 Poster: A snowHead
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All this talk of seasons moving or reeduced annual precipitation and global warming etc (Perhaps read paranoid ski enthusiasts at the mercy of the vagaries of the weather) has got me wondering whether there is any record of how much of the white stuff falls on our beloved Alps each year and whether there is a trend upwards downwards or merely that it fluctuates. (As I suspect)
I would be very interested (in an anorak way I suppose) to learn if anyone has been monitoring the precipitation rather than the glacial reduction or temperature change.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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if your a member of the ski club of g.b. you can see snow depths over the last 13 seasons for each resort on their website
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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For Austria you can get alot of info from here for Avalanches plus ots of other info
http://www.lawine.at/tirol/index.html?id=7
There is a site but I forgot it name that has historic details going back to before early 1900's
You can do a search on Austrian search engines with these words.
Österreich schneebericht Geschichte Aufzeichnungen
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| CANV CANVINGTON wrote: |
| if your a member of the ski club of g.b. you can see snow depths over the last 13 seasons for each resort on their website |
From the url, I don't think the historical snow reports are members only - here's the link if anyone wants to try it.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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achilles, just tried - I'm invited to log in. 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Just looking at the SCGB figures for Tignes (lower slopes), and using simple averages for the four weeks in Dec, Jan and Feb for the years 1995. 2000 and 2005 the figures are:
1995 - Dec 29cm, Jan 82 cm, Feb 120 cm
2000 - Dec 31cm, Jan 66 cm, Feb 77 cm
2005 - Dec 33 cm, Jan 75 cm, Feb 85cm
These measurements are very crude and it's a very small sample, but IMO it doesn't show a consistent pattern of reducing snowdepths, if anything the early snow is increasing.
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Kitzbuhel
November - April weekly averages
Nov December January February March April
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Upper
slopes (cm) 23 35 45 53 66 79 83 86 100 111 119 126 136 137 135 135 133 120 128 108
Lower
slopes (cm) 7 10 12 17 26 31 30 32 38 45 47 43 43 37 34 24 17 7 4 n/a
Ave. snowfall for last 13 years
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Mayrhofen
November - April weekly averages
Nov December January February March April
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Upper
slopes (cm) 5 25 48 75 86 93 98 102 105 109 123 123 139 132 142 129 128 112 126 94
Lower
slopes (cm) 1 6 8 12 15 17 17 17 20 22 25 31 29 24 18 10 7 6 4 n/a
Ave. snowfall for last 13 years
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Kaiser wrote: |
All this talk of seasons moving or reeduced annual precipitation and global warming etc (Perhaps read paranoid ski enthusiasts at the mercy of the vagaries of the weather) has got me wondering whether there is any record of how much of the white stuff falls on our beloved Alps each year and whether there is a trend upwards downwards or merely that it fluctuates. (As I suspect)
I would be very interested (in an anorak way I suppose) to learn if anyone has been monitoring the precipitation rather than the glacial reduction or temperature change. |
Check out my earlier analysis on historical precipitation in Val d'Isere and Killington:
http://www.snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=20241&highlight=killington
The stats clearly show total seasonal snowfall has dropped by roughly 10% to 20% over the last 2 decades.
The Killington season, in particular, has shortened dramatically. Killington opened on Nov 23 this year, its latest start-date in history.
The world is warming up. That is almost beyond question now.
The difficulty lies in determing who is responsible, man or nature. Given that the Earth was 33% covered in ice 10k years ago, falling to just 10% in 2005, I am inclined to go with the thesis that global warming is a natural, unavoidable, cyclical phenomenon, which is being slightly sped up by human intervention.
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Whitegold, Didn't I read somewhere that it was only the greenhouse gas pollution that was holding the next ice-age at bay? maybe the pendulum may start to swing back....
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Does anyone else remember the doom-mongers telling us we were about to enter another ice age in the 70s? The whole debate is in danger of being reduced to the level of Private Fraser - "We're all doooooomed!"
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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yes ,, that and that all the oil would be gone by 1980 and the planet would starve when the population reached 4 billion and that robots would be doing all domestic chores by 1990.. unfortunatly no one mentioned lending bill gates 25,000 dollars for 10 per cent of the equity to start up his new business
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You know it makes sense.
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I generally subscribe to the matrix observation that we humans are merely a virus (albeit one I am happy to continue) however I just wondered whether the snow was still/more or less coming down in the same quantities regardless of temperature and glacier retreat.
Naturally I hope we are doing everything we can to eliminate the human "footprint" on these trends, I certainly travel only by train now - partly for the benifit of carbon emmisions saved and partly for the extra two days skiing.
I have examined the snow reports on SCGB ad nausea but my enfeabled brain can only compute so much and I was hoping some eggheads had done the hard work for me and that one of you good souls had found the time/website to deliver the goods to alleviate the nauseating doubt a good many of us suffer that skiing may become a fond memory.
I shall look forward to some kind and hopefully well informed soul showig me I have many seasons to look forward to (should I not fall off a cliff this season or worse still become incapacitated in a cycling accident on the Old Bent Toad)
Anyone got a good name for my new neo fascist party in favour of eliminating all pressures on the bountiful covering of the winter wonderland?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Gordyjh wrote: |
| Does anyone else remember the doom-mongers telling us we were about to enter another ice age in the 70s? The whole debate is in danger of being reduced to the level of Private Fraser - "We're all doooooomed!" |
With respect, that is moron talk. Nobody in the entire thread mentioned impending doom. Just a few simple observations. Snowfall in some parts of the world has been diminishing tangibly for a couple decades. Ice has been melting globally for 10 - 15k years. There was once a glacier in North London. Now it is gone. That is a longterm, indisputable trend of global warming.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I can't tell about other places really, but thinking of my own home town in Finland it is evident that snowfall is less now than it used to be. The massive local cross-country ski event has not taken place regularly anymore in the last 15 years as it used to when I was a kid - simply because there has not been enough snow anymore. The local slopes are being artificially snowed as natural snow is not sufficient to keep the slopes open for even three months.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Kaiser wrote: |
however I just wondered whether the snow was still/more or less coming down in the same quantities regardless of temperature and glacier retreat.
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Read my lips -- total seasonfall snowfall is down by 10% to 20% in parts of France and North America over the last 20 years. In some parts of Italy, it is down by as much as 40% since the 1970s. I am sure there are some, but I have yet to see any multi-decade trends showing higher snowfall. Most longterm historical measurements for ice and snow appear to point down at the present time. Whether this will continue in the future is anyone's guess.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Whitegold,
| Quote: |
With respect, that is moron talk. Nobody in the entire thread mentioned impending doom. Just a few simple observations. Snowfall in some parts of the world has been diminishing tangibly for a couple decades. Ice has been melting globally for 10 - 15k years. There was once a glacier in North London. Now it is gone. That is a longterm, indisputable trend of global warming.
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And the Romans grew grapes in Yorkshire.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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SnowFall is definitly down. 4-5 M was normal in The Arlberg.
Its pretty obvious snowfall is down. The resorts know it, otherwise we would not of seen the huge investment in artifiical snowmaking systems in virtually every resort. Without these systems the banks would not lend another cent to build/renew another lift , just to risky.
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Fri 24-11-06 11:54; edited 2 times in total
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
And the Romans grew grapes in Yorkshire.
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They still grow now!
http://www.englishwineproducers.com/leventhorpe.htm
There have been various cooler and warmer periods over the last 2000 years but it's safe to say that since around 1850 europe has definitely warmed up, and if it carries on doing so it'll be bad news for low lying european ski resorts. Personally I think the human race will be able to cope with whatever happens to the weather - we'll just be skiing in greenland or alaska...
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Plake, the problem with those northerly places is that there's limited daylight in winter - and that's just Yorkshire. 
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laundryman, they can use the money thay save on not needing snow makers on floodights.. ok it may confuse hibernating polar bears but there you go..
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Plake wrote: |
| Quote: |
And the Romans grew grapes in Yorkshire.
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They still grow now!
http://www.englishwineproducers.com/leventhorpe.htm
There have been various cooler and warmer periods over the last 2000 years but it's safe to say that since around 1850 europe has definitely warmed up, and if it carries on doing so it'll be bad news for low lying european ski resorts. Personally I think the human race will be able to cope with whatever happens to the weather - we'll just be skiing in greenland or alaska... |
It seems that English grape growing in the past is subject to many factors (church mass for example), so is not the best climate proxy. However, it is currently "thriving and has a geographical extent and quality levels that are unprecedented in recorded history".
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With regards to snowfall, this paper looks interesting, though we only have the abstract:
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| Abstract A study of snow statistics over the past 50 years at several climatological stations in the Swiss Alps has highlighted periods in which snow was either abundant or not. Periods with relative low snow amounts and duration are closely linked to the presence of persistent high surface pressure fields over the Alpine region during late Fall and in Winter. These high pressure episodes are accompanied by large positive temperature anomalies and low precipitation, both of which are unfavorable for snow accumulation during the Winter. The fluctuations of seasonal to annual pressure in the Alpine region is strongly correlated with anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, which is a measure of the strength of the westerly flow over the Atlantic. This implies that large-scale forcing, and not local or regional factors, plays a dominant role in controling the timing and amount of snow in the Alps, as evidenced by the abundance or dearth of snow over several consecutive years. Furthermore, since the mid-1980s, the length of the snow season and snow amount have substantially decreased, as a result of pressure fields over the Alps which have been far higher and more persistent than at any other time this century. A detailed analysis of a number of additional Alpine stations for the last 15 years shows that the sensitivity of the snow-pack to climatic fluctuations diminishes above 1750 m. In the current debate on anthropogenically-induced climatic change, this altitude is consistent with other studies and estimates of snow-pack sensitivity to past and projected future global warming. |
The author, Martin Beniston has done some other work in this area, but oddly, that above paper is not in his list of publications. However this one (pdf) is and it discusses the projected changes of snowpack over the Swiss Alps based on global warming temperature projections. I've only had time to glance at bits of it, but figure 4 shows a minor, but distinct downward trend in all but one site. Anyway it's a start and I'm sure a search on Google scholar would provide more info of relevance to the subject.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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The article talks about grape growing being a poor proxy for temperature (thus dismissing any "contrarian" climate view) and then ludicrously talks about "quality" in support of its own case, as if other factors have nothing do with the quality of present day wine compared to that of medieval or Roman times!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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That about sums it up, so in my long term quest to move somewhere French speaking to earn a crust and enjoy the vista - I should aim above 2000m.
Time to start searching I feel...
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No it doesn't. This is an article in response to those who say that wine growing was better in the past therefore England was warmer. It's saying that doesn't necessarily mean anything, and anyway wine growing wasn't better in the past.
It says "so whether vineyards are a good proxy for climate or not, you certainly can't use the supposed lack of present day English vineyards in any serious discussion about climate" as there is not lack of present day vineyards. The previous article also says:
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| So what should one conclude from this? Well, one shouldn't be too dogmatic that English temperatures are now obviously above a medieval peak - the impact of confounding factors in wine production precludes such a clear conclusion (and I am pretty agnostic with regards to the rest of the evidence of whether northern Europe was warmer 1000 years than today). However, one can conclude that those who are using the medieval English vineyards as a 'counter-proof' to the idea of present day global warming are just blowing smoke (or possibly drinking too much Californian). If they are a good proxy, then England is warmer now, and if they are not.... well, why talk about them in this context at all? |
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You know it makes sense.
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| skanky wrote: |
| I've only had time to glance at bits of it, but figure 4 shows a minor, but distinct downward trend in all but one site. |
Since about 1980. However, if you compare with the late 1950s, current levels seem to be about the same (in all but one site, where it's distinctly higher now).
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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laundryman, yes and figure 2's temperature anomalies follow a similar pattern (though there are - as you'd expect on a regional level variations). This pattern is also remarkably similar to the global anomaly graph, which is well explained. It would be interesting to see data previous to the 1900s, but I guess such data is not around or reliable. That Beniston himself seems to think it's all well within the annual variability, though there is a possible noticeable effect of the heat:
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Figure 4 illustrates the manner in which the alpine snow-pack has responded in the past decades to the degree of climatic change experienced in the Alps (Beniston et al., 2003). The data for each of the selected sites shows that while there is a strong interannual variability, overall the trends in snow amount have not changed substantially; this is because the rate of warming that has occurred in the course of the 20th century is still relatively modest
compared to what is projected to take place in the future, so that snow still falls during the winter months at most locations. At elevations below about 1200 m, there has been a reduction in the total amount of snow and also in the duration of the snow season since the mid-1980s, but this remains well within the bounds of annual variability despite the strong warming that has intervened particularly in winter since about 1985. Sa¨ ntis, like other sites above 2000 m, has experienced an increase in the amount of snow; this could indeed be related to warmer temperatures and certainly more precipitation in the last two decades that has fallen in the form of snow at high elevations (thus accumulating more snow over a longer season) and rain at low elevations (thus reducing the potential for snow accumulation). |
I'd missed that bit.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Just skimming quickly through the week 6 figures for Jackson Hole, I don't get the impression of marked decline. And I wonder what New Zealand's figure are - the last time I checked, a glacier was actually expanding there, but I can't find historic snowfall patterns.
I don't doubt that thee is global warming, and that European snowfall has declined. Maybe that snow fall pattern has not been so marked elsewhere, though.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Yes it's worth reiterating from the above quote that higher up, the differences in temperature (at least so far) are not enough to affect whether precipitation falls as snow or not, and if the precipitation patterns change to bring increased precipitation, then you will get more snow up there.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Based on the all the information from the above thread, one can say with reasonable certainty that:
1. Ice and glacier coverage worldwide is DOWN dramatically over the last 15k years;
2. Air temperatures worldwide have RISEN tangibly during the last 50 - 150 years;
3. Snowfall in many parts of the world is FLAT to down over the past 20 - 100 years.
Two of these three key indicators are pointing down, while one is flat or perhaps down.
In short, most of the past and present indicators paint a grim picture for the future of snowsports.
The past can't predict the future, of course, but these stats don't give out much hope.
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Fri 24-11-06 14:51; edited 1 time in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| skanky wrote: |
| Yes it's worth reiterating from the above quote that higher up, the differences in temperature (at least so far) are not enough to affect whether precipitation falls as snow or not, and if the precipitation patterns change to bring increased precipitation, then you will get more snow up there. |
Agreed. This is a bit of a no-brainer. You would expect higher elevations to be the last effected. It is much colder up top, so they have more scope to heat up by 5 or 10 degs before reaching melting-point. Lower down is closer to 0c, so it has far less wiggle room.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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More on snowfall cover reduction (again, remember that this is five years old): http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/061.htm#2251
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| Satellite records indicate that the Northern Hemisphere annual snow-cover extent (SCE) has decreased by about 10% since 1966 largely due to decreases in spring and summer since the mid-1980s over both the Eurasian and American continents (Figure 2.13a; Robinson, 1997, 1999). Winter and autumn SCE show no statistically significant change. Reduction in snow cover during the mid- to late 1980s was strongly related to temperature increases in snow covered areas (Figure 2.13b). There is a highly significant interannual (+0.6) and multi-decadal correlation between increases in the Northern Hemisphere spring land temperature and a reduction in the Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover since data have been available (1966). Snow cover extent has decreased about 10% since 1966. The improvements in the quantity and quality of the visible satellite imagery used to produce the operational snow-cover product cannot account for the observed changes in snow cover. |
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| In recent decades, snowfall has also been heavier to the lee of the North American Great Lakes than earlier in the century (Leathers and Ellis, 1996). These findings are in line with observations from Canada and the former Soviet Union, reflecting a trend towards increased precipitation over the mid-latitude lands in the Northern Hemisphere (Groisman and Easterling, 1994; Brown and Goodison, 1996; Ye et al., 1998). |
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Be slightly careful using the Skiclub's figures for comparisons of ski seasons. Their figures come from skifrance.fr and are the Tourist Board snow depths so include man made snow cover. The tourist board figures may also not be that accurate.
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FAQ
