,
Yes Yes at the moment of course just before anyone says its a long way off and could change, us xmas holiday skiers are looking at this more than ever at the moment
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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CrowJersey, yes. The heavy blue line is what's called the "control" run (it's what the colourful charts asctually show) but the control run is sometimes what's called an "outlier" (eg it is at the extreme top or bottom of the predicted outcomes) and this is definitely an "outlier"! the thick grey line is the median of all the runs, and is a better indicator of the overall state of play for the chart.
Having said all that, very promising, looks cold, let's hope it stays with this setup!
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carled, not sure given the 18Z charts that emsemble will remain as cool as it did at 12Z.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Oh it'll swing around all over the place before it settles down, but I'd rather it started from where it is and crept towards normal than started that far above the norm and had to come down!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Tue 12-12-06 8:38; edited 1 time in total
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brian
brian
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You know it makes sense.
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Just hoping Brian, just hoping
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Can anyone either tell me how to, or map a GFS ensemble for the 3V
Cheers muchly
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Poster: A snowHead
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PS Meribel is 45.25 N, 6.34 E
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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careld,
Cheers
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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bump
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MS_746_ens.png
To those weather readers and watchers, the forecasted "Dump" on the chart for around 30/31st any chance it may come forward by a 2/3 days to help us christmas skiers?
always hoping
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CrowJersey, a few days ago there wasn't even that much precipitation showing on the charts... Suffice to say that you've been looking at these things long enough to know by now... that snow will disappear & reappear in varying amounts over the next week or so. Get excited about it if it's still showing in a week's time or so mate.
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yes carled understood but look i asked as christams skiers are 23-30th dec and at the mo no snow forecast for that period
i just asking the question, so feel free the answer the question 
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I did... it'll change. It's not that predictable at this stage. It could get heavier, weaker, disappear altogether, happen three days earlier, three days later, not happen at all... Sorry, I know it's not what you want to hear, but look on the bright side... there's as much chance of it happening earlier as there is of it happening later... I thought you'd given up on worrying anyway - and were just going to enjoy whatever you got out there? 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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i am, its just the final push, havent looked at it all weekend but saw the charts and just thought
one last punt before the off , thanks carled always good to hear your views
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all the current gfs ensembles seem to show signs of some weather activity from december 29/30 onwards? as i am off to the puy saint vincent in the southern alps on new years eve,am i going to be lucky or are we still too far away yet to be hopeful? the charts seem to have been pretty consistent for a good few days now, so what do all the 
weather experts think? is there a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel predictions please!!!!!
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