 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Ha. I give up with that lot. With very few exceptions they are so far up their own arrises in there, it's not true. Generally speaking, if it's not happening in England, they just don't want to know about it. I'm seeing some exceptionally promising signs in the gfs charts for the alps still from about the 20th/21st. It's getting close to the reliable timeframe and I still reckon it's looking much colder and snowy. People going this week, unlucky... people going next week (starting 20th/21st), if the snow doesn't disrupt your skiing too much, you could be in for great week. Fingers crossed that the temps continue to stay cold beyond the end of the current forecasts...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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carled, do you reckon the snow will reach andorra or is it still borderline ?
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Andorra is borderline... The cold is coming down from the North East and Andorra is very close to the mild muck affecting the UK. It could still benefit a bit, but not as much as places further North and East, I don't think... but I'm an enthusiastic amateur, not an expert so I could be way wrong.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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carled, I agree with you totally. The current GFS models are looking very encouraging indeed. So much so that I am starting to feel excitedly confident for when I fly out on the 27th January. Cheers for all your help and guidance in learning how to interpret the GFS models etc. It feels good to finally be able to understand what you, skanky, brian and others are talking about.
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excellant news,is it possible to say roughly how long this one will last,im out on the 27th aswell.
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notverygoodatskiing, my suspicion is that if the models turn out to be correct then the snow that falls between the 20th - 27th Jan should be sufficient to ensure a fantastic week for those of us flying on the 27th Jan. Who knows, it may even snow some more the week commencing the 27th. Now wouldn't that be a real treat!  However, the current models don't go as far ahead as that so we can only hope.
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im really hoping for a decent dump of snow before the 27th,and would really like a good dump while im there,wouldnt mind if i had to give up a day or two on the slopes to see it as ive never experienced a good fall,only the 2 cm's a year i see here  (maybe i just want too much)but what ever the conditions it will be a great holiday,where are you going hornster?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Hornster, I hope your right as I'm out there on the 27th too. Where are you going? I'm in Pas.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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carled, this more the French Alps or are we talking Austria here as well?
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Well. Last two runs yesterday weren't good. However, one of them (the 18z I think) appeared to be a mild outlier (of all the bits of string in the ensembles graph, a mild outlier is one that is kind of out on it's own at the extreme top of the chart - likewise you can get spectacular looking charts caused by the run following a cold outlier at the bottom - very few of the other ensemble runs support it, hence it's unlikey to happen... but still possible)
The 6z run this morning is great from about the 21st to the 24th/25th, with the high pressure over the uk & Ireland and the low over Italy/the Med causing a lovely cold plume coming down from the arctic over Scandinavia and into the alps, but then two high pressure systems join forces above Russia, forming an impenetrable block for the arctic air to get through and the cold air is cut off and marooned, to slowly sink southwards leaving warm air pooling in an enormous european high that covers the whole continent pretty much. That situation is not good and looks to happen on or just after the weekend of the 27th/28th. If the high pressure centred itself over Scandinavia then it would allow the clockwise circulating air (air circulates clockwise around high pressure systems and anti-clockwise around low pressure systems in the Northern hemisphere) to pull down cold air from the Arctic over europe, but with a greater European high, the air is forced much further East (hence the cold temps in Turkey/Greece area) than is usual.
Still, a week or so of colder temps and some snow before a return to warmer (but not as catastrophically mild as will be happening this week) is better than poke in the eye with a sharp stick, eh?
There's precipitation forecast all over the place in the alps for that week, even including Andorra, so all should see the benefits... just a bit concerned about that blocking high showing in the future, hoping it'll go away on subsequent charts. Also concerned about the effects the upcoming week is about to have on the slopes. It's gonna get WARM!
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You know it makes sense.
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carled, very good summary of the models. I was knocked for suggesting two weeks ago that the GFS models were forcasting two weeks of very mild weather, even warm, this has so far been spot on. The GFS has been very accurate this season and from next weekend temps are getting down to what they should be and there is precipitation forecast, my only worry would be the that it will be cold enough but the precipitation will head in a different direction. That said its looking better and I guess if this gets downgraded now and doesn't arrive we could be facing a bleak February. Fingers crossed.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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thanx carled,heres hoping for the cold stuff,still looks like it will be a good week before i go on the 27th,might get sunburnt while im there though
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Hornster, That's a long way East! Oh, hang on... you're the one going to Bansko, aren't you? Well.. up until the 23rd... a bit warm, but from then on, the ensemble middle is around freezing or below and there's precipitation around. Looks good enough for snow to me, but a lot of ensemble disagreement towards the end. A few members are plumping for mild, but not many, so fingers crossed, a bit of fresh white stuff there. Just need it to continue cold afterwards.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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carled, yes, i'm the one going to Bansko. I didn't think it is looking too bad at this stage. Would I be correct in saying that if it carries on consolidating between now and a few days time, is it likely to be more certain for a decent amount of snowfall?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Flaming crikey! I know it's called the "pub run" as it tends to get drunk and go off on one and, at the time of posting I have no idea if it's a cold outlier (see earlier posts to learn what a cold or warm outlier is if you don't understand) but the 18z is an absolute corker of a run! Yes please! Snow & cold EVERYWHERE, Greenland high forming, northerlies & easterlies developing... all very, very good news for cold & snow.
I really hope the 00z doesn't spoil the party and that this turned out to be a drunken cold outlier...
Snow for UK too... any part... from about Weds on if things continue like this...
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